IWM trade ideas
I hope everyone is making good money on the crashing marketsThe markets are crashing and I predicted this like so many others 6-9 months ago. We finally reached the edge of the Bear Market. The Ape Army disappeared and lost all their gains. Congratulations, Going to the moon Bro! I stick with IWM the Russel 2000. Target 150 or even 120 by end of year. Inflation will eat the economy and selling assets by the FEDs will bring bond price down, yield up and the stock market will follow. USD will gain value since imports will increase. China at the bring of a collapse as well.
Buying Puts in the IWM for now the way to go, or selling Call Credit Spreads. 50% of the IWM underlaying companies cannot serve their loans. IWM will fall first and deep, Then the NASDAQ, QQQ. Then SPY. Where is the Ape Army??
Head and ShouldersIWM appears to have broken the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, consolidated in a horizontal trading range, or a rectangle, and has broken the support line of the rectangle.
Massive negative crossover of the longer term moving averages at about the same time price broke the neckline. On the Cloud, below, the Tenken crossed through the Kijun at the same time.
This is almost a "reverse" of a Parabolic Arc but to the downside as the candles are almost straight down. It would seem selling pressure would ease soon, but the market seems to be in panic mode. I figured out a long time ago that Mr. Market does not do what I tell him to do )o:
Price is under the Bollinger bands set on 80 showing an extreme oversold condition. RSI is also oversold. These conditions can go on for extended periods of time.
I scanned the chart and there are no rising wedges left in this chart to be broken. The ones that existed have already corrected.
This chart is not trading like QQQ and SPY which are very similar to each other. I am assuming this will go down with the others though, so I will mark short but maybe a bounce very soon.
No recommendation
I doubt our prior president is enjoying this, but he may be saying "I told you so". I do not think Xiden cares and his group probably sold out a while back.
IWM: Pivotal ChangeRussell 2000 looks to be on the cusp of breaking down, after a short term distributional channel (following a longer term underperformance). We might get a small bounce back up to the prior support (as backing up action) before continue lower. There is a lack of a volume signature on the bottom of channel indicating no volume absorption like we saw last time (marked in the green box) and this suggests that we will see some acceleration to the downside. The point and figure chart suggests we a price target range of 110-140 signifying an additional 30% drop. This is entirely possible considering the slower growth and further possible war catalysts. While this, might not be the "end" yet - this warrants some portfolio hedging or at least trimming of "high valuation" positions.
IWM Update: 28 AprilThe Russell is approaching a potential target zone. In this video I share an idea how to trade it with a Broken Wing Butterfly that will benefit from time decay during a potential re-accumulation. It has defined risk in case the selloff continues, and no upside risk in case the bounce happens earlier or is faster than anticipated.
IWM Daily analysis for the past 3 yearsThis IWM daily charts shows IWM has reached this bottom level 4 times in recent months (since January 2022). The last time IWM at this level was in December 2020. This bottom range between 188-193.
If IWM respects this support (STRONG SUPPORT), it will start to bounce. I would watch levels (200,211,225.. for the upsides)
Please note: This is an opinion, not an investment advice.