Harami cross for the $IWMThe small caps had an impressive rally this week. On Friday, amid general weakness in the markets, the $IWM posted a harami cross. From a technical analysis perspective, this candlestick is a warning sign for a possible reversal. However, in order to get bearish on this sector, we would need to see some continuation to the downside early next week. For now, all that this candle tells us is that the market is somewhat indecisive. We are going from bullish to neutral into next week with regards to the $IWM.
IWM trade ideas
Indices forming an intraday pennantAppears to be an intraday pennant on the 4 major indices (SPX, NDX, DJI, Small Caps). Could go either way either way Monday.
I just have some PTON puts because it's total garbage, but even garbage will float on a rising tide. just a small play.
In any case, I don;t expect the market to do anything in the last hour, but we'll see. My futures indicators are still trending bearish.
IWM/RUT Wyckoff Distribution is BACK!?About 3-4 months ago, I mentioned that the Russell 2k was showing signs of distribution (huge consolidation before a downtrend). I outlined where big money was selling and where they flipped short. Since the breakdown, we have seen nearly 3 months of consolidation. One could argue that the consolidation was symmetrical with higher highs and higher lows. That, my friends, would be the makings of a BEAAAAR FLAAAAG. If this bear flag correctly plays out, the target to the downside would be about 170 which is former resistance AND a previous gap. Closing above the previous local high at 205 is probably a good stop out.
6/1/22 IWMiShares Russell 2000 ETF ( AMEX:IWM )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts.Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $$--
Current Price: $184.26
Breakout price: $187.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $183.95-$168.15
Price Target: $189.60-$204.00 (1st), $249.20-$278.80 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 172-180d, 412-422d
Contract of Interest: $IWM 12/16/22 200c, $IWM 6/16/23 210c
Trade price as of publish date: $7.86/contract, $9.41/contract
Where are we IWM?Where are we IWM? Here's a Mega Triangular Trend Channel MTTC2.0 (beta) set to 200SMA with 19 levels. And my tickerTracker MFI Oscillator set to 20 with SPY, VTI, QQQ, IWM & DIA.
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
Rolling: IWM July 1st 158 Short Put to July 1st 173... for a 1.64 credit.
Comments: Rolling up the short put aspect of my July 1st IWM short strangle, the short call of which is at the 194 to cut the delta/theta ratio to around 1:1. Total credits collected of 6.33.
It's now delta/theta -12.03/14.85.
Rolling (IRA): IWM July 1st 154 Short Put to July 8th 164... for a 1.04 credit.
Comments: With the July 1st 154 at greater than 50% max, rolling it out to the <16 delta strike in the expiry nearest 45 days paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. Total credits collected of 1.64 (See Post Below) plus the 1.04 here, for a total of 2.68.
Rolled: IWM June 17th 165/200 Short Strangle to July 1st 158/194... for a .90 credit.
Comments: Locking in some realized gain here on this little bounce, recentering side risk, and receiving a credit all at the same time. I rolled both sides to the 16 delta strikes, so that the position is back to delta neutral.
Total credits received of 4.69, relative to a current short strangle price for the July 1st 158/194 of 3.28, so I'm up 1.41 ($141) on the position.
Another Straight Forward Trade DIA and IWM are both pretty under-rated stocks to day trade.
IWM is actually slightly better than DIA because it has similar options liquidity and expiries to SPY.
IWM is set up really nicely for either a swing short or intra-day short plays.
We have IWM confined to a downtrend for the past little while. And while SPY and DIA were somewhat able to break out of their downtrend, only to come crashing back down today, IWM has pretty much remained within this channel.
On the 1 hour we see it set up pretty nicely. We also see a nice little bear flag.
I mean this doesn't need much more analysis, its pretty straight forward.
Based on math projections, we can expect to break at least to but likely below 173.75 tomorrow.
If you want to swing for a bit of a larger gain, I would actually say IWM is set up okay for that as well. Conservatively I would set your first target to 170.
Just my thoughts and what I'm seeing!
Trade safe everyone!
Opening (IRA): IWM July 1st 154 Short Put... for a 1.64 credit.
Comments: Keeping on keeping on ... . I don't have much IWM on, so am selling something new in the July 1st expiry, targeting the <16 delta strike that is paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
Rolling (IRA): IWM May 27th 183 Short Put to July 1st 179... for a 1.72 credit.
Comments: Staying mechanical and rolling to the strike nearest 45 days until expiry for a credit that is about 1% of the strike price. Total credits collected of 8.54. Although it's in-the-money, my cost basis is now the short put strike (179) minus total credits collected (8.54) or 170.46 relative to where it's currently trading at 176.40.
IWM - P5 arrived? If so, we bounce!The #IWM has traded in a wonderful way.
Watch how the #Medianlines , the whole #Pitchfork provided support, resistance and - if you know the rules, how they could be applied to make some $s.
However, we arrived on the P5, which is potentially morphing to P0 for the next move to the upside. Alltough I personally don't believe it because of this market environment, chances are high.
...can you hear the emotions nagging on me to un-follow the rules? §8-)
If we open next week below the L-MLH, we would trade further down to the WL (Warning Line).
As far as my trades are designed, I risk tiny and try to let them run by following the rules and Money-Managent.
#iwm #medianline
IWM - Russel's next haltGiven the nice turn at the Center Line, we have a new target for the IWM: L-MLH...at least IMO.
The yellow pitchfork is here to see, if the ongoing flow, the direction will change, and if the momentum is increasing or not.
If not, price will trade outside the U-MLH. Otherwise we will see a fast and hard drop.
Small Caps are dirt cheapThese types of mean reversion trades can be very strong because capital likes to move back and forth between sectors in a cyclical way. It seems like the current trend is to sell off small caps to buy large caps, but it could easily be that the trend in 2023 shifts back to selling large caps and buying small caps, so it makes more sense to have higher exposure to small caps.
Consumer Sentiment, Inflation and Market CrashWhat is the UMCSI Showing to us?
The US economy is deteriorating further. After the Virus the sentiment recovered slowly and peaked with Biden taking office in expectations of better times ahead. At the same time inflation kicked in due to massive overspending. Inflation is always a monetary problem of too much money in circulation. Even fiscal policies (“Free money” programs) are rooted in monetary policies. If the government ask for money nobody has at hand, the FEDS issue debt and create the liquidity needed to pay for those programs. This is important to understand. They create money out of free air.
Follow GDP NOW from the Atlanta Feds and we will see how growth is constantly fading away. Will we have a second quarter in the red?
GDP Outlook.
The UMCSI is at its lowest level since the virus was released, which was the lowest ever since, even under Bush, Obama and Trump. We also had the first Quarter of the GDP coming in negative this year. Two in a row makes it officially a recession.
And Stocks?
We also see that the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russel 2000 are about to hit 20% below the most recent high. A 20% correction will be seen as a recession in the broad market. Why? Because earnings of the underlaying companies will come in lower than they used to do. Also, the higher the stock price gets the more is expected for their growth. Relatively to their value the stock has to grow more to produce the same ROC. Otherwise the EPS (Earnings Per Share) will slump and investors will look for other opportunities. This makes the stock market less attractive the more it grows. Other investments are also less risky. And, i.e., about 50% of the IWM, Russel 2000, cannot serve their debts!!
The Party is over my Friends.
Follow me on Twitter, this post with images is pinned for a while!