SPY: Swing Trading & Technical Analysis
Balance of buyers and sellers on the SPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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SPY trade ideas
SPY JUNSPY – June Update
SPY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, with bullish momentum intact.
Price is currently approaching a major resistance at 608, while holding above the key support at 590.
Immediate upside target: 608, followed by potential extension toward the gap fill near 611.
If price fails to hold above 590, downside pressure could lead to a retest of the gaps at 550 and 530, which act as major support zones.
As long as SPY remains above the channel midpoint and above EMA20 (585.77), the bullish structure remains valid.
#SPY #SP500 #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #OptionsFlow #Momentum #Support #Resistance
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Update on the markets and what may come in June/JulySPY reached 90% of the down move from the top today, and that could be significant if we completed a larger B wave. Gold lost it's balance and probably goes lower. Oil is breaking up, as of now looks bullish. BTC had a nice pump but I think it will go lower.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-6 : Inside-Breakaway Counter-TrendToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt a Counter-trend type of Inside Breakaway pattern.
I read this as a downward price trend (counter to the current upward price trend).
The markets seem to have bounced overnight - prompting a potentially strong opening price level.
If my Inside-Breakaway shows up today, things could get very interesting if a breakdown in price sets up.
Many of you know I've been expecting a broader market breakdown to take place - sending the SPY/QQQ down about 7% to 13% or more.
It hasn't happened yet and the SPY/QQQ continue to try to push a bit higher - but, until we break to new highs, the breakdown event is still possible.
Let's see how things play out today. Platinum is showing that the global markets are entering an extreme speculative phase (very similar to 2000-2008). Transports are stalling, showing the US economy is expected to weaken over the next 3+ months.
Imagine that. Speculation is ramping up while the US market may move into a recession in H2:2025. Wow.
We certainly live in interesting times.
Get some.
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SPY - 1 Hour ShortSPY – 1H Technical Breakdown (Short Bias)
Price action on SPY has recently traded into a clearly defined higher-timeframe supply zone, where prior bearish order flow originated. The current structure shows signs of exhaustion after a liquidity sweep above recent swing highs, which likely triggered breakout entries and stop-loss clusters — a common precursor to reversal.
We’ve observed a loss of momentum as price consolidates beneath this supply zone, signaling inefficient buying and a potential shift in control from buyers to sellers. The rejection from this zone aligns precisely with the projected schematic path, reinforcing the short bias and supporting the hypothesis of a distribution phase.
The anticipated move targets the mid-550s, a region marked by prior accumulation and unmitigated demand, making it a logical zone for price to seek out resting liquidity.
🔹 Key Technical Confluences:
Entry from a confirmed supply zone
Sweep of prior high followed by internal weakness
Structure showing early lower highs and compression beneath resistance
Market currently following the projected schematic path outlined in advance
🛡️ Risk Parameters:
Stop-loss is placed conservatively above the supply zone highs to account for further probing
Take-profit aligned with prior demand and structural inefficiencies
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Estimated 3:1+, offering a highly asymmetric return profile
This is a tactically planned short with strong technical backing. As long as price respects current structure, we maintain bearish conviction until the 555–560 zone is tested or invalidation occurs above the supply.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 10, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📱 Apple Disappoints at WWDC Keynote
Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) faced criticism after a lackluster WWDC keynote. Major AI and Siri upgrades were delayed, prompting a 1–1.5% drop in Apple shares—the weakest move during today's presentation
🎮 GameStop to Report Q1, Crypto Pivot in Focus
GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings after market close. Investors will be watching for updates on its $500M Bitcoin allocation and potential crypto-related strategies
📈 Small-Business Optimism Rises
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May came in at 95.9—above the 94.9 consensus—showing modest improvement in sentiment among small firms
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 10:
6:00 AM ET – NFIB Small Business Optimism (May):
A reading above expectations could boost risk market sentiment by showing stronger Main Street confidence.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚨 Israel Strikes Iran — U.S. Markets Sell Off
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets. U.S. stock futures slid over 1%, driven by a drop in equities and a surge in safe-haven assets
🛢️ Oil Prices Surge 7–8% on Supply Fears
Brent crude jumped over 7%, reaching ~$74.65/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 8%—the strongest move since early May. The sudden energy-price spike reflects heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East
💱 Dollar & Safe Havens Climb
True to form, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and Treasuries rallied as investors moved to the safety of low-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 13
(No scheduled U.S. economic data)
Data flow will take a backseat as markets digest geopolitical developments and await the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #geopolitics #oil #safety #charting #technicalanalysis
Spy Prediction Potential breakout of bull flag if it bounces back after retest of 200 SMA. Could see an attempt for new ath.
Spy needs to reach 602.23 and hold that floor before the breakout. Watch for volume spike and close above 603. Watch for confirmation on the breakout.
Potential entries based on risk - 603.61 & 602.95
If volume or momentum declines, we could see a potential breakdown back towards 598.
