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SpyHoliday update.. This should cover some levels into the next few weeks.. I'll be going over SPY IWM DJI QQQ Market goes no where without tech So let's start with Q's Back inside wedge here Upside of the Wedge is 533ish.. Next few days - 531 is resistance.. over 531.50 and QQQ pushes back up to 533.. over 534 and it melts up to close gap 538. 527.50 - 531.50 is chop.. Below 527 and 524 comes.. Nasdaq futures are over extended so I'd be weary of swinging calls.. up near 531-533 the air will be thin and they won't be able to push all technology expect some big names to be red and some green Iwm.. I'm actually mid term bullish here.. I think money will rotate from fang and back into small caps for a push back to 232-234 over the next few weeks. But first Iwm needs to reclaim 226.. that area between 224-226 is a vicious resistance; IWM only broke over it with Trump election.. Using Fib levels From 2023 low and ATH and you'll get .236 fib resistance at 225, add to that you have the Weekly 20sma at 224.70. I would not buy calls here unless it clears 226.00. Over 226 and we head back to 232 first stop 220-224 is chop.. Below 217 is bearish to 212 TVC:DJI Dow jones Earlier this month Dow jones , TVC:NYA , AMEX:IWM AMEX:XLF All rejected of this long term trend line here. And as you saw they've all bleed the entire month. Looking at Some major Sectors (Health, Transport, energy) , they are oversold and honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see the dow push back up to 44k or maybe even to retest that trend line for the doubletop. Here's what the price action looks like on the daily.. Price needs to break back above 43,500 or 50sma for a move back to 20sma or 40k.. Support is 42,800.. below that and we head back to 42k.. Will all depend on how sincere they are about a energy ,Healthcare rebound. Despite the next week movements I expect dow jones to retest 40,000 in Q1 Lastly spy To be short , Spy will need Qqq to break over 531 to push above 602.50.. You have to understand, Spy goes nowhere with out tech.. if the dow jones rallied 300pts and nasdaq dropped 180pts Spy would finish red. Aapl is worth almost 4 trillion, that evaluation in itself is bigger than the entire Health sector and Financial sector combined. Above 603 and spy closes gap at 607 Below 598 and spy closes gap at 594 598-602 is chop Spy will only break over 603 if QQQ can break over 533.. they are both connected. Only 2 catalyst in the next few days... Japan's CPI Thursday after the close will influence Friday's price.. The volume will remain muted until after new years So I'd go light and be nimble on any position. Also End of year tax harvesting and Rebalancing will give us a nice Red day between now New years.. Opinion - The extreme discrepancy in some of these stocks is crazy.. Example, look at ExxonMobil technicals , Now look at aapl technicals.. look at the energy sector XLE then look at the Communication sector XLC.. I think in the coming weeks/Months Warren buffet bet on OXY will pay off I'll keep this post open for updates for the next 2 weeks.. Happy new years
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
29
Ruh Roh, looks like SPY's in trouble..Hey guys, Thought I would do a written post this time because there is a lot of information to share! So, if you follow me, you know I am mostly about math, but I also like to include the chart, some technicals and some fundamentals. And I think at this point in time its very critical to consider all these factors when analyze the price action we see. So SPY is selling. To be honest, I am not surprised of the selling, but I am surprised of the timing. I thought it would wait till January, just chopping around and topping before doing the whole waterfall thing. But it decided to jump on the opportunity with FOMC's news release. We will get into that in one second. So with that catalyst, SPY began its decline, over 2% in one day, closing below a loss of 2% on the day. We then opened slightly gapped up but failed to start, where we continued to tank. So what is going on? Fundamentals The market got what it wanted, a 25 basis point cut. However, the guidance offered by the feds was a bit more realistic and sobering. The guidance essentially indicated that rate cuts would not continue for long and they don't anticipate anymore than 2 rate cuts into next year, leading to a period of rate purgatory so to speak. This is generally not great because it destroys the premise of "easy money". Easy money is money that people can get due to low interest rates and a surplus of fund availability. However, with the lack of rate cuts, we will hover at a stable albeit elevated interest rate with no outlook of when rates will be lowered and when interest rates will be cheaper. This is bad, because in order for people to feel wealthier, they need to feel like things are cheaper or that they have more money, which isn't a direct consequence of prolonged rate hiking. This means that people will be less inclined to invest into unnecessary things (stock market perhaps) and keep funds safe for whatever the future may hold. The reason the feds can take this stance is because the labour market is rebounding. This means that people are generally gainfully employed and can withstand the rate hikes / rate stagnation. Not necessarily detrimental for the market, but in general, higher unemployment is good for the big picture of markets because it means rates will need to be lower. This leads to the next fundamental topic, Money! 