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IWM trade ideas

IWM: Could Be a Gap Fill Day Today🔍 Posted by WaverVanir International LLC Looking at IWM on the 15-minute chart, price action remains ambiguous — we’re caught in a range where traditional technical indicators are providing limited directional clarity. However, our proprietary Decision Support System (DSS) is signaling a potential move based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model outputs. While human sentiment and chart structure may hesitate, machine learning is beginning to lean bullish. 🔹 Key Notes: No clear breakout yet from this consolidation zone. Volume remains subdued, signaling indecision. LSTM forecasting engine from our DSS suite is tilting slightly bullish over the next 1–2 hours. Awaiting confirmation from VWAP and liquidity sweeps before a higher conviction entry. ⚠️ Short-term traders: stay nimble. Machine guidance suggests preparing for a breakout, but price confirmation is critical. 🧠 “When human emotion falters, data continues.” — WaverVanir DSS
AMEX:IWMLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Russel 2000 Weekly PotentailVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all. This week with AMEX:IWM you can see that last week trending bi-weekly markets were more volatile than our monthly trending values. This could indicate regression to quarterly means, but for now shows a 15.02% premium advantage over current IV per move. Bi-weekly, is as of now, only 10.81% off it's quarterly trend. However, it's important to observe that volatility can still consolidate under monthly in a poetic dance to coil up the monthly more on it's path in regression. This is why in my charts you will notice a 'coiling' value under both HV10 and HV21 values. BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't forget to circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
AMEX:IWM
by splitmyIVandmelt
IWM: Going to pump? Quick trade setup**IWM 15m – Smart Money Concepts + ORB Breakdown** _Published by WaverVanir_International_LLC on May 14, 2025_ **Setup** - ORB (09:30–09:45) established supply at **209.30** (Weak High) and demand near **206.62–206.27**. - Smart Money Concepts zones: - **Premium (Supply):** 209.30 - **Equilibrium (Fair Value):** 208.52 - **Discount (Demand):** 206.57–206.21 **Price Action** 1. **Break of Structure (BOS)** below the recent consolidation low signals bearish continuation. 2. Retracement tested the **38.2–61.8% Fibonacci** levels (~208.67–208.09), aligning with Equilibrium (Investopedia, n.d.-a). 3. Failed reclaim of Premium confirms seller strength. **Trade Plan** - **Entry:** Short on bounce failure at Equilibrium (~207.80) - **Stop-Loss:** Above Premium (209.30) - **Targets:** 1. Discount Zone: 206.57–206.21 2. Extended: 205.71 (1.618 Fib) **Risk/Reward:** ≥2:1 Stay disciplined—only trade with defined risk. GLTA! 🚀
AMEX:IWMLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
$IWM, small caps, not YET giving the "all clear"AMEX:IWM is the lone index still not in the clear 🚩 — backtesting its 200dma today and tagging the weekly mid-BB , just like in '22. Will it matter by week's end? If not, the bull is likely back across the board 🐂 This week's #CPI (Consumer Price Index) and #PPI (Producer Price Index) prints could significantly influence market direction across major indices — AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:IWM — especially with rate cut expectations in flux. 🧵Here's how: 1. Hot CPI or PPI (above expectations): AMEX:SPY : Likely to pull back as sticky inflation pressures broader S&P names, especially rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities. NASDAQ:QQQ : Could see sharper downside—tech stocks (many of which are high duration assets) are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations. AMEX:IWM : Likely the hardest hit. Small caps suffer from tighter financial conditions and depend more on domestic borrowing costs. 🟥 Result: Bearish across the board, with small caps underperforming. 2. Cool CPI or PPI (below expectations): AMEX:SPY : Broad lift, particularly in consumer discretionary and financials. NASDAQ:QQQ : Strong rally—mega cap tech loves the prospect of lower yields. AMEX:IWM : Outperforms if cooling inflation suggests easing ahead, since it's more leveraged to rate cycles and domestic growth. 🟩 Result: Bullish, with small caps possibly leading a relief rally. 3. In-line CPI/PPI : Markets may stay choppy or consolidate, with AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ more stable. AMEX:IWM remains at risk of drifting lower unless there’s a strong dovish narrative from the Fed or other macro catalysts. With small caps already lagging, this week’s inflation data could either validate its bearish divergence or spark a rotation rally if inflation AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:VIX $ES_F $NQ_F $RTY_F TVC:TNX NASDAQ:TLT TVC:DXY #Tariffs #Stocks
AMEX:IWMShort
by KobesyTrades
IWM: ShortRussell 2000 ETF | 15-Min Chart | May 8, 2025 🚨 0.5–0.618 Fib Retracement Completed Price has tapped into a key Fibonacci confluence zone (0.5–0.618), overlapping with previous CHoCH and unmitigated supply. This zone has historically triggered distribution phases on lower timeframes. 🔻 Technical Setup: Price rejected from 198.4–198.7 zone CHoCH and EQH levels form a liquidity trap above Targeting demand near 193.78 (Fib extension 1.382 + historical support) 📊 Macro Context: US Q1 GDP: -0.3% (contraction) Core Inflation: Still sticky at 2.6% Jobs Market: Strong, 177K added in April Fed Today: Likely no cut, but any hawkish Powell tone could trigger a sharp risk-off move, benefiting this short bias. 🎯 Trade Idea: Bias: Bearish Entry: 198.35–198.70 (current level) TP1: 197.43 TP2: 193.78 Invalidation: Break & hold above 199.50 ⚠️ Wait for Powell @ 2:30 PM ET before scaling in. Volatility will spike. #IWM #Russell2000 #Fed #SmartMoneyConcepts #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #LuxAlgo #RiskOff
