SPY: Pullback or No? Hey everyone,
Posting again for next week.
My thoughts, not advice as usual.
Hope you find them helpful and I hope you all have a great and sunny weekend!
Take care and safe trades!
SPY trade ideas
Spy.. 650 topLooking for a top this week
The top of this monthly trendline dating from 2009 should be tagged this week around 643-645.00. As you can see price can grind up here for weeks until the BIG drop.
That grind would possibly be distribution with
A range trade of 620-640 for the month of august. historically Sept is very bearish and could see a drop back below 600 then.
Summer price action looks like so
Smaller price action (Tradeable technicals)
Bull flag early July has us squeezing up this last leg here..
If we gap up Sunday night then i like the short around 638ish
If we gap down and flush i like the dip buy around 634 gap close with the next target being 640+
Daily candle closed outside Bbands so I would not long this on any gap up... on a big earnings week like this, there will be a shake out day or a flush to try and stop out all of those who bought long last week for this weeks earnings.
TVC:NYA or NYSE
Has also reached the top of its weekly channel here. 21,000 will be tough. Price could grind up here but I'd be careful trading anything non tech.
As far as tech goes
Here's NASDAQ:QQQ
monthly chart (Logarithmic)
We have room for 575-580
This should compliment Spy 550
Zoomed in on the daily chart and it's climbing back up to the resistance shown on the monthly
Hourly chart shows price action from early july... tight channel illustrates how frustrating the swings have been
562-563 is support heading into next week. If we have a major gap up Sunday night I would look to open short near 570 for a pullback before ER... if we gap down, I would buy the dip around 563 and average down if need be down to 561..
We should tag 575 this week
The sector that I think lags the most this week is the banking sector... AMEX:XLF
Banks outperform the entire market last week and are overheated at resistance I think they lag this week
I will update this more throughout the week if necessary..
SPY 4HSSPY continues its bullish trend after breaking above the ascending channel. The recent breakout shows strong momentum, supported by institutional absorption around the 620–615 zone. This area now acts as key support.
Upside target: 645
Extended target: 650
Downside target if momentum fails: 620–615 zone, followed by 595
#SPY #globaltrade #investment #investing #stockmarket #wealth #realestate #markets #economy #finance #money #forex #trading #price #business #currency #blockchain #crypto #cryptocurrency #airdrop #btc #ethereum #ico #altcoin #cryptonews #Bitcoin #ipo
$SPY: Mapping Scenarios🏛️ Research Notes
Fractal Corridors
Shows recursive formations which indicates a full fractal cycle.
The angles of decline are parallel which is important for potential buildup.
To map a cycle we'd need to apply fib channel to the opposite direction In a way this should be sufficient to cover the scenarios of nearest future if we were to use bar patterns to validate a structure.
These are examples of historic progressions with similar growth patterns (composite sub-cycles):
This explains most elements present in interactive chart.
Spy ATH prediction by end of 2025 10% from 613 triple top ATH major major level. I think SPY see 672 before 2025 is over 🔮
Play I am looking at.Golden cross starting to line up on VVIX on the 10 and 15min. If VIX spikes we could fill the Gap on SPY making it a perfect set up as it will also lign it up for a rebound off the 200MA. Depending on what the level 2 says at that time ill be loading 640 calls and 643Calls. I'll take a speculative guess that it SPY will open with short formed W pattern off that MA.
SPY "SP500 ETF" 1️⃣ Market Structure Overview
Change of Character (CHoCH) – Level: 626.19
The market printed a clear CHoCH at 626.19, breaking below a recent higher low. This shift signals the end of bullish dominance and marks the first warning of potential trend reversal. It’s a critical structure break indicating weakness in prior buy-side momentum.
Break of Structure (BOS) – Level: 631.54
A firm Break of Structure followed at 631.54, confirming the downtrend. This BOS came after price failed to establish a new high and instead reversed from the premium area, solidifying bearish continuation. It now acts as a key upper boundary for sellers.