2024 marked historic deficit highs for the US, with 1.8 trillion deficit in 2024. And if you watched my video about SPX and the money supply, having a US index valued well over all the monetary supply in circulation within the US, its not a normal or healthy or sustainable thing, especially when the US is already experiencing grave deficits. PE ratios I won't get into this too much, but take a look at some companies PE ratios in relation to their fundamentals, things were getting a little off kilter here... Now for the Math If you followed me through the last little crash SPY / SPX did in the end of July, you would have remembered this video: In this video, I explain my own theory of "corrections". From my own research looking at DJI and SPX (since both have histories since the 1800s), one thing I have noted is there are generally 3 stages of correction, from a math perspective. Stage 1: Cubic Correation This is a shallow correction and involves a correction to the 'cubic' mean of a ticker or index. It generally results when the ticker, specifically spy, exceeds the cubic mean by up to 5%. Currently, SPY's cubic mean is 557, with the actual range being 555 - 559. Remember, this moves with each passing day. That is just as of right now, today's close. In 20 days the range will be up to 563. These corrections are shallow and usually involve about a 5% to 10% pullback. As of right now, the cubic mean is approximately 8% away from the recent highs. Stage 2: Quartic Correction If the market isn't satisfied with a cubic correction (for general interest, in July we simply did a cubic correction back to 510 and then resumed the uptrend), we will see next a quartic correction. This is a reversion to the quartic mean, which generally is an addition 10 to 15% away. In SPY's case currently, the quartic mean is 544, with a range of 542 - 546/ This is a deeper correction but not necessarily a bear market. Quartic corrections usually are the halmark of "flash crashes". Stage 3: Quadratic Correction, AKA Bear Market Cycle In 2022 we had a quadratic correction, that was a regression to the quadratic mean. If you have been around for a long time and followed me through 2022, you will remember I called a move to 350s. Most thought I was nuts, but it was because SPY had already fallen through the cubic mean and that signaled that it was intent on following through to a quartic and possibly quadratic. It was confirmed relatively quickly in 2022, at least for me, that it was looking for a quadratic correction (i.e. bear market cycle) as it quickly fell through both cubic and quartic means. Currently, SPY's quadratic mean is 475, with a range of 472 to 477. Quadratic corrections take, on average, 6 months to a year, which is the normal bear market cycle. Only once have I observed a fall below the quadratic range and that was in 2008 (obviously I wasn't trading at this time, but when I was testing these theories this was the only year where the market didn't get stopped by the bottom of the quadratic range, every other bear market/correction got halted at the bottom of the quadratic range or at the quadratic mean itself). So what does this mean for you the trader? It means relax. We haven't even seen a cubic correction as of yet. For SPY to assert a bear market cycle thesis, we will need to see SPY shoot through the cubic mean. However, obviously vigilance needs to be maintained. This isn't the time to mindlessly buy dips until we see it finding support on one of the critical means. Will it correct to the means? Yes, mostly likely we will see at minimum, a cubic correction. The reason I think this is just the fundamentals currently support it. Will we go lower than the cubic mean? Hard to say. No one can be sure, obviously. The economic situation isn't super precarious, so I am skeptical of seeing an overly profound dip or the commencement of a bear market, but I will be diligently watching where support is found. How do we know if it doesn't want to correct to one of the means? This is a good question! Most pullbacks involve at least a correction to one of the means, but there have