AMEX:IWMShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
IWM: 1Hr UpdateIWM is showing signs of short-term exhaustion after rejecting near $198. A break of the rising trendline suggests a pullback is in play. The $187.99 level is key support – a bounce here could trigger the next leg up toward $200.68. 🧠 Trade Idea: Monitor price action near $188 for long entries targeting $200. Stop below $186. ⚠️ Bearish confirmation only if we lose $187 decisively. 🔍 Probability Setup: 🔸 Bullish Bounce → 65% 🔸 Direct Breakout → 15% 🔸 Breakdown → 20% 📅 May 1, 2025 #IWM #Russell2000 #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #ETF
AMEX:IWM
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
IWM: Trade PlanTechnical Analysis: Rising Wedge formation clearly visible on the 15-min chart, typically a bearish reversal pattern. Major horizontal resistance at $200.78 — a strong previous breakdown level, now acting as a supply zone. Plan: Short near $200.78 with stop-loss slightly above the upper wedge boundary (~$202-203). Target Zones: First target: ~$190 Second target: ~$185 if momentum increases. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are beginning to show early signs of bearish divergence — momentum fading while price grinds higher. Fundamental Context (April 28, 2025): Macro Risk: Small-caps (Russell 2000) under pressure as investors anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth Q2 2025. Treasury yields remain elevated → Higher financing costs disproportionately hurt smaller companies (Russell 2000 heavily debt-sensitive). Earnings Season: Mixed earnings for small and mid-cap companies; many struggling to beat analyst expectations. Federal Reserve Outlook: Futures pricing only a ~12% probability of a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch Tool, 2025). "Higher for longer" interest rate environment is a headwind for IWM. Market Sentiment: Risk appetite cooling as VIX (volatility index) starts ticking up from multi-month lows. Summary: IWM faces a confluence of technical resistance, a bearish chart pattern, and growing fundamental pressure. Watching closely for rejection at $200.78 to initiate a short position with a measured risk/reward setup. Hashtags: #IWM #Russell2000 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortSetup #BearishWedge #SmallCaps #StockMarket2025 #MacroAnalysis
AMEX:IWMShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
6
IWM: Short SetupPublished by Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 1, 2025 Thesis: Short-term weakness is emerging on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( AMEX:IWM ) as momentum fades following a steep vertical rally. A breakdown below the mid-band could trigger further downside into key support zones. 🔍 Technical Breakdown Chart: 15-minute timeframe Trend: Bearish short-term momentum Key Levels: Resistance: $195.64 (session high) Mid-range Support: $194.45 (VWAP/mid-band) Critical Demand Zone: $192.87 Indicators: Price has pierced the upper Bollinger band and is now retreating toward the midline. Strong rejection candle formed at the recent high, signaling buyer exhaustion. Visual downward projection aligns with the VWAP deviation bands, reinforcing mean reversion expectations. 🧠 Probability Outlook Bearish Continuation: 65% probability Trigger: Break and close below $194.45 Sideways Consolidation: 25% probability Trigger: Price holds above VWAP zone Bullish Reversal: 10% probability Trigger: Break back above $195.64 with volume 🔧 Strategy Short bias favored with target at $192.87 Stop-loss: Above $195.80 Watch for increased volatility near macro catalysts (e.g., Fed rate decisions) 🧭 Stay disciplined. We trade probabilities, not certainties. 💬 Drop your thoughts and setups below 👇 #IWM #Russell2000 #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BollingerBands #MeanReversion #StockMarket #ETF #WavervanirDSS #MarketOutlook #QuantitativeTrading
AMEX:IWMShort
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
4
Market Update - 4/27/2025Solid follow through, breadth has improved, a lot of breakouts this week, but I would be curious how we'll behave as we get closer to the 50dma on the indexes. Until my market timing model shows a buy signal, I'm not gonna get aggressive, I'm still 50% invested and looking to take profits into strength, rather than entering new positions. I'm still relatively flat for the last 2 months in my equity curve. One thing I really need to improve is my risk management, especially around EPs. I need to reduce outsized losses (1% of my account) of which I had even 2 this month so far. And in general I am not that good with EPs, I need to study them closer.
AMEX:IWM
by BenedekBokor
SPY/QQQ ES/NQ 25 De Abril 2025QQQ Pre-Market Analysis – April 25, 2025 General Context: The chart integrates SpotGamma levels, option walls, and potential reaction zones. It's designed to anticipate long trade setups based on call/put walls and retracement zones. 🔑 Key Zones and Levels Zone/Level Description 464 – 465 (Put/Call Walls) Strong support zone, ideal for potential long setups (Buy Zone). 467.35 – RB Bottom First key resistance zone or target if price bounces from support. 469.51 – RB Head Second target/resistance based on call wall and options positioning. 471.59 – 470 (Call Wall) Final upside target. Possible reversal zone or strong supply zone. 🧠 Trade Ideas (Long Bias) Scenario 1 – Early Bounce: Entry Zone: Between 464 – 465 Target 1: 467.35 (RB Bottom) Target 2: 469.51 (RB Head) Target 3: 471.59 Scenario 2 – Retest Before Breakout: Price may retest the Put Wall (2) at 464 before pushing higher. This gives another buying opportunity with confirmation from price action. Scenario 3 – Mid-range Consolidation: Watch the 467.35 level for a breakout/rejection. Above 467.35 with volume → bullish continuation toward 470–471. ⚠️ Critical Notes Vol Trigger @ 466: This is a pivot level. Holding above suggests bullish bias; below = caution. Zero Gamma Level @ 466: Another critical inflection point—watch reactions here closely.
AMEX:IWM
by JCAVGROUP