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INVESCO QQQ TRUST

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QQQ trade ideas

QQQ 3-Year Correction Overdue Since 2015 the Nasdaq Index has undergone approximately 25% corrections from all-time-highs every 3 years. Over this time period, the price has more or less respected the trend lines shown above. But perhaps a force more powerful than the trendline is the timeline. The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top: May '12 - July '15 (1175 days) pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days July '15 - October '18 (1170 days) pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days October '18 - November '21 (1148 days) pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days November '21 - February '25 (1176 days) pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days February '25 - May '28 pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me. Notes: *2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession) **This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by unknown_unknowns
2
QQQ Trendline Analysis – Key Support Levels & Breakout PotentialIn this analysis, I break down the QQQ trendlines, highlighting a key trendline that dates back to the end of 2022’s market downturn. This level has acted as a strong support zone, with price currently testing key levels around $511, with additional support near $500 and $485. 📊 Key Takeaways: ✔️ Current Trendline Support – Price is respecting major trend levels. ✔️ Potential Breakout Setup – The market is forming a flag pattern, signaling a possible upward continuation. ✔️ Critical Levels to Watch – If support holds, QQQ could bounce back toward all-time highs. ✔️ Risk Factors – @Nvidia earnings, @FederalReserve policy, tariffs, and geopolitical events could act as catalysts for a major move. 🔍 Main Focus: The key trendline break will be the deciding factor for the next big move. A break above resistance could signal a rally, while a failure may lead to further downside. What are your thoughts on this setup? Drop your analysis in the comments! 📢📉🚀 #QQQ #Nasdaq100 #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Trendlines #Trading #OptionsTrading #Breakout #SupportResistance #Fed #NvidiaEarnings Transcript for Hearing Impaired: “All right, so you see the current trend lines for QQQ. This one dates all the way back to, I think it was 2018. Lemme just switch the chart here so we can see the whole thing. Sorry, it was 2023. So basically the end of the down year of 2022. So that kind of marked the bottom and trend line break. If I hit it with another trend line here, you’ll see that right there, something like that. So that’s where we broke. That was the bottom there and up it went right until now. But we really, if you look, we’ve got support at these levels right in here. So we’ve really got some support. Lemme just switch the view here so it’s a little more clear. We’ve got some support right where it’s at. So if you look at this right here, something like that, you’ve got support here, so like five 11. And it’s also right on this trend line here. And I think we could see a balance here. So that’s a ghost feed here, just showing possibility, falling into this ascending wedge here and almost like a flag pattern. And could, yeah, it’s a flag, sorry, not an ascending wedge, and could bounce out of it here, bounce around and go out and run back up to all-time highs or whatever it’s going to do. If we drop more than I think we could see it come down to this level, which again, it’s pretty much right on trend line is going to be like 500 ish. And then this one down here is going to be something like 4 85 ish. And in all cases, it starts to get trapped out by these lines. So until something breaks, this is really the big one that I’ve got my eye on right now. Make that a little bit of a thicker line. So I think that until it breaks this, which I mean, we’re getting a nice little green bar here that’s coming back up to it. Who knows, maybe it drops a little more, comes back out. But I don’t know. We’ve got Nvidia earnings coming up, we’ve got a Fed coming up, we’ve got tariffs, we’ve got so many things, a Russia-Ukraine deal possibly on the table. So who knows what kind of catalyst or well, what kind of catalyst we’ll have one way or the other, right? So I would say, depending on what happens with those events over the next couple 24 hours for Nvidia and couple weeks probably for the rest of it, I think we’ll find ourselves somewhere in here. Then we’ll break trend and we’ll bounce and do something from there. And so really the main thing I’m looking for is the break of this trend line right here, which we’re going to break eventually because it’s such a sharp line. But then ultimately to give me the green light again, I’m looking for that trend line to be broken, which comes right off the top here.”