been times where it bypassed, only to circle back in about a 6-month period. We will only be sure that SPY does not intend to mean revert if we break a new high from the current high (aka a new ATH) prior to correcting to the mean. I know this doesn't seem super helpful, but its the only way that is a telltale sign that it doesn't intend on correcting. However, many of these cases where it went back to make a new high, it ended up crashing to the cubic and quartic mean some 1 to 2 months later :-/. So where should we be looking to buy? If you want to buy as a swing trade, I would wait to see if this is going to find support at one of the means. If I wanted to buy as an investor with the long term vision in sight, then you can buy anywhere really. Stocks will only ever permanently go up and bear market cycles and mean corrections are just fleeting passings that are quickly absorbed into obscurity. I bet many of you forgot that we crashed in July ;). Will it happen quicky? The average Cubic correction takes about 1 week. In July I think it lasted about 2 weeks because those relentless dip buyers. Hard to say but the historic average is 1 week. How do we know if it will go lower? In July, SPY went 1 point lower than the cubic mean and it was enough to make me, erroneously of course, call the end is nye. I was wrong obviously, because SPY quickly recovered. So I would say, hitting the general cubic range, even if it is below by 1 or 2 points, if it recovers there, that would be a good sign for a continuation up. Summary So kudos to you if you read this long! Moral of this story is we should see a correction, likely greater than 5%, to the cubic mean. Remember the cubic mean is constantly increasing with each passing day, so we will need to be mindful of where it is and when contact is made. For convenience, I will update with that information as we either completely reverse away from it or approach it. Don't get too bearish, Cubic corrections are not usually a very bearish thing. Instead, they serve the purpose of providing buying opportunities for late entrants. The economic situation of the US is right now uncertain until Trump takes presidency. Not sure of his economic plans, but in general he has stimulated economic growth. This would of course be good for markets. Hopefully you found this informative. There were other things I wanted to discuss but I think this is enough for now. Leave your questions below and safe trades everyone!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
35
SpyIts looking like 566 will come .. I talked about this sell on Dow,NYA and Iwm in my spy post (See link).. its happening.. once QQQ breaks below 514 spy will target 575 20sma and it may dead cat bounce but the full target is 566... All you have to do is watch QQQ , once 514 goes, its Good night.. I wont go into the technicals because you can go over my previous post on Spy and QQQ and see every thing is playing... If qqq doesnt break 514 then no sell. And for those wondering about a christmas rally , qqq went from 498 to 540 in the first 2 weeks of Dec. U got your rally!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
24
Traders BEWARE! Extreme Volatility In 2025-26. LOOK OUT!I just completed a deep dive into my Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system, and I'm here to tell you that 2025 and most of 2026 will be highly volatile. If you do not attempt to stay ahead of these market trends, you could suffer a loss of 35% to 45% (or more) over the next 18 months or more. If you want to learn how to navigate these trends, I suggest you find someone you trust to help you identify the best opportunities for your investments and trading. This is no joke. This is the type of event that destroys trader's accounts and disrupts global economies. If you are not prepared for this, get busy trying to find someone to help you. Merry Christmas. Buckle up. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising. Entry: Current Market Price Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room. Targets: All time high Ideas and Inputs are welcome. Thank you for dropping by. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Krut4rth7
5
Spy to 612There’s really not much left to say. Spy will finish retracing the feds rate decision and blast off to new highs. Big names are either regaining their ground ( NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:MSFT ) or leading the way ( NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:NVDA ). Anyone looking to get short or calling for a dump are people who were calling for 550 and are now 50 points underwater🫡 I wouldn’t listen to someone who looks at this chart and says “it has to go down”. Only people left calling for it to go down are those Elliot Wave people and they change their thesis every 15 min candle 😂 NEW ATH!!!!!