2️⃣ Demand Zone Analysis (Support Levels)
The demand zones (green areas) are historical locations where price previously reacted strongly to the upside—suggesting institutional buying or significant liquidity absorption. These zones act as potential long-entry areas and support during pullbacks:
625.50: Immediate demand zone; price has hovered above this level recently, signaling short-term support.
624.80: Strong base formed after earlier accumulation; minor rally originated here.
623.80: Clear area of bullish imbalance; look for wick rejections here.
622.75 & 621.90: Deeper demand zones—likely to hold if the market retraces further and volatility spikes. These levels represent high-probability reversal points if liquidity sweep occurs below 624.
Each zone increases in risk/reward the deeper price pulls back, but also carries a higher chance of forming strong bullish reaction.
3️⃣ Supply Zone Analysis (Resistance Levels)
The supply zone (red area) at 628.85–631.54 was the origin of the last sharp bearish move following the BOS. It now acts as a potential reversal or distribution zone:
628.85 – 631.54:
This area previously held heavy sell-side interest and rejected bullish advances. It overlaps with a structural BOS and sits near the high of the prior rally. Watch for bearish price action or lower-timeframe exhaustion here. A break and close above 631.54 would invalidate this zone and indicate a major structural reclaim.
4️⃣ Current Price Action (Inside the Marked Border)
Price is currently reacting around 627, just above the CHoCH level (626.19). This zone lies between the upper boundary of the nearby demand and the lower edge of the supply. Within this boxed region:
Price is showing temporary consolidation, suggesting indecision.
A short-term dip into the 625.50–624.80 demand cluster is expected before any bullish leg.
If price holds above 626.19 and shows reversal signals (like bullish engulfing, hammer, or low-volume rejection), we may see continuation to test the 628.85–631.54 supply zone.
If structure fails and price breaks below 626.19 with conviction, the next downside targets are deeper into the 622–624 range.
This bordered zone represents a transitional area where the next directional move will likely be decided.
5️⃣ Momentum & Structure Bias
Structure remains bearish after the BOS, but current price is attempting to build a base.
If price maintains above CHoCH (626.19) and demand levels begin to hold, we may enter a bullish corrective phase.
Watch for rising volume on bullish candles or absorption wicks in demand zones as confirmation.
6️⃣ Macro/Fundamental Context (as of July 22, 2025)
While the chart is technical, the SPY ETF (S&P 500) is influenced by broader economic data. Around this date, watch for:
Earnings Season: Mid to late July often brings earnings from major S&P 500 companies. Positive tech earnings can fuel bullish momentum.
FOMC Speculation: If investors expect no rate hike or a dovish Federal Reserve stance, demand zones are more likely to hold.
Economic Reports: Look out for PMI or consumer confidence reports this week. A weak reading may drive SPY lower into demand, while a strong reading could help push it toward the supply zone.
If any bullish macro surprise occurs this week, it would support the bounce from the demand zone.
SPY: Market of Sellers
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell SPY.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
July 21 Special Update : Metals, SPY & More. What's Next.This special update is to highlight why I continue to believe traders should stay very cautious of this rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD.
Underlying economic data suggest that this is one big speculative rally following the April Tariff collapse.
And, the economic data I see from my custom indexes suggests the markets are moving into a very volatile and potentially dangerous topping pattern.
As I've stated many times in this video. I'm not saying the markets have topped and you should SELL EVERYTHING. I'm suggesting this market is extremely over-valued in terms of the underlying risk factors at play and the very clear data that suggests the markets are already in a recessionary price trend.
You may ask, "How can the markets continue to rally like this in a moderate recession?".
The answer is simple.
All bubbles end with a super-speculative phase. This phase is where everyone piles into a euphoric attempt to ride the rally higher.
It happened in the late 1990s. It has happened again through the 2000-2005+ housing bubble. Heck, it has occurred in the collectors market over the past few decades where people spent fortunes on the "hottest items" (think Beanie-Babies) only to find out they bought at the height of the bubble.
That is why I continue to urge traders to remain cautious and to withdraw profits from this speculative rally phase. Protect your investment capital immediately and consider the risks associated with the information I share in this video.
