SMH - Hard Short(Opinion Only)
Could be direct move or take a few days, not advice. Just my interpretation of the chart.
SMH trade ideas
SMH/SPYSMH has handedly outperformed the SPY since 2018 but has stalled recently
If SMH cannot continue to outperform SPY in 2022 it will be ugly for tech/growth
SMH/SPYSemiconductors have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 since 2015
Semiconductors are today's transports
$SMH Semis Breakout RetestSMH Breakout Retest of 313, needs confirmation . Failure expect a move back in the box to the 300 zone.
Given the bullish seasonality and technical confluence (MACD cross and RSI uptick), bias is to the upside with $325 and $332 price targets.
I'm long JAN $315 Calls, 30% stop.
Semicondoctuctors are the "Transports of the 21st century"Bespoke Research firm says "Prior to the digital revolution that began in the 1990s, the Dow Transports were viewed as a “leading” indicator for the broader stock market. In the digital age, there’s hardly an industry group that doesn’t rely on semiconductors in one way or another. A modern car can easily have more than 3,000 chips. We view the semiconductor group as the “Transports of the 21st century,” making the price action for semis important to monitor."
I agree and will be monitoring the SMH/SPY
SMH.............................................
here's SMH for personal notes but if you're seeing this too you're welcome to comment or share your thoughts ^^
A Short Semi Window on SMHBreakdown is anything south of 273.89
Question is what saves it - historically 14SMA on weekly has captured it but this has broken down in May 2021. Instead the 30SMA on weekly have been the saver so that would be the clincher.
If I was a shorting man - 273.89 is the trigger- then down to 14SMA at 279.57, then 269.72 as next resistance and then finally 30SMA at 266.06. I can see a breakdown but not a major one given the strategic value of Semi at the moment, which is unchanged
Semis leading the way for tech Semiconductors are typically a leading sector for tech. We have a very clear breakout and a extremely bullish trend. I expect QQQ to follow as well
SMH Rolling OverCurrently in the Chop zone and likely to continue
300 for the bears to take over, 310 for Bulls to take over. Bias is to the downside with supply issues clogging up the system
SMHSMH. Potential for a wave 5 continuation. Possible reversal points marked using two methods. 1st - Extended 3rd wave tells me that wave 5 may have a similar run to wave 1. 2nd- Distance travelled through waves 1-3 multiplied by .618. That's the proper way to use the fib on an impulse wave. You don't just measure out directional pulls and expect it to bounce somewhere. That's gambling. It may be a close 50/50, but those odds aren't good enough for me.
SMH Doji Star. Chip Sector pullbackChip sector led to a massive rally in the NDX...
The biggest holdings in this sector are
1.NVDA
2.ASML
3.AMD.
4.TSM
5.Qcom
6.INTC
With the exception of INTC all these stocks are overbought on every indicator.
A pullback is to be expected from this sector but I would like to see if this channel breakout is the real or Faux
SMH ShortShort on the 4H time frame, momentum is decreasing, gap below, resistance just above, stop above recent pivot. Not investment advice.
SMH - The TECH MaestrosYou have to laugh, as Retail was piling into the NQ/MNQ @ 71, 75, 82, 88, 90, 92, 95 on the SELL.
The BOTS simply waited for the 3:59 arrival to run all those stops at 410 - 420.
Usually, they wait until 1 second after 4 and run it vertical @ until 4:02 PM EST.
By 4:05 PM EST - a new high off the Ledge @ 15428.50.
Ya see, all the Baby Seals were thinking - "Bruh, uh... last time we were at 399 we fell 100 Points,
it's probably a good idea to Sell this now... fer sure" - the Problem is, the AIQC knows this... and
you see the results.
It knows how to read forums in nanoseconds and observe your behaviors, it sees the ENTIRE ORDER BOOK.
As odd lots of Micros for MNQ went flying by... it was painful to watch as the clubbing
was being set in motion, sad really. It's cheating, but then this entire game is one big cheat.
They win, you lose... Someone has to lose... not everyone gets a Trophy.
You sell when it is, not until... keep it simple.
The sure thing bruh, yeah, naw, it's stacked against you.
Why wait when there's fresh blood in the water, the Mako's did not hesitate, chewed to chum
bits during a 1 Minute Bar.
Baby Seals clubbed again in Semi CONductors of which there is very little Conducting going on
or ongoing for that matter.
Fires, Water Shortages, Green Agenda... Yada Yada, pick any excuse.
There is a shortage of Chips, Globally. Although one would never, apparently never, have a DIRECT
Effect upon Price of Said Chippers.
NQ to 15517 will only add Insult to Injury.
Winsome, lose some - Literally.
Chips N' NO Dip:
AMAT + .99%
MU +.54%
AVGO + 1.445%
TXN + 1.7%
INTC + 1.54%
QCOM + 1.83%
ASML + 1.62%
NVDA + .40%
TSM + 1.40%
Semi's rocked the Bang Bus after being rocked for weeks on end.
AS the VXN dipped into new lows for the Day, it did not matter a Whit... NQ Made new highs
after it reversed and closed 28 ticks off the lows... AIQC... it's a Hunter Killer.
Sweet Ginger Brown... it's a mess out there, they are entirely desperate to get this up and lickety-split
as indicated.
What's the Rush?
We're going to find out soon enough, and it will not be Good.
Here's that word again............
P A T I E N C E
- HK
SMH AKA SOX TARGET 5 OF 5 OF 3 283/290 Look for an issue at 267.60 after that 270.6 then NO ISSUES TILL 283 TO 290 WAVE 5 OF 5 OF 3
SMH - Trying To Get Back Into Bullish TerritoryYesterday's break below ~$267.70 puts SMH on track to move lower towards the other side of the lookback periods (ORANGE & RED dotted line) at ~$255-$249.
Only a move back above $267.70 puts the bulls in control.
Given the way the S&P's are trading and the negative tape at large, I favor shorts in SMH.
semis daily 9 $SMH $SOXL$SMH $SOXL are printing daily 9. I judge these 9s as reversal 9. The QQQ is showing strength on this reversal. Some good individual semi plays to look at: $LASR $MRVL
$SMH Flirting with Danger Zone w/ Implications for the MarketSMH has been a clear leadership area in the market. But the ETF is flirting with a technical breakout failure on a large timeframe.
Of such things big tops are potentially made. This gives the broad market a yellow-light status.
SMH running up last leg before Sept
Bounced off wedge support 8/12
OBV/RSI / MFI all curving upwards.
Im long up into Wedge top. So notable earnings this week under this etf are
NVDA
Amat
Also Qcom has broken out from underneath its recent resistance.
Look for the reversal as September nears.
SMH - To short or to press - This is the Question..Top of the ascending channel.. Doesn't mean it won't overshoot but I like the probability here..
(Opinion Only)
SMH TARGET 269 PLUS WE may have ended a wave E LOW IN CHIP SECTOR at a min a target of 269/271 should be seen rather fast
