JNUG trade ideas
Jnug to Gold "week of the Fed" 3/11/17I almost didn't do a analysis this weekend because it seems pretty obvious to me now that Jnug is going up for the short term. Just look at the price action last week. Gold was falling but clearly Jnug was flat. I knew that it wanted to go up and towards the end of Friday afternoon, once spot gold turned around, Jnug flew. So what's next for Jnug? I think I will show two scenarios. A conservative one and a wishful thinking one that could happen as well. So the blue arrows are the conservative path that I think is very possible. As you can see, the black 10DMA is just above the closing price. And we are just below a notable resistance area (blue line $6.36). So it is very possible that Jnug drops a little to retest the breakout level into FOMC before moving higher. But then I look at spot gold, and I see a reversal candlestick that bounced off a downtrend line and think that if spot gold continues up even a little bit, and the broader markets also continues up, then we might just gap up, at least over the 10 DMA and possibly over the $6.36 area and fly up for two days to the very strong $7.75 area before slightly consolidating for a few days. Then up again.
I keep hearing everyone talking about the dollar in a head and shoulders pattern. Maybe they are correct. But the Yen doesn't look that way at all. In about two weeks we should get an idea (bearish or bullish) of where the intermediate trend is going to be headed. Gold usually rallies hard immediately after a rate hike... just like it did in December through February 2015/16 and also just like it did this December through Feb. So if gold does not rally hard...AND break out of the wedge, then that should sound the alarm bells because gold may actually make a lower low. Much lower. If gold is going to make a lower low, then this year would be its absolute bottom.
Up next my spot gold chart
SIMPLY AS THIStheres no need to add to the jnug chart so much indicators or trendlines, with only the use of that uptrend we can easily say that jnug has probably reached its bottom or its near to. GREAT REBOUNCE IN COMING. (SAME HAPPENS WITH NUGT)
JNUG channel and cloud analysisJNUG channels that I see (disclaimer: they could be all wrong LOL). But I do think they'll help to provide a guide. For example, if we can't stay inside of the larger sky blue channel in March, I think it's obvious that JNUG will go lower, like $5's or even $4's.
As far as the Ichimoku Cloud, we fell out of the cloud in Feb. But use the cloud to get a feel for how strong the price movement is. If we break back in soon (I think we REALLY need to), look for strong green candles inside of it to carry us up through the cloud for a breakout above it.
JNUG ready to rock? JNUG missed an opportunity for a bullish Exponential Moving Average cross up over the past couple weeks. Felt horrible for anyone (...uh...guilty) who bought in the late Jan/early Feb thinking that insane movement was THE start of another wild bull run like 2016. I've improved my average to $9.40 by buying in the $6's. Using the Fibonacci Extension Tool on the Dec 2016 swing low to the swing high, I see a very precise touch on the 0.236 Fib line on this deep retracement, and expect this to be as bad as it gets. It could touch it again (and again and again) as this crazy market (and especially miners, and especially leveraged ETF's) love to play head games with the little guy/girl to shake them out when the circumstances appear the most dire. Stay strong, be smart. Use those simple, powerful indicators to make your decisions. But don't be stubborn either. I like the indicators I've used here, and in a minute I'll post a different chart with another simple one you can use.
The Big Dipper:For those of you who are inclined to believe that Friday was a pivotal point in the trend for JNUG that is comparable to the turnarounds on 1/22/2016 and 12/22/2016, I believe we may have another quick run up in price over the next few weeks.
This seems to run contrary to the belief of many gold bears who think that gold will continue its current decline, but in my opinion it is the best time to buy when everyone else is selling.
The above chart shows a couple of Inside Pitchfork indicators that project consevative and aggressive targets for JNUG in the next few weeks.
In this specific chart, I've also overlaid the bars pattern (Grey Line) that corresponds to the reversal that occurred on 1/22/2016 to give you some perspective for the size of the potential reversal.
Coincidentally, the Federal Reserve raised rates one week before that last turnaround in December 2016.
Will history repeat itself?