AMEX:SPYLong
by pricej3
4
Spy Whats Next NowWell everyone I've been calling for a 3% drop for the past 10 days and caught it lol!!!! I hope all of you that followed me crushed again and made money!!! Update to the New Narrative Trend Which the stock was Ticker QUBT I entered at $6.50 exited at $23 that I posted this week Resulting in a 4x stock move in 4 days causing some of my options plays to 10-15x insane in 2 days lol!! So What's next for Spy I Believe there will be a dead cat bounce resulting in a price to hit a target of 595-600 this year!!! I believe QQQ SPY both topped out for this year!!! So I Will be investing in The number 1 stock for 2025 resulting in a safe 10x trade by March content out now Good Luck Traders!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
10
Thank You, TradingView Community!I want to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude to everyone in this incredible community. The opportunity to share my Technical Analysis (TA) and connect with so many of you has been an amazing journey. I’m truly humbled by the kindness and appreciation I’ve received. Many of you who have achieved significant wins have even sent me thoughtful gifts as a token of thanks, while others who are still on the path to recovery have reached out to share their gratitude as well. Your support means more to me than words can express and motivates me to keep contributing and improving in the coming year. Whether you’re celebrating victories or working toward a brighter trading future, I’m here to support you every step of the way. Let’s make 2025 a year filled with growth, learning, and success! Thank you for being part of this journey and for allowing me to share my passion with you. Cheers to a bright future ahead! See you next year!
AMEX:SPYLong
by BullBearInsights
4
$SPY December 26, 2024AMEX:SPY December 26, 2024 15 Minutes. I had expected 200 averages in 15 minutes to be resisted. It broke and held on to that for more than 2 hours on the 24th of December. For the rise 592.25 to 601.34 it is important to hold 597 levels for uptrend to continue. It is also 21 averages in 15 minutes. For the larger rise 580.91 to 601.34 holding 593-594 is crucial to hold. Above 603 I expect a 3 to 5 $ move which was resisted earlier before the fall. At the moment I will sell only below 588 for good 10$ move. 575-578 is a crucial number to hold on downside. In daily uptrend is intact.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RiderTrader
3
SPY is going up and into the New YearThe SPY will start going up and continue into the New Year for about 14 days which has been the average upward movement in the past few months. I typically use Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as they show more of a directional move as opposed to regular candles. However, since I have used regular candles in the past, I tend to switch back and forth until I get more comfortable with the Heinkin Ashi Candlesticks. You can see my past posts on why I favour the Heinkin Ashi Candlesticks. Typically, you are only supposed to enter after you see 2 green candlesticks of the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks. In the past, there has been an average move of 34 points on the SPY which would make the target point of 614. (There has been an extreme move of 53 points, but I think that is unlikely. That would make the target equal to 633. But that is an extreme point not a likely point.) The Fibonacci number of 1.618 is 624. This is a good second target point. My time target is about a 12 to 14 day move. This would make Jan 9th the time target. If the SPY hits any one of those targets I am out of my trade. Happy Trading!! In the last few days of the month of January or beginning of February, I suspect the market will start to head lower for that one month. But I will address that in my next chart. The market can always change between now and then. Summary: 34 point move= 614 1.618 fib move=624 12 day move = Jan 9th **can be an extreme move of 53 points, but unlikely= 633 There is an online trading conference/summit I try to attend every 3 to 4 months where I have gotten some of my ideas from. The next one is from Jan 13th - 18th called Wealth365 You can register for the event at www.wealth365.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
2