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TradeSniper_com
1
2/21/25 - $qqq - Pls read this and comment2/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Pls read this and comment - i put my Schiff on the table - guys. i'm working with a really wonky thesis and i need some comments, let's debate this "the market has mostly crashed already" - this has been a pretty asynchronous crash. aapl, nvda, msft... meta held the tape for a record period... they all are taking turns keeping vol in check - and then under the surface, we have EPS reports and this has been the weirdest thing i've ever traded, experienced in 30 years. i have never felt like i'd just want to trade ex post dips and avoid necking out at all (with VERY few exceptions hello UBER and NXT- thank gawd for you :) - so the thinking is, we're in an asynchronous crash. everything INCLUDING MAG7 is down 15-50% from the let's say last 6 months peaks. and so the index has managed vol. the machines. our overlords. whatever. - so maybe we "crush" 5% from here. 10%? dude 10% is a thing of the past. i dumped my TQQQ puts today. i didn't expect them to cash. just insurance against my mega positions (which has become somewhat singular. nx-faking-t. nextracker NASDAQ:NXT ) - but let's get this real. are we getting gaslighted into a crash incoming when we're literally in the middle of it. new coronavirus BS coming out of "wuhan" we believe that chit again. come on. ppl. take off that N95, touch grass... think. think. - am i going nuts? usually i'm the guy that goes nuts first. rings the bells. i'm lonely thinking this. tell me WHY i'm wrong if you disagree. i genuinely want to debate this. - i'm picking winners here. getting situated in the non momo BS that has reported gains, generates cash, attractively valued. - nxt HUGE size - obtc, get the king at a 10% discount (use limits) - uber - glob (short term swing b/c OTD cucks gonna cuck didn't expect to trade or own this, but here i am, cleaning you all up) - tsm some others stuff. but honestly. i'm here. i'm typing this. that's 90% of success. God. family. friends. the rest are details. be well. we'll crush it. but if we read this tape right... V
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by VROCKSTAR
2
QQQ Trading Analysis: Entry Points & Profit TargetsFor QQQ, several potential entry points have been identified at the levels of 511, 504, 495, and 492. These levels may serve as strategic opportunities for initiating positions based on recent market observations. Once entered, the corresponding profit targets are projected at 524, 532, and 540+, offering multiple exit points as the market progresses. Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing carry inherent risks, and you should conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Robert_V12
1
$QQQ - ALL the way to the bottom of the Implied Move. Good Morning, y’all. I lost my voice (more like a sore throat, I feel fine otherwise but a sore throat so doing the charts on here today) Yesterday - QQQ opened with a pop uptown open and got smacked down by the 30min 200MA, back under the 1hr 200 and the 50 Day all the way down to the bottom of the implied move, then back up and got smacked by the 1hr back under the 50DAY moving average. We closed just underneath the bottom of the implied move for the day. Great volatility and all on the red side. We are quite oversold here - maybe a fight for the 20 day moving average. Also note that the 50 Day moving average is facing down here now and the 35EMA has slipped underneath the 30min 200.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
QQQ Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 022425Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 527/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by fibonacci6180
QQQ Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26📌 Key Observations from the Charts 1. Market Structure & Price Action: * QQQ had a sharp breakdown from 537-540 and is now consolidating near 525.98. * Support Levels: * 523.00 (current price zone, minor support). * 520.00 (strong put wall, major downside risk if broken). * 515-510 (critical support levels with heavy put positioning). * Resistance Levels: * 532.51 (POC, key level for recovery). * 537.23 (VAH, strong resistance). * If QQQ loses 520, a further decline to 515-510 is likely. 2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels: * Point of Control (POC): 532.51 → High liquidity, key resistance level. * Value Area High (VAH): 537.23 → Strong rejection area. * Value Area Low (VAL): 526.00 → Must hold for potential rebound. 3. Indicators Review: * MACD: Bearish, confirming downward momentum. * Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but no confirmation of a reversal yet. 🛠️ Options GEX Analysis * Call Resistance: * 545-550 → High gamma resistance, unlikely to be breached soon. * Put Walls & Support Zones: * 520 → Highest Negative NETGEX & Major Put Support. * 515-510 → Critical put walls—if broken, QQQ could see a major sell-off. * Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx): * IVR 25 | IVx Avg 22.7 → Moderately elevated volatility. * Put Positioning 73.7% → Heavy bearish sentiment, increasing downside risk. 📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan 🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup) 🔹 Entry: Short below 523 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 520.00 (Put Wall Support).