618 Fib in new medium/long term uptrendspot gold has not fallen off hardly at all and miners pulled back way too much. I see a fib and great comeback today to confirm buy where I think we'll head to at least test the 12.80-13 area and if this is a longer term upswing (which I think we are in as USD will fall and S&P may reach interim high today after Trumps speech).
Jnug to Gold Feb 24thSO I bet many people were wondering WTF is up with the price of JNUG if gold broke out the last two days. Well the answer is that the cycle for miners is coming to an end and there is usually a little pullback during the bullish times and a huge drop during the bearish times. *(look at miners from 11/14 to 12/08 and see what the price action did compared to spot gold which was tanking hard during that period. Miners does not always follow gold perfectly. But when it does correspond, we can get big moves like we had over the last two months) Since we are currently finishing a bullish impulse then we should continue to drop into next week. How much is the question. I put an extension on the 100DMA and 50 DMA to show where they should cross. I am hoping that price can drop to that location where they cross but at least think we could close that last gap just above it. The light green area is where I plan on selling my JDST and buying JNUG. There is always a pop in Jnug when the cycle starts. Just look at price when the cycle start on 1/27 and then again on 12/20. Evan during bearish times like on 11/14 we had a little pop. So I hoping for JNUG to fall to $8.75 range with an expected pop to $11.30. If price does not break through again then it appears it could chop sideways for a while.
The black triangles below are approximate zones where I am predicting without much certainty, that spot gold DCL should occur. I am not totally sold that we completed a DCL for spot gold yet and it may start to drop down to a decent 50% retracement or 50DMA.
I also have changed my spot gold opinion as of 2 days ago since gold has now finally broken through the zone I talked about. I will post the gold chart after this. So I am short miners for at least into next week.
Jnug recent analysis.Jnug: last days analysis.
Bullish till other signal.
stoploss area: 10.50
New positions: Dont at current level
Old positions: Hold
Long JNUG! Only with conditions metJNUG is ready for a strong rally.
Trade red circle where horizontal support and channel support meet is the holy grail for this trade to be successful.
I suspect it may drop down and hit the lower channel support and bounce back
Also, it may hit the lower support in RSI and bounce up.
After the bounce up, BUY! if it breaches the support and breaks out, Do NOT buy.
*If either RSI or price channel is broken, we do not execute a trade.
Short JNUG!Possible breakout in RSI after decline.
Short JNUG until it hits bottom and then BUY
BUY only if price does not break the channel resistance. (important)
*the channel is not drawn here
JNUG Long at 11.56 to 14.30My current JNUG trade.
*I am a rookie so trade with me at your own peril!*
02-16 JNUG If you know what Gold is doing then you know you will get a confirmation soon.
Confirmation is above $13.51
But really the buyzone is #3.
A Perfect Bubble on the 1hrAfter last week's auction which sparked US yields to rise it was obvious that a GDP miss in Japan would fuel US yields to higher intra-day highs. $US10Y and $USDJPY are closer correlated than $DXY and $USDPY because Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries. Keeping all this in mind tomorrow Yellen will likely pivot back to hawk triggering gold to dip back to 1210-1208 by Wed. and the miners should sell-off strongly.
Gap fill on JNUG, TP 17-18.5The similarities to the move from last year is pretty recognizable. We consolidated around 7-8 and have moved up to 12. This year is a little higher than last year, but I see us in wave (3) of (5). Wave 5 should take us back to 17-18.5, filling the gap at 16.52 (highlighted by red arrow).
I hesitate to say it will be exactly like last year, but so far, the price action in the same ranges has behaved similarly, so go with it until proven otherwise.
Invalidate this idea if daily close below (2) (10.65)
Jumped in on a retracement on JnugGold has been trending up for a few weeks, and there was a significant retracement today. Although if Trump goes through with the tax breaks this may go poorly.
JNUG/NUGT ratio going 1+The inverse h&s neckline is being tested in the handle right now. A brake of green descending TL from previous range would give immediate TP of 1.03 (top of cup).
IHS extension target is 1.15. With break of 1.03, I expect a move back to bottom of range from 2014 at 1.24. Longer term, cup & handle extension would give 1.64, but that would require a massive move by gold, so not expected soon.
Invalidate with daily close below .8 on the ratio