I'm not trying to scare anyone. I'm just trying to be realistic in terms of what I see in my data and why I believe now is the best time to MOVE TO SAFETY.
My data suggests that the markets are about to enter a fragile and potentially dangerous pullback phase. If you want to ride it out - go for it.
Otherwise, prepare for significant volatility over the next six months or more.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
A tale of two wedgesIn early 2025 we’ve seen two classic wedge patterns on two of the market’s most watched charts: a falling wedge on the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) and a rising wedge on the S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY ). Alone each tells its own tale—but together they sketch a tug‑of‑war between a fading dollar and resilient equities.
The Falling Wedge on DXY
A falling wedge in a downtrend signals waning bearish momentum and often precedes a bullish reversal once price breaks the upper trendline.
The Rising Wedge on SPY
A rising wedge in an uptrend is classically a bearish reversal pattern —a breakdown below the lower trendline confirms sellers are gaining control.
A Converging Reversal
Given the well‑known inverse correlation between the dollar and most assets, it’s noteworthy that both asset classes are flashing signs of a reversal. Taken together that makes a compelling argument.
SPY Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 637.01
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 628.63
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
🏔️ Copper Market Flashpoint
Following President Trump’s announcement of steep copper tariffs (15–50% range), U.S. copper futures surged, then sharply reversed. Inventory arbitrage between CME and LME markets surged, distorting pricing dynamics and triggering concern over metal market stability.
🇪🇺 EU–China Summit Signals Trade Reset
EU leaders concluded their 25th summit with China, fostering deeper economic and strategic ties. Observers expect follow-up on mutual trade agreements, particularly regarding tech and sustainability sectors.
🌍 EM Equity Rally Consolidates Gains
Emerging markets continue to outperform global equities in 2025—with MSCI EM up ~18% vs. S&P 500. Analysts highlight strong opportunities in AI/fintech stocks in China and Latin America, suggesting further rotations out of U.S. markets.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, July 25:
8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June):
Forecast shows a sharp drop (~–10%), following a ~16% gain in May—signaling possible cooling in business-related equipment purchases.
10:00 AM ET – U.S. Imports of Steel Products (June):
Trade-data release monitoring steel flows amid evolving tariff frameworks.
All Day – Corporate Earnings Reports:
Companies such as First Financial Bancorp (FFBC), HCA, AON, Charter, and others report earnings. Outlooks may influence small- to mid-cap sentiment.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #data #earnings #commodities #EM #technicalanalysis
Dinosaur gets hit by a meteor We can see a clear breakout from previous lows only target left is that meteor at 630-640.
We will see this by the end of july!
SPY: Week of Jul y21stPosting an idea on SPY against better judgement.
Its a mess of an index but here is my attempt at an analysis with this trainwreck, haha.
Best of luck, safe trades and take care!
SPY CONTINUES IN AN ASCENDING WEDGE PATTERNThe SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is currently exhibiting an ascending wedge pattern on the 30-minute chart, a bearish technical pattern that often signals a potential reversal or selloff when confirmed. Below, I’ll explain the ascending wedge pattern, identify key levels to watch for a potential selloff, and provide context based on recent market sentiment. Since I cannot view the real-time chart, I’ll base the analysis on the characteristics of an ascending wedge and recent posts on X that discuss SPY’s price action, ensuring a critical approach to the data.
What is an Ascending Wedge Pattern?
An ascending wedge (or rising wedge) is a bearish chart pattern formed when the price consolidates between two upward-sloping trendlines that converge over time. The upper trendline (resistance) connects higher highs, and the lower trendline (support) connects higher lows, creating a narrowing price range. This pattern typically indicates that bullish momentum is weakening, as buyers are pushing prices higher but with diminishing strength, often leading to a breakdown below the lower trendline.
Key characteristics of an ascending wedge include:
Converging Trendlines: Both the support and resistance lines slope upward, with the support line often steeper than the resistance line.
Decreasing Volume: Trading volume typically declines as the pattern forms, reflecting reduced buying conviction. A spike in volume often accompanies a breakout or breakdown.
