$SPY Big Support at 540 and 50% fib levelAMEX:SPY Big Support at 540 and 50% fib level, I thinks it's unlikely to break the $540 mark.
SPY trade ideas
SP500 - Shiller PE RatioSPY
Looking back we can see where the Shiller PE ratio values provided an insight into buying into the SP500
We have altered courses from the High Interest rates of 1988 - the lows of 2020
I believe we are in a new Inflation cycle. This could result in rising rates over next 20 years.
It makes for a harder decision for buying the market.
If they are not going to truly rally @ 31.31 then will they at 27.08 or lower?
Will the market beat inflation?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher in early trading - trying to identify a resistance area. Then, roll over into a downward price trend.
Be cautious of the overnight price range, potentially already setting the upper boundary of the TOP pattern for today. It can happen that overnight trading sets a PEAK/TOP, and we move into sideways/downward trading related to the current TOP/Resistance pattern.
I believe the US markets will attempt to move upward, toward the $490-500+ level before topping out today. I believe this move will be related to the strong support near the $480 level and will attempt to further establish the downward price channel established by the big breakdown in trend over the past 9+ days.
Ultimately, I believe price is struggling for direction, but I also believe this process (with tariffs) is working out as expected.
This is obviously a very volatile market - so stay cautious as we move into a more consolidated price trend over the next few weeks.
I don't expect the markets to try to make any really big moves over the next 2+ week (unless news hits). At this point, I believe the markets will try to UNWIND the volatility over the next 2+ weeks.
BTCUSD is trading near the lower range of the consolidation phase. This could be the start of the breakdown to the Ultimate Low.
GOLD and Silver are moving higher after forming the base (just as I expected). Metals will likely rally strongly as global fear elevates.
Thank you for all the great comments. I'll try to publish a few new videos today and tomorrow to help everyone out.
Remember, price gives us new information every minute/bar. It is a matter of unraveling the puzzle with price - one bar at a time.
If you like what I do, follow along.
Get some.
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SPY is close to a bottom? More Downside ahead? (April 3, 2025)In this video, AMEX:SPY is showing early signs of being oversold on the weekly chart, but the pullback may not be over for another 150 days. So Let's talk about it and see what to expect next for SPY going forward!!
Warning Relief Rally Maybe DelayedLooking how closed tonight on that support
does not bond well for me
So if we break that low I am out long and will short SPY
Add IWM MAGS short they make new lows
Add TZA new high. Guys it breaks we will just drop few days 450 lower
We hold that good also banks Friday earnings can be a NASTY day tomorrow rest week
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-31 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to carryover Friday's selling trend.
I do believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find some support as we move into a Temp Bottom pattern tomorrow. So be aware that the SPY/QQQ may attempt to find support near 535-540/450-455 over the next few days.
I would also urge traders to not get very aggressive in terms of trying to pick a bottom in this downtrend.
In my opinion, I don't see any reason why anyone should be buying into this breakdown unless you are prepared to take a few big lumps. Just wait it out - wait for a base/bottom to setup.
Gold and Silver are moving higher and I believe this trend will continue for many weeks/months.
BTCUSD should continue to move downward - trying to establish the Consolidation Phase range.
As we move into trading this week. Be aware that Tuesday/Wednesday of this week are more ROTATION type days. They may be wide-range days - but they are still going to be ROTATIONAL.
Get some.
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Using The CRADLE Pattern To Time/Execute TradesThis simple video highlights one of my newest pattern definitions - the Cradle Pattern.
In addition to the many other patterns my technology identified, this Cradle Pattern seems to be a constant type of price construct.
I'm sharing it with all of you so you can learn how to identify it and use it for your trading.
Ideally, this pattern represents FLAGGING after a trend phase.
It is a consolidation of price within a flag after a broad trending phase.
It usually resolves in the direction of the major trend, but can present a very solid reversal trigger if the upper/lower pullback range is broken (see the examples in this video).
Learn it. Use it.
Price is the ultimate indicator.
Learn to read price data more efficiently to become a better trader.
Get some.
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$SPY the final leg down? Bottom between $400 - $441It's looking like we're going to break the low I originally had at $481 from the top at $612.
The next most likely target is $441, and if we break that $414.
Both of those levels are good long term buys, the move should happen this week (and likely tomorrow) and that should mark the bottom for the market.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Market Cycle Analysis – Correction coming ?This chart presents a macro view of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a bi-weekly timeframe, highlighting key market cycle corrections and potential upcoming trends.
Key Observations:
🔴 Trendline Support: The price action has consistently respected a long-term ascending trendline, with previous corrections bouncing off similar levels.
📉 Historical Market Corrections: Red vertical lines mark significant past corrections (Feb 2020, Dec 2021), aligning with dips in the lower indicator, suggesting cyclical downturns.
📊 Momentum Indicator (Lower Panel): Past dips in this momentum indicator (highlighted with red arrows) coincided with major corrections in the SPY chart. The recent downward trend raises concerns about another potential market pullback.
🔮 Future Projection (March 2025?): Based on previous cycles, the next major correction could occur around March 2025, aligning with potential trendline retests. If history repeats, we may see a pullback before resuming the uptrend.
Key Questions for Traders & Investors:
✅ Will SPY respect the trendline and recover, or are we heading for a deeper correction?
✅ Does the current market structure resemble past cycle downturns?
✅ How will macroeconomic conditions influence SPY’s next move?
