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SPY trade ideas

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-27-24: Momentum Rally PatternThe last Friday of the year (2024) should show up as a moderate Momentum Rally in the SPY/QQQ - possibly seeing the SPY target 603 or higher by the end of the day. Gold and Silver are consolidating into a FLAGGING formation. Bitcoin is trapped in a consolidation range (right shoulder) pattern that should break downward over the next 5+ days. This is the time to position your trades for the beginning of 2025 and prepare for moderate volatility as the markets struggle for direction. The Momentum Rally pattern, today, should present a very clean opportunity for skilled day traders. I believe a deeper low is likely to setup between January 15 and January 25, 2025. So, be prepared for another roll to the downside after we get past the New Year. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
SPY Eyeing a Breakout! Scalping, Swing & Options StrategiesMarket Structure: * SPY is trending within an ascending wedge pattern, holding above key EMAs (9 and 21), suggesting bullish momentum with caution near resistance levels. * Current price at $600 indicates a consolidation phase near critical Gamma resistance levels, with the potential for a breakout or pullback. Key Levels to Watch: * Support Zones: * $598: Immediate support, aligned with the Gamma 2nd PUT wall. * $597: Strong support from the Gamma 3rd PUT wall and wedge base. * Resistance Zones: * $602: Critical resistance; breaking above signals bullish continuation. * $604: Next resistance target near Gamma levels and technical confluence. Indicator Insights: * MACD: Flat but in bullish territory; watch for crossover to confirm momentum. * Volume: Declining during consolidation; expect a spike for a breakout or breakdown. * Options Oscillator: IVR (2.6) indicates low implied volatility, favoring directional plays near GEX levels. Scalping Strategy: 1. Bullish Setup: * Enter on a break above $602 with high volume. * Targets: $604 and $606. * Stop Loss: Below $601. 2. Bearish Setup: * Enter on a breakdown below $598 with bearish momentum. * Targets: $597 and $595. * Stop Loss: Above $599. 3. Tools to Use: * Use RSI and VWAP for intraday momentum confirmation. * React quickly to price action at Gamma-determined levels ($598, $602). Swing Trading Strategy: 1. Bullish Scenario: * Enter on a daily close above $602 with volume confirmation. * Targets: $604 and $606 for a short-term swing. * Stop Loss: Below $600. 2. Bearish Scenario: * Enter if SPY closes below $598 and sustains bearish momentum. * Targets: $595 and $590. * Stop Loss: Above $599. 3. Indicators to Monitor: * EMA (9/21) for momentum confirmation. * Volume spikes to confirm direction near key levels. Options Strategy Based on GEX: 1. Bullish Options Play: * Buy a Call Option with a $600 strike expiring in 1-2 weeks. * Target: Exit near $604 or $606. * Stop Loss: Close the trade if SPY falls below $598. 2. Bearish Options Play: * Buy a Put Option with a $598 strike expiring in 1-2 weeks. * Target: Exit near $597 or $595. * Stop Loss: Close the trade if SPY rises above $599. 3. Neutral Strategy: * Sell a Put Credit Spread at $598/$596, profiting from SPY staying above $598. * Maximum profit achieved if SPY remains above $598 by expiration. 4. Advanced Gamma Strategy: * If SPY holds above $602, consider selling a Call Spread at $604/$606 to collect premium while capping risk. Actionable Plan for SPY: * Scalpers should focus on intraday moves between $598 and $602, with quick reactions to price action. * Swing traders can capitalize on breakouts above $602 or breakdowns below $598 with clear targets and stops. * Options traders should leverage low IV and GEX levels for directional or neutral premium-selling strategies. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Blast offLook, Spy is bullish and that makes bears really mad. They have to resort to Elliot Wave Theory, "Hidden" bearish divergence (its so hidden, its plastered all over the internet) and calling it a scam. NEWSFLASH It is a scam. Why fight it? Anyone who hopped on calls Last friday has made their next 3 years of profits inside of a shortened holiday week. What did you do? Listen to your furus with weird a$$ nicknames on here tell you that it has to go down because they drove thru a random neighborhood in Cali and saw less xmas lights than last year (that is an actual post/reason in the ideas section on SPY). You want to keep throwing your money at worthless put options be my guest. Every dip has been bought because everyone crams through the door on a $1 pullback, and becomes rocket fuel. Time to blast off.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Tstevesminus3600
SPY: More Selling Going Into New YearSPY RSI on the monthly chart is showing an acceleration of selling going into the next few weeks, the 1.618 fib extension from today's high shows a perfect placement to the support created on Nov. 1 2024, and the EW count is showing today's high as the end of wave 2 retracement wave. Wave 3 will be the highest volume wave and will bring SPY down to 568 at the end of wave 3 or wave 5. Expecting Wave 3 to end at 568 and Wave 3 to bring SPY down to 565 over the next 2-4 weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by FiboTrader1
