QQQ: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the QQQ pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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QQQ trade ideas
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QQQ The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on QQQ and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 482.42 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 465.55
Safe Stop Loss - 492.36
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ at $820: Madness or Possibility?Disclaimer: First and foremost, it's important to clarify that this analysis is not a buy recommendation, nor was it made with the expectation that prices will definitely reach this target. The goal here is to share a technical perspective and offer another piece of information for traders and investors to consider. In technical analysis, especially in the classical approach, there are no certainties. My intention was simply to share an interesting idea I noticed while applying concepts from the literature.
Hey everyone, I’ve been looking at the weekly chart of NASDAQ:QQQ , and it seems we’re following a pretty healthy uptrend. From what I’m seeing, we might be on the way to a wave 5 (Elliott Wave) of this upward move, which is quite interesting. To back up this analysis, I took a look at John Murphy’s classic book , Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets , to review Fibonacci projections.
Applying Fibonacci to Wave 5
John Murphy gives some great tips on how to project the top of wave 5 using Fibonacci. In chapter 13 (page 346), he says the following:
"The top of wave 5 can be approximated by multiplying wave 1 by 3.236 (2x1.618) and adding that value to the top or bottom of wave 1 for maximum or minimum targets."
And there's another one:
"Where waves 1 and 3 are roughly equal, and wave 5 is expected to extend, a price target can be obtained by measuring the distance from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3, multiplying it by 1.618, and adding the result to the bottom of wave 4."
Applying This to the Weekly QQQ Chart
So, I applied these ideas to the QQQ weekly chart and, honestly, I came up with a wave 5 target between $820 and $830 . Yes, it seems quite far from the current levels, and I admit that at first, it sounded a bit exaggerated. But, following Murphy's reasoning, these are the numbers that make sense based on Fibonacci projections.
But is that realistic?
I know, it’s a bit of a surreal target, right? $820 - $830 is far off, especially considering where we are now, but following the Fibonacci rules that John Murphy describes, we can’t entirely rule out this possibility. 😅 Even though these values might seem unlikely at first glance, technical analysis encourages us to keep an open mind about future possibilities.
Still, one question struck me while doing this analysis: What could actually make wave 5 extend this much?
I'd love to hear your thoughts! Do you think there are other factors at play that could push the price this high, or is this projection too ambitious? Share your insights in the comments, and let's discuss it together!
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas Review - RKT Silver NFLX SPX QQQI recap the trade ideas for this week, got some nice moves on the bull flags, but a lot of them quickly retraced. I think what happens with silver is yet to be determined. Really nice breakout for QQQ, but got a decent rejection today off a previous high.
QQQ Triangle BreakI've been talking about this triangle on QQQ for a while now. Today we finally got the big break above. Stalling at the previous swing high for now. This could end up being a great long if it breaks $485 and retests. To the downside, I'm watching today's open price. I think the range should be about $480-$485 from here. Any breaks above or below should lead to more continuation.
Don't need to chase long up here and don't need to short into strength like this. I think it's important to remain patient and wait for the opportunities to present themselves. I don't see longing yesterday and holding overnight as a high probability play, but it would've worked great obviously. However, the best trades come after these sorts of moves when we get retests or fails.
Bias should now be long until proven otherwise.
QQQ - needs to break $476 resistance for $485 and $488QQQ - Stock is forming a symmetrical triangle on daily time frame about to break out. ETF has resistance at $476. looking for calls if that line breaks. ETF is strong on indicator level. Above $476 we can see $485 and $488(where gap begins to $496.5
FOMC RecapA recap of today's action and my thoughts after posting the preview earlier. Overall, a lot of volatility but not much price movement. Flat day, well below the implied move for SPY today. I think the move will be coming in the next few days, still hard to say which direction that is but I'm still leaning towards down for now.
QQQ continues to test major resistanceQQQ rallied up its resistance and tests with false breakout
Volume increases over day before yesterday as resistance is tested again
RSI trends downward and stays below SMA
QQQ has been trending downward since August and now trying to break through its major resistance. Generally September and October are not great months for the market so extra caution must be taken during this time
QQQ is gonna be an interesting trade this weekQQQ has already been volatile as it is , but with the FED announcement coming tomorrow it should allow for a great trade or two. It looks as though its direction will swing almost entirely on the rate cut amount. It wouldn't shock me that a 50 point rate cut might shoot the QQQ past 484 ish and maybe even 490 in the next week, where as a 25 point cut might drop it back down to upper 450's. I think a 25 point cut will ultimately be more profitable with a nice sell off followed by a large green few days to recorrect.
QQQ: Pullback Ahead? (D&H chart analysis)Looking at the QQQ daily and hourly charts, a few important patterns and levels emerge.
On the daily chart, QQQ has reached the key resistance level at $476.53, which corresponds to a previous high. The price has had a strong rally from the support at $448.19, showing consistent strength above the 21-day EMA. However, the area around $476.53 is critical because a failure to break above could signal the formation of a double top, which could lead to a bearish reversal. A clear breakout above this level would be necessary to invalidate the double top and confirm further upside, and in this case, the $484.43 would be its next target.