Bearish Implication: In an uptrend, the ascending wedge signals a potential reversal to the downside. In a downtrend, it may act as a continuation pattern, but the bearish bias remains.
Breakout Confirmation: A convincing break below the lower trendline, preferably with increased volume, confirms the bearish reversal. A retest of the broken support (now resistance) may occur before further declines.
The pattern typically forms over 3–4 weeks but can appear on shorter timeframes like the 30-minute chart, making it relevant for intraday or short-term traders.investopedia.comen.wikipedia.org
SPY’s Current Ascending Wedge on the 30-Minute Chart
Given that SPY is in an ascending wedge on the 30-minute chart, we can infer the following based on recent posts on X and general technical analysis principles:
Pattern Context:
The ascending wedge suggests SPY has been making higher highs and higher lows in a tightening range, indicating a potential exhaustion of the bullish trend.
Recent posts on X (e.g., @AskPerplexity on July 16, 2025) noted a rising wedge in SPY with a breakdown through the lower trendline, suggesting bearish momentum. Another post (@YakshuMadaan on July 15, 2025) mentioned a wedge breaking below 6220, targeting 6050 on the S&P 500 index ( SP:SPX ), which correlates to SPY levels around $605–$610.
Key Levels to Watch:
Lower Trendline (Support): The critical level to monitor is the lower trendline of the wedge, which connects the higher lows. A decisive break below this level (e.g., a close below on the 30-minute chart with strong volume) signals a bearish breakdown and potential selloff. Based on recent X posts, this level may have been around $622 (equivalent to ~6220 on SP:SPX ) recently, but you should confirm the exact level on the current chart.
Upper Trendline (Resistance): The upper trendline connects the higher highs and acts as resistance. If SPY fails to break above this level, it reinforces the bearish bias. This could be near recent highs, potentially around $630–$635, depending on the chart’s progression.
Support Zones Post-Breakdown: If the lower trendline breaks, key support levels to watch include:
$590–$600: A post on X highlighted this as a major support zone based on volume profile analysis, likely corresponding to a prior consolidation area or gap fill.
$605–$610: Another post suggested a target of 6050 on SP:SPX , translating to roughly $605–$610 for SPY, aligning with a significant retracement level.
Retest Level: After a breakdown, the price may retest the broken lower trendline (now resistance). For example, if the breakdown occurs at $622, a retest could see SPY rally back to $622–$625 before resuming the decline.ig.com
Volume and Indicators:
Volume: Look for declining volume as the wedge forms, followed by a spike on the breakdown to confirm the move. Low volume during the wedge suggests waning bullish momentum.xs.com
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An RSI above 70 near the upper trendline or showing bearish divergence (lower RSI highs while price makes higher highs) strengthens the case for a selloff.xs.com
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A bearish crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) near the upper trendline can confirm weakening momentum.xs.com
Potential Selloff Triggers:
A close below the lower trendline on the 30-minute chart, especially with a spike in volume, is the primary trigger for a selloff. For example, a break below $622 (if that’s the current support) could initiate a move toward $605–$610 or lower to $590–$600.
A failed retest of the broken trendline (e.g., SPY rallies to $622–$625 after breaking down but fails to reclaim the trendline) would confirm bearish continuation.
Broader Market Context: Recent X posts suggest market concerns about macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate fears, policy shifts) could amplify a selloff, especially if technical levels break.
SPY - On Our Way To Target 3 ...But First?Trading Fam,
It's been a while since I updated you all on the SPY, which, as you know, we track closely to help us determine the overall market trend. Since we have now exceeded my Target #2, it's time for me to give you all another update. But first, a little context for my new readers which I have been getting a lot of recently, thanks to my new indicator hitting it out of the park.
So, we began marking targets on our chart here after spotting an inverse H&S on the daily chart a few years ago. Many of my followers back then were doubtful the pattern would fully form, or if it did, that it would actually play out. But the pattern completed about 14 months ago and subsequently broke the neckline in June of last year. I then knew we were going full send and have been predicting a 700 SPY final target since. This target has been made utilizing both that inverse H&S pattern as well as a longer-trend Elliot Wave, which I don't have denoted here at this point. The chart gets too messy with all of my markings. Regardless, we are currently in wave 5 and heading steadily towards that 670-700 target #3, my final target.