1
Buy Back Exhaustion \ Fed Pause \ Confidence \ Beat of the drum Consumer confidence is putting up fresh data points to suggest that we will fall below 100. Took a drive around the wealthy parts of town on Christmas night and noticed a severe lack of lighting where in previous years these neighborhoods would be lit up like the sun. Fed has flagged that if interest rates continue to rise than a pause or maybe even a raise in rates is coming. Don't be fooled as company's artificially inflate prices. They will soon run out of buyback funds and what looks like a new punch through to another ATH is just a massive rug pull before we see what first looks like a correction and then a serious crash. I will not be surprised if we see 520's by end of Q1 and 570 by the end of January. I am currently short and looking to add after this next double top coming tomorrow. If I am wrong and we continue past 602 then I will wait for a new entry soon after with confirmation. Puts to 570 at 3 months out should pay nicely if these things add up. If I am wrong I will play the upside and abandoned my speculation until I see another major down ward move. Stay open minded and play what you see. If you dont see what I see... dont get mad. Its just speculation. Go to tik tok to yell your bias.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Painfully_Average
3
SpyHoliday update.. This should cover some levels into the next few weeks.. I'll be going over SPY IWM DJI QQQ Market goes no where without tech So let's start with Q's Back inside wedge here Upside of the Wedge is 533ish.. Next few days - 531 is resistance.. over 531.50 and QQQ pushes back up to 533.. over 534 and it melts up to close gap 538. 527.50 - 531.50 is chop.. Below 527 and 524 comes.. Nasdaq futures are over extended so I'd be weary of swinging calls.. up near 531-533 the air will be thin and they won't be able to push all technology expect some big names to be red and some green Iwm.. I'm actually mid term bullish here.. I think money will rotate from fang and back into small caps for a push back to 232-234 over the next few weeks. But first Iwm needs to reclaim 226.. that area between 224-226 is a vicious resistance; IWM only broke over it with Trump election.. Using Fib levels From 2023 low and ATH and you'll get .236 fib resistance at 225, add to that you have the Weekly 20sma at 224.70. I would not buy calls here unless it clears 226.00. Over 226 and we head back to 232 first stop 220-224 is chop.. Below 217 is bearish to 212 TVC:DJI Dow jones Earlier this month Dow jones , TVC:NYA , AMEX:IWM AMEX:XLF All rejected of this long term trend line here. And as you saw they've all bleed the entire month. Looking at Some major Sectors (Health, Transport, energy) , they are oversold and honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see the dow push back up to 44k or maybe even to retest that trend line for the doubletop. Here's what the price action looks like on the daily.. Price needs to break back above 43,500 or 50sma for a move back to 20sma or 40k.. Support is 42,800.. below that and we head back to 42k.. Will all depend on how sincere they are about a energy ,Healthcare rebound. Despite the next week movements I expect dow jones to retest 40,000 in Q1 Lastly spy To be short , Spy will need Qqq to break over 531 to push above 602.50.. You have to understand, Spy goes nowhere with out tech.. if the dow jones rallied 300pts and nasdaq dropped 180pts Spy would finish red. Aapl is worth almost 4 trillion, that evaluation in itself is bigger than the entire Health sector and Financial sector combined. Above 603 and spy closes gap at 607 Below 598 and spy closes gap at 594 598-602 is chop Spy will only break over 603 if QQQ can break over 533.. they are both connected. Only 2 catalyst in the next few days... Japan's CPI Thursday after the close will influence Friday's price.. The volume will remain muted until after new years So I'd go light and be nimble on any position. Also End of year tax harvesting and Rebalancing will give us a nice Red day between now New years.. Opinion - The extreme discrepancy in some of these stocks is crazy.. Example, look at ExxonMobil technicals , Now look at aapl technicals.. look at the energy sector XLE then look at the Communication sector XLC.. I think in the coming weeks/Months Warren buffet bet on OXY will pay off I'll keep this post open for updates for the next 2 weeks.. Happy new years
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
31