Let me know your thoughts! Are you preparing for a correction, or do you see more upside potential? 🚀📉
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly!
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising.
Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday.
The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020.
📌 High IV = High Theta
When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them.
Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first:
It’s definitely not a cheerful chart!
* Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445.
* HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip.
* Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now.
I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure.
🤔 What Can We Do?
Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit.
Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on.
Buying Put Options …. no way?
First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases.
Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio.
🐂 If You’re Bullish
This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound.
- Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV.
- Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money.
Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail
If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days).
If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further).
Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread
In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on.
🐻 If You’re Bearish
I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward).
⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish
If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed.
Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive!
Conclusion
The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
Yesterday's SPY shorts - Analysis on entries and algorithmsThis is more of a review of how I utilized the algorithms and HTF intention targets to place strategic option trades yesterday on the SPY LTF (and middle time frame as I left some runners overnight.)
Happy Trading :)
$SPY Possible simulation with COVID, Bottom at 495 then ATH 630Lowest RSI since COVID , highest daily volume for years! but if copy the wave of COVID drop we can see some similarities. bottom by 2nd week April at 495 then consolidation at 530 then up and fighting zone between 550-560 then up and small top on June/July then All time high in Sep at 630. the idea, take long dated strangles options
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-2 : GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests price may attempt to move downward in early trading, trying to find support near recent lows, then potentially roll a bit higher.
I do expect price to move into a downward price trend - attempting to break below the 549 price level and targeting the 535-545 target Fib level this week.
Today, Thursday, and Friday are all GAP/Breakaway types of patterns. So we should be entering an expansion of price trend and I believe that trend will be to the downside.
Gold and Silver are nearing a Flag Apex level. Very exciting for a potential breakout rally driving Gold up above $3250 and Silver up above $36.
I personally believe there is nothing stopping Gold and Silver in this rally phase until Gold reaches levels above $4500. GET SOME.
BTCUSD had a very interesting spike low. I still believe BTCUSD will roll downward - targeting the $76-78k level, then break downward towards the $60k level. Time will tell.
The rest of this week should be very exciting with the Breakaway and GAP patterns.
Get some.
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SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 7 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
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My group in my signature, get these first, then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't.
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91.
Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
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Trade with me! Walkthrough as I short SPY on a 1 min chartThis is a long video and unfortunately we got cut off at the 1 HR mark right before the ensuing dump toward our TP level (currently 5 minutes after the video up 30% on the position).
Recommend watching on 2x, 3x, 4x speed if you want but also a lot of insights as to what I'm looking out for through my typing. I would have liked to do this with a mic but I'm in a loud environment and wanted to get this out to you.
Hope you enjoy and aren't bored (which sometimes, trading is just boring!)
Happy Trading :)
SPY LongNo need to discuss fundamentals here since it is THE SPY.
Very good entry for beginners or swing traders.
clean reversal patter.
You can keep SL a bit lower if you have appetite
Bear Flags on Multiple Timeframes (Look out below!)Showing bear flags on multiple timeframes -- the technical setup is a popular one for a reason--it often does as you would expect.
SPY Price Projection: Mid-2025 TargetRevealing Market Trends: Logarithmic Regression Analysis Indicates Bullish Path for SPY
In the ever-evolving realm of financial analysis, the search for reliable predictions remains ongoing. Logarithmic scale regression analysis, coupled with potent indicators, has emerged as a promising tool for discerning trends, particularly regarding assets like the SPY.
This analysis delves into the utilization of logarithmic scale regression alongside two robust indicators, offering insights into the potential trajectory of the SPY's price movement. It's essential to note that the interpretations and predictions presented are based on my analysis alone and should not be construed as financial advice. As with any market analysis, uncertainties persist, and actual outcomes may diverge from projections.
Logarithmic scale regression accounts for the exponential nature of price movements, providing a nuanced perspective on long-term trends. When combined with indicators such as moving averages or momentum oscillators, the analysis gains depth, revealing not only the direction but also the strength of the trend.
After meticulous examination of historical data and the application of analytical tools, our analysis suggests a bullish trajectory for the SPY, with a projected price nearing 620 EUR by mid-2025. This projection implies a significant uptrend from the current date, with a potential increase of approximately 20% over the specified timeframe.
However, it's crucial to approach such forecasts with caution, recognizing the inherent risks associated with financial markets. While our analysis indicates a positive outlook, market conditions can change rapidly, leading to deviations from expected trends.
In summary, logarithmic scale regression analysis, supported by robust indicators, offers valuable insights into market trends and potential price movements. While our analysis suggests a bullish sentiment for the SPY, investors should conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is based on personal interpretation and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in financial markets carries risks, and actual outcomes may differ. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
$SPY April 2, 2025AMEX:SPY April 2, 2025
15 Minutes
Downtrend intact as long below 200 in 15 minutes for the day.
For the fall 570.02 to 546.87 AMEX:SPY has retraced to 61.8 level around 561.
For the rise 546.87 to 560.69 holding 552-553 is important.
For the day consider the last rise from 552.73 to 560.69.
Holding 555-556 we can expect 561-563 as target for the day. It should be resisted around 564-565 being 200 averages in 15 minutes.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 3 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning.
My group in my signature, get these first, then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't.
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91.
Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 9 2025The key support and resistance levels for SPY today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning.
My group in my signature, get these first, then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't.
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91.
Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this