But be careful! Today, we have hit the underside of that RED area, which is HUGE resistance. I would expect that we will NOT break straight through this without some pullback prior. Indeed, the market is overextended at this moment, and we'll need the volume to be able to push through. Could this occur? Of course, anything is possible. But, it is not likely right now.
My guess is that we'll at least pull back to one of those levels below us or possibly even re-touch that 200 SMA in red before the final push.
Anyways, it is worth taking note of what may be ahead of us in the next few weeks or months so that you can plan your trades accordingly. Stay with me. We're almost there.
✌️Stew
SPY at Decision Point! Gamma Walls vs. Rising Channel-Jul 28🧠 Technical Analysis (TA) – SPY Outlook
SPY is approaching a critical inflection zone near $638–$640, navigating through an ascending channel with compression in price action. This aligns with major Gamma Walls, offering both opportunity and risk. Here's the Monday breakdown using 1H, 15M, and GEX overlays:
🔍 Market Structure:
* 1H Chart shows a clean uptrend, forming a base around $637.50.
* 15M Chart reveals a consolidation zone after a Break of Structure (BOS), with a potential CHoCH below $636.65.
* Price is currently ranging inside a small supply zone and below an upper channel boundary.
🧲 GEX + Options Sentiment:
* GEX Extreme Gamma Resistance: $640–642 (strong CALL walls, potential reversal).
* PUT Wall Clusters: $634, $632, $628 (support zones on pullbacks).
* IVR: 12.4 – near low volatility.
* Put/Call $ Ratio: 51.4% Puts = Mild Bearish lean.
* NETGEX highest positive at $640 = Gamma magnet + potential resistance.
📌 Key Zones:
* Support: 636.15 → 634.42 → 633.00
* Resistance: 638.70 → 640.00 → 642.00
🟢 Bullish Scenario:
* If SPY reclaims 638.70 and breaks above channel top, watch for momentum toward 640–642, then reassess.
* 📥 Entry: 638.80+
* 🎯 Target: 640.40 → 641.80
* ⛔️ Stop: Below 636.65
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
* Failure to hold above 637.50 and break of CHoCH at 636.65 could invite pullback to 634.42 or even 632.90.
* 📥 Entry: Break & retest below 636.65
* 🎯 Target: 634.42 → 633.00
* ⛔️ Stop: Above 638.00
🔁 Scalping Levels (15M):
* Watch pink box consolidation zone (637.2–637.6) for breakout or rejection.
* Aggressive short scalp if early rejection from 638 near open.
🎯 Actionable Plan:
* Opening Above 638.70 = Lean CALLs, trail tight.
* Rejection at 638–638.5 = Look for PUTs back to 636.5/634.
* Clean break of 636.65 = Short bias opens for larger retrace.
* Gamma Squeeze possible only if > 640 holds and IV rises.
🧠 Thoughts:
SPY is coiling under macro resistance while IV remains low. Options market isn't leaning heavily bearish, but that could change if we slip below 636.65. Be mindful of the Gamma walls acting as magnets or reversion zones. This is a risk-defined week, so size down and react—not predict.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade with proper risk management.
SPY – Explosive strength above resistancePrice extends well above the 50-day EMA and pierces through the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting strong bullish momentum. RSI stands at 76, confirming overbought conditions, while MACD remains firmly positive.
The ongoing move leaves the EMA50 at 608 and the Fibonacci pivot at 607—both now acting as key support levels. With R1 at 620 already surpassed, the next potential resistance zone lies in uncharted territory beyond 636.
Volume has decreased by over 20%, which tempers the move slightly and should be monitored closely.
As long as price holds above 620, the bullish scenario remains valid.
Watch for any sudden spike in volume or a drop back below 636 as a possible shift signal.
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! SPY QQQ
Mag 7 forecast NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT GOOG
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1!