On the hourly chart, we can see a potential double top forming at the $476.53 level, as the price has tested this resistance twice and pulled back. A breakdown below the $469 could indicate weakness and a deeper pullback, as it would trigger the Double Top patttern, with possible Fibonacci retracement levels acting as support. The 38.2% retracement level at $466 and the 50% retracement at $462 would be the next key levels to watch if the price pulls back further.
Overall, the price action is at a pivotal point. A breakout above $476.53 could lead to a continuation of the rally, while failure to break this level may result in a deeper pullback toward the $469.89 support and beyond.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 | QQQ TriangleQQQ had a small rejection off of a descending trendline from ATH last week and closed slightly below. We also have an uptrend from early August to make up the bottom line of the triangle. I see this as more of a neutral pattern, but it is at the top end and threatening to breakout above for now.
First upside target would be ATH and then it's a blue sky setup so we'd have to rely on things like the projected target using the distance from the bottom of the triangle to the top. You could also extend that target line all the way up to ATH for a bigger target, but I like using that swing low from August.
Immediate downside target is the bottom of the triangle and the ascending trendline from late 2023. Final downside targets are the August/April low at 423.45 and around 385 based on the triangle projected target.
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QQQ What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 475.38
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 466.57
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ Short-Term Selloff After the Fed's Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip in QQQ:
Then you need to know that as we approach the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision this week, there is growing speculation that the central bank may implement a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut, instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically viewed as bullish for markets, this unexpected move could trigger a short-term selloff, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the QQQ.
Why? The market tends to operate on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality. Investors have already priced in expectations of a modest 25 bps cut, so if the Fed delivers a more aggressive 50 bps cut, it may signal heightened concern over economic conditions, causing traders to pull back. Such a scenario could spook the market, leading to a temporary selloff in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
In light of this, it may be worth considering a bearish strategy for the short term. Specifically, the $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could be a prudent option, as they stand to gain value in the event of a selloff following the Fed decision. The short-term market reaction could make these puts a strategic play for traders anticipating a dip.
While the reaction to the Fed decision could be sharp in the short term, it’s unlikely to be long-lasting. Market participants will soon digest the news, and I expect a recovery by the end of the month. In fact, by November 5th—U.S. election day—we could see new all-time highs in both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been keen on maintaining market stability, which could give the Democrats a slight edge in the upcoming elections. After all, former President Donald Trump has stated he wouldn’t reappoint Powell if re-elected, possibly adding a political dimension to the Fed’s moves.
In conclusion, while the QQQ might face near-term turbulence due to the Fed’s potentially larger-than-expected rate cut, the broader market is likely to recover soon, with tech stocks regaining their upward momentum as the election approaches. The $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could serve as a timely hedge during this brief period of volatility.
QQQ to bounce from hereMODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make.
Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated.
My trading system is very simple.
I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play.
I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Impulse MACD is flat suggesting squeeze might happen
In at $449
Top of channel or $480 is target
Long QQQ - oversold = free money long-term imhoLook I know it's an obvious trade, and a potentially early one...but c'mon. Long term, can I find anyone who will bet against tech? Any number of individual QQQ components are oversold today, so you could take your pick of them, too. GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, etc. and maybe do better trading them. But diversificiation mitigates individual stock risk factors.
I might be early on this trade, as a full blown correction has been a while coming, and it could be a 10% one or more depending on how earnings season goes. But if I had a nickel for every time I've ever missed a profitable potential QQQ trade because I waited too long, I'd have a LOT more nickels than I do now. This one may take a while to work out, but betting on the QQQ is as close to free money as there is in the stock market long term, in my opinion.
Besides, if interest rates are heading lower (and I believe they are), tech will benefit. We saw that after the latest inflation numbers printed. But the celebration was early and now I think everyone was looking for a reason to calm down and book profits until the actual easing happens. If Biden talking China trade restrictions for the chip makers and Trump giving TikTok some love is the excuse, fine. Whatever works. But in my mind, there is nothing macro that tells me this isn't just a normal correction. I'm not even convinced it's gonna be that extreme yet.
Again, it could go lower before it turns around. My response: fine, then I'll add to my position whenever it's oversold. But until someone can convince me that long-term, tech is not a winner I"m taking this trade.
Buying lots as long as it's oversold and selling each lot as it becomes BOTH overbought and profitable. I'll update as I buy or sell.
As always, this idea is edu-tainment, not investment advice. If you trade with my ideas, good luck to you, but it's your responsibility not mine in terms of how that turns out for you. Never put money into the market that you can't afford to lose if things go badly sideways.
Thoughts for tomorrow Thursday Sept. 12Big upwards move today after a brief low below yesterdays low(sep 10),
qqq closed near daily highs and right on the top of an 13 day downwards trendline (A)which could be resistance. If we break through that next resistance is 473 followed by July 11 high downward trend line resistance 0f 477. If we cant break the 11 day old downward trend line I will favor the short term short trade on a 5 = 15 minute chart and trade on a trendline point of view.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #3 - QQQ Long/ShortQQQ is testing a trendline that has held since late August now. Small rejection so far, we may bounce shortly and end up breaking out above. If not, I'd expect a big failure here. I think this will determine direction for the next few days at least. If bears can't hold it here, there's not much stopping us from squeezing back up to 486.
I still favor downside for now, but we're getting close to the point where I can't be bearish anymore, at least in the shorter term. Should be interesting.