🔹 Target 2: 515-510 (Put Wall Breakdown Level).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 528 (invalidates breakdown).
🔹 Options Strategy: * Buy PUTS 525/515 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms. * Debit Put Spread (Bearish 525P/510P for risk control). 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely) 🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 528-532, targeting 537+.
🔹 Target 1: 532.51 (POC, first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 537.23 (major resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 523 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy: * Sell 510/505 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play. 🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions * Main Bias: Bearish, unless 528+ is reclaimed. * Gamma Risks: Below 520, strong gamma exposure can push QQQ lower quickly. * Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
$QQQ Support and Resistance Areas?QQQ had a big bearish candle on Friday. If you look left on the chart there were 2 comparable recent days. On Dec 18, 2024, and Jan 7, 2025, both lead to further downside. On Dec 18, the decline before a rally was about 5.3% and the Jan 7 decline was around 4.9%. Friday’s decline was about 2.4%. “If” those declines are any guide, we could expect another 2.5% to 3% additional deterioration. Which portends a pullback to around 512 to 510. Think of those as areas of concern, not a prediction. I have also drawn in horizontal lines that “may” become areas of support or resistance. In addition, we are touching an area of upward sloping line (area) that has defined a series of higher lows over the last 4 weeks. In summary, it is a good idea to have an open mind about any outcome over the next few days to weeks and simply look at these areas to see if they do indeed end up being turning points. One more point, this is an index fund and as such looks at heavily weighted stocks. We are likely in a period of picking individual stocks that are leading and using this index simply as a guide to overall market health. I hope that helps.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by jaxdog
2/12/25 - $qqq - Welp. I'm short.2/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Welp. I'm short. - Back to 45% cash, i only like what i like and i've written about the names i would *like* to see get a bit of a beta-related-risk-off dump so i can put it back in at better pxs, CRYPTOCAP:BTC (thru OTC:OBTC ), NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:UBER and $tsm. - but look, i've written extensively about what concerns me here on the sequencing related to index, flows etc. so i won't rehash the message. the short here on Q's is nuanced and a bit more than a hedge, i'm defn calling BS. - inflation leading indicators coming down. growth slowing. no print just yet. EPS prints in rear view and guidance has been mostly sucking w/ a few exceptions, so you see EPS this year being revised lower, multiples reflexively too... it takes time guys... the market isn't as fast as you'd imagine... and stock px drain as 10Y higher, DXY stronger and *surprise* for the moment, cash aint trash. - so, do we go higher before some reset (and not a crash, those aren't allowed, remember). god knows. but seeing the mkt risk off on today's print tells me (similar to nvda) that market makers and by extension, flows... probably offsides and this wk expires need some help. - DOGE is deflationary. Team orange can take a victory and "blame" brandon for mistakes if/when dip and call/ protest al sharpton style "rates r too dayum high" once this mini risk off occurs. and then march lows... april new year (do you know why they call it april fools day? look it up... jan 1 isn't really the new year if you're in the klub - which i'm not and will never be)... and we r off to the brrr and higher highs this year. but everyone wants to extrapolate. nobody can handle the 1% draw downs. buckle up butter cups. if YTD has been tough for you, you're NGMI. be prepared for all scenarios. hope for the best, plan for the worst. we're in the risk mgmt business, first and foremost. V
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by VROCKSTAR
2