Mag 7 Forecast | NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT GOOG
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 U.S.–EU & U.S.–Japan Trade Optimism Lifts Sentiment
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record-high closes on July 23, fueled by optimism over a potential U.S.–EU trade deal mirroring the U.S.–Japan framework, with the EU-set tariff on autos potentially halved to 15%
💵 Dollar Retreats, Yields Climb
As markets shifted toward risk assets, U.S. Treasury yields increased and gold softened, while the dollar eased—highlighting growing confidence in trade-driven growth news
🏦 Fed Independence Under Pressure—But No July Cut Expected
A Reuters poll shows economists see heightened political pressure on the Fed jeopardizing its independence, though the consensus remains that rates will stay unchanged this month
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Thursday, July 24:
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly tally of new unemployment benefit applications—key indicator of labor-market conditions.
10:00 AM ET – New Residential Sales (June)
Tracks signed contracts for new homes, offering insight into housing demand under tightening mortgage rates.
All Day – Trade Headlines & Fed Watch
Continued focus on U.S.–EU trade developments and any follow-up to Fed independence concerns from policy circles.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #trade #economy #Fed #housing #jobs #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 23, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 23, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 Morgan Stanley Stays Bullish
Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its optimistic view, forecasting the S&P 500 will reach 7,200 by mid‑2026. They cited strong earnings and anticipated rate cuts as key drivers, though warned of risks from rising Treasury yields and tariff-related cost pressure
📉 Inflation Debate Reignites
A renewed debate is underway regarding whether tariffs are "transitory" or persistent inflation drivers. Treasury counselor Joseph Lavorgna argued tariff impacts will be one-off, while others caution long-term price pressures may persist, complicating Fed policy directions
🏛️ Calls for Fed Reform Intensify
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested structural reforms to the Federal Reserve could have greater long-term impact than removing Chair Powell, highlighting ongoing concerns over central-bank governance amid political criticism
💳 Investors Shift to Corporate Bonds
As equity valuations have surged, investors are reallocating toward investment-grade corporate bonds, reducing credit spreads to the tightest levels since 1998—a sign of elevated risk appetite balanced with caution
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Wednesday, July 23:
(No major U.S. economic releases)
Market focus remains on tech earnings (Tesla, Alphabet) and Fed signals following Tuesday’s Powell address.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investing decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #Fed #earnings #corporatebonds
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 28–August 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Faces Political Pressure
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 4.25%–4.50% during its FOMC meeting midweek. While rates are unchanged, political pressure from President Trump continues as calls intensify for rate cuts and questions arise over the Fed’s independence—including dissent from Governors Waller and Bowman.
📦 Trade Truce Extends & New Deal With EU
A new trade framework with the EU reduces tariffs to 15%, easing tensions. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese trade teams begin talks in Stockholm on Monday aiming to avoid an early-August tariff deadline.
💻 Tech and Mega-Cap Earnings Spotlight
This week features earnings from tech giants including Meta, Microsoft (Wednesday), followed by Amazon and Apple (Thursday). Markets will prioritize forward guidance around AI investments, capital expenditures, and sales trends.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, July 28
No major releases
📅 Tuesday, July 29
Chicago PMI (July flash) – early indicator of regional manufacturing trends.
Global PMIs – flash readings for Europe and Asia gauge economic health.
📅 Wednesday, July 30
FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference – investors will scrutinize tone, forward guidance on rates, labor markets, and inflation.
Q2 U.S. GDP (Advance Estimate) – expected at ~1.9%, signaling rebound after Q1 contraction.
📅 Thursday, July 31
June PCE & Core PCE Indexes – Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Core PCE expected at ~2.7% YoY.
Consumer Confidence (July) – key for household spending trends.
Trade Balance (June) – provides data on U.S. import/export dynamics.
📅 Friday, August 1
July Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment & Wage Data – forecast for ~102,000 new jobs and ~4.2% unemployment; markets await for labor-market cooling signs.
Tariff Deadline – new tariffs loom unless trade agreements with EU, Canada, China etc. materialize by today’s cutoff.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This summary is educational and informational only. It is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #inflation #tariffs #GDP #PCE #jobs #technicalanalysis