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY SPYLOVERS !!!Two weeks ago, I projected some very common behaviors that candles exhibit after a long rally. If you compare the two types of candles I marked on the left-hand side, notice how candle models "A" and "B" have very different body structures. Candles "A" have a more volumetric medium-sized body, which indicates strength. However, we are not exempt from their natural pullback, which, to complete one trend cycle, broke the structure itself upward. Candles "B" are smaller than Candles "A," allowing us to distinguish the significant weakness in the uptrend. The price starts to lose momentum, and consequently, we can expect it to take a pause before falling. After projecting the two scenarios where SPY was positioned two weeks ago, we were able to predict both future movements correctly: When the price reached historical highs, it paused or consolidated, showing descending candles (see the magenta arrow). Later, a volumetric candle confirmed the drop. Within the two scenarios, I marked two possible levels where the price would fall. The rebound occurred correctly at the second level, a historical resting zone where the price has been since October. This analysis is entirely based on price action and historical zones. It's essential to stay alert to institutional and liquidity zones to ensure the most accurate analysis possible. Now we are in the final week of the year, and historically, markets tend to react bullishly. But the question is: Will it be different this time? In my opinion: I believe the price can reach new historical highs, as it is demonstrating with strong bullish pressure candles. At this moment, I think we are at a good support level located at the previous resistance of our entire bullish channel. I believe the price will re-enter the channel and resume the sequence it has been following within the overall bullish structure. This concludes my analysis of SPY for now. Let's see what the next few days bring as we continue monitoring the market. If you'd like to see this analysis in English, follow me on TradingView under the username: rockermike111. Wishing you an excellent 2025 filled with great news and continued growth in your market studies! May your learning progress year after year! Sending you a big hug and wishing you a Happy 2025! TRADE SAFE!
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 12-26-24 : Inside Breakaway PatternThis, being the day After Christmas, could be a very volatile trading day. I suggest traders sit back and let the morning volatility settle before attempting to make any big trades. I believe the markets will seek direction after Christmas and look to attempt to move into a Reversion phase (likely trending upward into the end of 2024). Overall, I believe the Anomaly event has completed - yet there is still risk for the markets to move lower before the end of Feb 2025. Follow my research and pay attention to how large the recent Daily price bars are compared to previous ranges. The current market volatility is MASSIVE. There is no reason skilled traders are not able to profit from some of these big price swings. Gold and Silver enter a CRUSH pattern. This could be a huge price move for Gold & Silver today. Bitcoin is sliding into the Consolidation Phase of an EPP pattern. This could result in another breakdown towards $72k if the EPP pattern plays out. Buckle up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY Technical Analysis for Tomorrow - Dec. 231. Key Levels * Resistance Levels: * $594.00: Immediate resistance level based on recent price action. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and critical test zone. * $608.50: Longer-term resistance from prior highs. * Support Levels: * $588.00: Current consolidation support zone. * $582.30: Intermediate support level based on prior rejections. * $577.74: Major structural low and critical support from the recent bounce. Observations and Price Action 1. Trend: * SPY bounced strongly from $577.74, creating a higher low, indicating short-term bullish momentum. * Price is consolidating under $594.00, which could act as a key pivot point for the next move. 2. Stochastic RSI: * The Stochastic RSI is entering overbought territory, suggesting potential slowing momentum or a pullback before another leg up. 3. Volume: * The recent move off $577.74 was accompanied by rising volume, signaling buying interest at key support. My Thoughts on SPY’s Direction * Bullish Bias: SPY is likely to retest $594.00 and potentially break higher toward $600.00 if buying momentum continues. * Bearish Risks: If $594.00 holds as resistance, a pullback to $588.00 or even $582.30 could occur. I lean slightly bullish, but a breakout above $594.00 is essential for further upside. Watch for rejection signals if SPY struggles to clear this level. Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario: * Entry: On a breakout above $594.00 with strong volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $600.00. * Extended: $608.50. * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to minimize risk. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: On rejection at $594.00 or breakdown below $588.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $582.30. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $595.00 for rejection trades or $589.50 for breakdown trades. Key Focus Areas * $594.00 Resistance: Watch for a breakout or rejection. * Volume Confirmation: Ensure volume aligns with the direction of the move. * Momentum Shift: Monitor the Stochastic RSI for signs of a reversal or continuation. Conclusion SPY is consolidating near a critical resistance level at $594.00. A breakout would open the door to $600.00, while rejection could lead to a pullback toward $588.00 or lower. The direction tomorrow will largely depend on how SPY reacts to the $594.00 level. ----------- Option Trading Scalping and Long/Short Strategy for SPY ------------ 1. Scalping Strategy for Options Key Observations from GEX Levels and Chart * Resistance Levels: * $593.00: Strong resistance, aligns with the 3rd Call Wall (53.16% GEX). * $598.00: Another key resistance from the 2nd Call Wall. * $600.00: Psychological resistance and CALL Resistance level (93.35%). * Support Levels: * $587.00: High Volume Level (HVL) and critical support zone. * $583.74: Highest negative gamma exposure (Put Support). * $577.74: Recent swing low and major structural support. * Options Oscillator Insight: * IV Rank is moderate (27.6%), indicating stable implied volatility. * Puts outweigh Calls (48.3%), showing slight bearish sentiment. Scalping Call Options (Bullish Setup): * Entry: If SPY breaks above $593.00 with volume confirmation. * Target: $598.00 (short-term target) and $600.00 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Below $592.00 to manage risk. Why It Works:
The breakout above $593.00 aligns with gamma-driven resistance at $598.00 and $600.00, signaling momentum to the upside. Scalping Put Options (Bearish Setup): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00. * Target: $583.74 (short-term target) and $577.74 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Above $593.50 for rejections or $588.00 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
Failure to hold $587.00 would push SPY toward negative gamma zones, with increased bearish pressure targeting the next support levels. 2. Long/Short Strategy Long Strategy (Bullish Case): * Entry: Above $593.00 with sustained price action and volume. * Targets: * Short-Term: $598.00. * Extended: $600.00. * Stop-Loss: Below $591.00 to minimize downside risk. Why It Works:
Breaking $593.00 indicates bullish momentum with gamma resistance weakening as the price moves higher. Short Strategy (Bearish Case): * Entry: On rejection at $593.00 or a confirmed breakdown below $587.00. * Targets: * Short-Term: $583.74. * Extended: $577.74. * Stop-Loss: Above $594.00 for rejection trades, or $588.50 for breakdown trades. Why It Works:
A failed breakout or breakdown aligns with bearish sentiment from the options flow, targeting downside gamma zones. 3. Additional Notes * Volume Confirmation: * Monitor volume spikes near $593.00 for breakouts or rejections. * Timeframe: * Use the 1-minute or 5-minute chart for scalping. * Strike Selection: * Focus on at-the-money (ATM) options with 7–14 DTE for scalping. Conclusion * Bullish Scenario: Breakout above $593.00 targets $598.00 and $600.00. * Bearish Scenario: Rejection at $593.00 or breakdown below $587.00 targets $583.74 and $577.74. Keep a close eye on price action, volume, and gamma levels to guide your entries and exits effectively. 🚀 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2
$SPY #RisingWedge #BreakDOWN #ReTest #RecessionI highlighted the potential topping formation that could for especially if we see a rejection around 598-601 on XMas EVE via #XMasAlert. This morning I am seeing signs of momentum wearing off PLUS what looks like a #BreakDOWN-ReTEST of a rising wedge look to the AMEX:SPY , check my TSLA to 420.69 Chart for conceptualization of this break out BELOW; In my post 2 days ago () I mentioned Strikes TBD. Well here are my favorites; SPY 560P 3.21 (Bigger Risk Reward) SPY 600P 3.21 (Essentially ATM Short w some Leverage) -Prophecies PS; 1) "I LOVE GOLD" - Fat BastarD 2) DONT OVER LOOK GOLD SAFETY HAVEN VIA CRYPTOCAP:BTC Headwinds? 3) And Don't Overlook NASDAQ:TSLA momentum... TO UPSIDE STILL (500Cs will be a play at somepoint this year #StayTuned)
AMEX:SPYShort
by Prophecies_R_Us
2
SPY - Red Alert Major Sell SignalStocks continue to rise in thin trading and some continue to expect higher highs. When looking at indices that are not top-loaded with the AI Tech Giants, they are clearly in decline. And now, my long-time, most favorite signal is starting to flash. The Failed Three Week test of the high. Should SPY close below 607.81 on Friday, This intermediate sell signal will kick in. On an Elliott Wave perspective, many have been calling tops for more than a year now yet the market continued to extend and extend and extend. And many expect the good times to keep rolling on as the incoming President views stock market prices as a reflection of his success. Yet one can't ignore rising interest rates, that will continue extending. As such, my two main trades for 2025 are rising rates and falling stocks. Happy New Year.