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) Short Setup – Retracement OpportunityOverview: The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) shows a potential short opportunity, leveraging a confluence of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci resistance. This setup aligns with a bearish corrective pattern, presenting a chance to capture downside momentum amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. 📊 Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Structure: Wave W completed with a sharp decline, followed by a retracement in Wave X. Anticipating the continuation of Wave Y lower, targeting Fibonacci extensions. Fibonacci Levels: Entry Zone: $598.33–$599.23 (between the 61.8% and 65% retracement). - Stop-Loss: $606.64 (above the 88% retracement to account for false breakouts). - Target 1: $585.78 – Aligns with prior support and Fibonacci extensions. - Target 2: $570.14 – Extended target toward the 1.618 projection. Short Zone Confirmation: The short zone aligns with key resistance levels that previously rejected bullish attempts. 🌐 Macro Overview: Economic Indicators: Rising treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns are weighing on equities, particularly large-cap indices. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates adds pressure to SPY's bullish outlook. Seasonal Trends: Historical December pullbacks in risk assets during rate-hike cycles favor bearish scenarios. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment remains cautious, with increasing volatility indicating indecision in the broader market. 📈 Trade Plan: Short Entry: Wait for price action to retrace into the short zone ($598.33–$599.23). Risk-Reward: Targeting a 3:1 risk-reward ratio with both short-term and extended profit targets. Caution: Monitor fundamental announcements such as labor market data or Federal Reserve statements, as these could drive volatility and invalidate the setup. 📌 Final Thoughts: SPY offers a clean technical setup supported by a bearish macro narrative. This trade allows for tight risk management while capturing a potential extended downside move. Let me know your thoughts or if you'd trade this setup differently! 🚨📉
AMEX:SPYShort
by MrStockWhale
3
$SPY #RisingWedge #BreakDOWN #ReTest #RecessionI highlighted the potential topping formation that could for especially if we see a rejection around 598-601 on XMas EVE via #XMasAlert. This morning I am seeing signs of momentum wearing off PLUS what looks like a #BreakDOWN-ReTEST of a rising wedge look to the AMEX:SPY , check my TSLA to 420.69 Chart for conceptualization of this break out BELOW; In my post 2 days ago () I mentioned Strikes TBD. Well here are my favorites; SPY 560P 3.21 (Bigger Risk Reward) SPY 600P 3.21 (Essentially ATM Short w some Leverage) -Prophecies PS; 1) "I LOVE GOLD" - Fat BastarD 2) DONT OVER LOOK GOLD SAFETY HAVEN VIA CRYPTOCAP:BTC Headwinds? 3) And Don't Overlook NASDAQ:TSLA momentum... TO UPSIDE STILL (500Cs will be a play at somepoint this year #StayTuned)
AMEX:SPYShort
by Prophecies_R_Us
2
SPY Technical Analysis for Tomorrow - Dec. 231. Key Levels * Resistance Levels: * $594.00: Immediate resistance level based on recent price action. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and critical test zone. * $608.50: Longer-term resistance from prior highs. * Support Levels: * $588.00: Current consolidation support zone. * $582.30: Intermediate support level based on prior rejections. * $577.74: Major structural low and critical support from the recent bounce. Observations and Price Action 1. Trend: * SPY bounced strongly from $577.74, creating a higher low, indicating short-term bullish momentum. * Price is consolidating under $594.00, which could act as a key pivot point for the next move. 2. Stochastic RSI: * The Stochastic RSI is entering overbought territory, suggesting potential slowing momentum or a pullback before another leg up. 3. Volume: * The recent move off $577.74 was accompanied by rising volume, signaling buying interest at key support. My Thoughts on SPY’s Direction * Bullish Bias: SPY is likely to retest $594.00 and potentially break higher toward $600.00 if buying momentum continues. * Bearish Risks: If $594.00 holds as resistance, a pullback to $588.00 or even $582.30 could occur. I lean slightly bullish, but a breakout above $594.00 is essential for further upside. Watch for rejection signals if SPY struggles to clear this level. Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario: * Entry: On a breakout above $594.00 with strong volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $600.00. * Extended: $608.50. * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to minimize risk. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: On rejection at $594.00 or breakdown below $588.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $582.30. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $595.00 for rejection trades or $589.50 for breakdown trades. Key Focus Areas * $594.00 Resistance: Watch for a breakout or rejection. * Volume Confirmation: Ensure volume aligns with the direction of the move. * Momentum Shift: Monitor the Stochastic RSI for signs of a reversal or continuation. Conclusion SPY is consolidating near a critical resistance level at $594.00. A breakout would open the door to $600.00, while rejection could lead to a pullback toward $588.00 or lower. The direction tomorrow will largely depend on how SPY reacts to the $594.00 level. ----------- Option Trading Scalping and Long/Short Strategy for SPY ------------ 1. Scalping Strategy for Options Key Observations from GEX Levels and Chart * Resistance Levels: * $593.00: Strong resistance, aligns with the 3rd Call Wall (53.16% GEX). * $598.00: Another key resistance from the 2nd Call Wall. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and CALL Resistance level (93.35%). * Support Levels: * $587.00: High Volume Level (HVL) and critical support zone. * $583.74: Highest negative gamma exposure (Put Support). * $577.74: Recent swing low and major structural support. * Options Oscillator Insight: * IV Rank is moderate (27.6%), indicating stable implied volatility. * Puts outweigh Calls (48.3%), showing slight bearish sentiment. Scalping Call Options (Bullish Setup): * Entry: If SPY breaks above $593.00 with volume confirmation. * Target: $598.00 (short-term target) and $600.00 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to manage risk. Why It Works:
The breakout above $593.00 aligns with gamma-driven resistance at $598.00 and $600.00, signaling momentum to the upside. Scalping Put Options (Bearish Setup): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00. * Target: $583.74 (short-term target) and $577.74 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Above $593.50 for rejections or $588.00 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
Failure to hold $587.00 would push SPY toward negative gamma zones, with increased bearish pressure targeting the next support levels. 2. Long/Short Strategy Long Strategy (Bullish Case): * Entry: Above $593.00 with sustained price action and volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $598.00. * Extended: $600.00. * Stop-Loss: Below $591.00 to minimize downside risk. Why It Works:
Breaking $593.00 indicates bullish momentum with gamma resistance weakening as the price moves higher. Short Strategy (Bearish Case): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or a confirmed breakdown below $587.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $583.74. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $594.00 for rejection trades, or $588.50 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
A failed breakout or breakdown aligns with bearish sentiment from the options flow, targeting downside gamma zones. 3. Additional Notes * Volume Confirmation: * Monitor volume spikes near $593.00 for breakouts or rejections. * Timeframe: * Use the 1-minute or 5-minute chart for scalping. * Strike Selection: * Focus on at-the-money (ATM) options with 7–14 DTE for scalping. Conclusion * Bullish Scenario: Breakout above $593.00 targets $598.00 and $600.00. * Bearish Scenario: Rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00 targets $583.74 and $577.74. Keep a close eye on price action, volume, and gamma levels to guide your entries and exits effectively. 🚀 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2
SPY to $650 in January?SPY recently retraced to the bottom of our Magic Linear Regression Channel with a large 3%+ move. Today, there was a nice bounce bounce from the channel bottom, back up to yesterday's open. So, what's next for SPY. The Magic Linear Regression Channel shows upside potential to it's baseline back at its recent all-time highs, and the potential for a higher move to the $630-$650 range. However, there is also the potential for it to fall back through the channel. Since we've been in a bull market for awhile now, that channel break would have to happen more definitively in order for that to be a likely scenario. We've recently introduced the Magic Candles PRO indicator, which shows high volume candles that have very little price movement. When paired with the Magic Linear Regression Channel on a 1 day chart, it tends to show reversals at key levels on the Magic Linear Regression Channel. However, because we had a large move down on Weds, Dec. 17th 2024, and a large move up on Friday, Dec. 20th 2024 and ended up at the open of Thurs., Dec. 18th 2024, we get a doji on the 2 day chart that shows a massive "volume hammer" signal not seen since 2019, 5 years ago. This signals that we are on the verge of a large sustained move. Again, because we've been in a bull market, and there aren't any very strong signs that it is over, we suspect that the large sustained move will be to the upside, because of the signal. If the price breaks down out of the channel, then we'll be in for a nice downward ride. Until that happens, though, we're bullish as we approach the all-time high again, and all the way to the $630-$650 range.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mwrightinc