Watch out for fakeouts.
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline.
If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone.
SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to:
-USA domestic conflict
-International military conflicts
-Technical chart bearish divergence
-USA federal reserve interest rate news
-Government and corporate news
Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580.
Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615.
The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
SPY in Wave 5This week I am expecting a final rally to 608 to finish wave 5. SPY broke above 595.50 resistance today, but with RSI at incredibly high levels on the 1HR chart I am anticipating a minor pullback tomorrow and the final push up to occur Thursday and Friday. Jobless claims are released Thursday and unemployment rate released on Friday. These are the two major data points coming out this week that will likely drive the market upward to finish this final wave up. For the remainder of the month, I am looking for major selling to begin and will likely lead us down to the 530 gap fill.
Cheers
Spy Road To $600 🔥 SPY Price Thesis – Breakout or Breakdown Setup
SPY is setting up for a potential breakout above the $595 extension level, with upside to $602–$608. However, $582 remains a key support. A break below $582 could trigger a momentum flush to $567.
Level
🔵 $595.60 – Fib Extension (161.8%) from the March → April swing High-probability breakout trigger
🟢 $602.40 – $608.20 – Fib 200% and exhaustion zone from the same swing Final extension if bullish momentum sustains
🟡 $582.00 – Institutional VWAP reaccumulation zone Strong demand/support
🔴 $567.40 – Prior weekly pivot low + anchored VWAP bounce level Breakdown target if $582 fails
Trend Signal: Bullish bias confirmed — Higher Highs + EMA Cloud still pointing up
Momentum: MACD Histogram turning back up, crossover brewing
Volume: Above average on green days; no true distribution yet
Supertrend Zone: Still green on 4H and 1D
Custom Signal Confluence Score: > 75% (Strong Buy Zone aligning above $588)
🔁 Fibonacci Analysis
Measured from April swing low (~$505) to May high (~$573):
🔹 161.8% = $595.60
🔹 200% = $602.40
🔹 261.8% = $608.20 (max extension target)
📉 On Breakdown:
From $573 high to $558 retracement low:
0.618 retrace = $582.00 ← Current support zone
Full retrace & bear trap zone = $567.40
Smart Money Strategy:
Above $595: Long breakout entries (Calls, zero DTE)
Below $582: Hedge with Puts or inverse ETF
Key Catalyst Triggers: Jobs data, CPI, or Fed commentary could force the move
As Always Safe Trades and JoeWtrades
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-5 : Inside BreakawayToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is an Inside Breakaway pattern - which indicates the markets want to try to break away from the sideways range I've been sharing with you.
Gold and Silver are making a very big move higher this morning - which may be indicative of some crisis or military conflict move throughout the world.
I see this move in Metals as a bit of a warning to the global markets. Metals hedge global risk levels. A rise in metals suggests traders fear some crisis event and are banking on Silver/Gold as an efficient hedge.
BTCUSD is still trading within the sideways channel as well. I see BTCUSD less as a hedge and more as a technology/Block-chain asset. No matter how you slice it, BTCUSD is not really an alternate currency, it is a Technology asset.
We could see some big moves over the next 2-5+ days because of how the markets are setting up and how Gold/Silver are reacting.
Buckle Up.
Get Some.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 6, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 U.S. Labor Market in Focus
Investors are closely watching the upcoming May employment report, which is expected to show a gain of 125,000 jobs, down from 177,000 in April. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.2%. These figures will provide insights into the labor market's response to recent economic pressures, including tariff impacts .
🇮🇳 RBI Expected to Cut Rates Amid Low Inflation
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate on June 6, marking the third consecutive reduction. This move aims to support economic growth amid persistent low inflation and global uncertainties .
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 6:
8:30 AM ET – U.S. Employment Report (May):
Analysts expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 125,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. These figures will be critical in assessing the health of the labor market and potential Federal Reserve policy actions .
3:00 PM ET – U.S. Consumer Credit (April):
The Federal Reserve will release data on consumer credit, with forecasts predicting an increase of $10 billion. This report will shed light on consumer borrowing trends and financial health .
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY 1HR Pullback to Volume Buy Zone Before Bullish ContinuationI’m watching the 588.52–589.94 range as a high-probability buy zone on the SPY 1-hour chart. This zone aligns with a strong volume shelf, indicating prior institutional accumulation and heavy transaction flow.
After a sharp move into the 591s, we’re seeing some hesitation and potential for a healthy pullback. The plan is to wait for price action to return to the buy zone, show signs of strength (e.g., hammer candle, strong bounce), and look for a continuation toward the previous high of 593.46 and possibly higher.
🔹 Buy Zone: 588.52–589.94
🔹 Volume Profile Support: High node at ~589
🔹 Resistance: 591.12 short-term, then 593.46
🔹 Stop Loss: Below 586.76 to avoid false breakouts
🔹 Target: 593.50+ with higher timeframe continuation in mind