AMEX:SPYShort
by AssetDesign
$SPY December 26, 2024AMEX:SPY December 26, 2024 15 Minutes. I had expected 200 averages in 15 minutes to be resisted. It broke and held on to that for more than 2 hours on the 24th of December. For the rise 592.25 to 601.34 it is important to hold 597 levels for uptrend to continue. It is also 21 averages in 15 minutes. For the larger rise 580.91 to 601.34 holding 593-594 is crucial to hold. Above 603 I expect a 3 to 5 $ move which was resisted earlier before the fall. At the moment I will sell only below 588 for good 10$ move. 575-578 is a crucial number to hold on downside. In daily uptrend is intact.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RiderTrader
3
$SPY Trend Analysis DarkPoolsChart Overview: Instrument: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Timeframe: 4-hour chart Indicators on Chart: Moving Averages: Two moving averages, possibly the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, are visible and used for trend analysis. Dark Pool Levels: Represented by white dashed lines. Fibonacci Extensions: Horizontal levels plotted as profit targets. Trendlines: Yellow Lines: Represent a rising channel encompassing long-term price movement. Red and Green Lines: Form a triangle pattern suggesting potential price breakout. Volume Indicators: (Not directly visible, but implied in analysis as crucial.) Key Observations: Dark Pool Levels: A level around 605 (BA SW 605). Another level at 586.16 (BB SW 585). These levels often indicate significant institutional trading activity and are likely areas of support/resistance. Triangle Breakout: Price has broken out of a triangle pattern (green and red lines), indicating bullish momentum. The breakout occurred after a strong push above the 597.12 - 596.11 zone, confirmed by the candle close. Trend: The price is trading above both EMAs, which signals bullish momentum. The broader channel suggests an upward trend with potential consolidation at the top. Targets: Fibonacci-based profit targets are clearly defined at: 607.50 610.00 612.50 615.00 The first target (607.50) aligns with a critical resistance zone, suggesting potential short-term profit-taking. Support Zones: The previous triangle breakout zone (around 596.11) serves as a strong support. The lower dark pool level (586.16) provides additional safety if the price retraces significantly. Trade Idea: Entry: If not already entered, consider a pullback entry near the 597-596 range, which aligns with the EMAs and breakout level. Profit Targets: 607.50: Partial profit-taking area; first resistance. 610.00: Secondary target if bullish momentum sustains. 612.50: High-probability target if momentum accelerates. 615.00: Final target aligning with the Fibonacci extension. Stop Loss: Close below 596: Invalidates the bullish triangle breakout. Final Stop: Close below 586.16 (dark pool support), marking a shift to bearish momentum. Risk Management: Position size based on risk tolerance. Risk-to-reward ratio should ideally exceed 1:3, considering a stop at 596 and initial target at 607.50. Additional Notes: Volume Confirmation: Ensure the breakout is supported by a volume surge to validate institutional involvement. Dark Pool Activity: Watch for price action near 605 (BA SW) as it could act as temporary resistance.
AMEX:SPY
by thedarkpooltrader