2
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) About To Go Down - TIMBER!📉 Overview: The S&P 500 (SPY) is signaling a bearish reversal with technical and momentum indicators aligning for a potential decline. A completed 5th wave top, coupled with a breakdown from the bearish wedge, hints at deeper corrections in the coming sessions. 📊 Technical Analysis: Elliott Wave Count: SPY has likely completed its 5th wave top, marking the end of the bullish cycle. Bearish Wedge Breakout: Price has decisively broken below the rising wedge's trendline, a historically reliable bearish signal. Momentum Indicators: - RSI Divergence: Clear bearish divergence as price created higher highs while RSI formed lower highs. - MACD: Loss of upward momentum, with the MACD histogram turning negative. Fibonacci Targets: - Retracement Zone (B): $598–$606 (61.8%–88% retracement of recent decline). - Target 1 (C): $570.35 (1.0 Fibonacci extension). - Target 2 (C): $559.67–$553.07 (1.382–1.618 Fibonacci extension). 🌐 Macro Sentiment: Interest Rate Concerns: Continued hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could weigh on equities, particularly as valuations remain elevated. Economic Slowdown: Weakening macroeconomic data and potential earnings downgrades in early 2025 could amplify selling pressure. Seasonality and Risk-Off Trends: End-of-year profit-taking and increased geopolitical risks may favor defensive positions. ⚡ Trade Plan: - Short Zone: $598–$606 (retracement of recent sell-off). - Stop-Loss: $606.82 – Above the 88% Fibonacci retracement and resistance. Targets: - Target 1: $570.35 (solid risk-reward). - Target 2: $553.07 (extended move aligning with wedge breakdown projection). 🔍 Considerations: Monitor economic data, including inflation, GDP growth, and job numbers, for additional confirmation. Watch for further MACD weakness and RSI failing to reclaim bullish momentum levels. Do you think SPY will see a sharper correction, or are bulls likely to regain control? Share your insights! 🚨📊
AMEX:SPYShort
by MrStockWhale
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-23: BreakAway PatternToday's pattern is a Break Away pattern. I'm not expecting much to happen just before Christmas, but this is when surprises may happen. If you have not already protected your capital - now is the time to do it (almost too late at this point). You should be prepared for anything that happens and move into a position of safety related to the holidays. Remember, the markets will always be here. Get through the holidays and get busy trying to enjoy your life. I suspect the markets will stay very flat over the next 3 to 5+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY: More Selling Going Into New YearSPY RSI on the monthly chart is showing an acceleration of selling going into the next few weeks, the 1.618 fib extension from today's high shows a perfect placement to the support created on Nov. 1 2024, and the EW count is showing today's high as the end of wave 2 retracement wave. Wave 3 will be the highest volume wave and will bring SPY down to 568 at the end of wave 3 or wave 5. Expecting Wave 3 to end at 568 and Wave 3 to bring SPY down to 565 over the next 2-4 weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by FiboTrader1
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-27-24: Momentum Rally PatternThe last Friday of the year (2024) should show up as a moderate Momentum Rally in the SPY/QQQ - possibly seeing the SPY target 603 or higher by the end of the day. Gold and Silver are consolidating into a FLAGGING formation. Bitcoin is trapped in a consolidation range (right shoulder) pattern that should break downward over the next 5+ days. This is the time to position your trades for the beginning of 2025 and prepare for moderate volatility as the markets struggle for direction. The Momentum Rally pattern, today, should present a very clean opportunity for skilled day traders. I believe a deeper low is likely to setup between January 15 and January 25, 2025. So, be prepared for another roll to the downside after we get past the New Year. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2