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SPY trade ideas

SpyApril seasonality finally showed its self this past week.. You can always tell when seasonality takes over because of the volume and the fact that news doesn't matter anymore. Example - March, Sept and sometimes May are bearish seasonality.. In these months you'll notice that no matter how good the news or earnings stock still stumble... Nov, Dec, April are bullish and most of the time no matter the bad news things just pump or get bought up for no reason. I think spy goes for 565.00 this week, which is only another 3% higher. To put this in perspective, Spy was 536 on 4/23 and melted up 3% in two days on no volume .. At 565 I think there will be a very nice short opportunity where I think spy will pull back to to 540-545.. I wouldn't short this before 565, and this only becomes bearish again if spy closes next week below 535.00! Now here's the chart TVC:DJI Very low key late this week.. contrary to qqq the dji has not broken above its trend line resistance but I think that will happen this week and it most likely will off set any draw done from big tech.. imagine a day where dow jones is up 400pts and nasdaq down 150pts; this price action would lead spy to chop in the middle FAWKERY. The upside target here is APRIL 2ND gap close NASDAQ:QQQ Yellow trendline is breakout White trendline is April 2nd gap close Red line is - 20sma So like I said above, qqq is leading the way up to April 2nd gap close. This gap close at 476 is about 5% aways from the 20sma.. I think once qqq tags 476 it will begin a pullback to 465-468.. during this pullback you will see them pump the dow. As long as 465 holds then 488 is next or weekly 50ma. If we lose 465 then a full 20ma retest is incoming.. To keep it simple, long qqq early to 476 then wait for a pullback or short it back down to 465-468.. if those areas hold then switch back long and ride it up to 480+ Vix Minor falling wedge showing at gap support 24.80 .. if this pattern plays out thin Vix could pop back up to 31 or 20sma which could see markets start the week in the red but unless vix can reclaim 32.00 then this is just a dead cat bounce that will give you a good entry to long equities I won't go into the tech Sectors but the overall picture I think is a melt up to the WEEKLY 50MA on Sectors and indexes I still can't see this market overall making significant ground to ATH.. the leading INDEX TVC:NYA is showing a Decade long Rising wedge which is the biggest I've ever seen. Since 2010 this resistance has not broken and If spy pushes back up near 600 then NYA will tag this again which means we are headed back down before the summer is out. Once this rising wedge is broken will make new lows and break below 400 In closing... Spy supports are 547 (Price action) 543 ( 1hour 200ma) 537( 20ma daily) I don't think spy will lose 543 before 555 comes... once you see NASDAQ:QQQ tag 476 be weary of being long, wait for the pullback then long NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY to their weekly 50ma Opinion Job numbers are released this week Friday which is the beginning of "SELL in MAY " seasonality. All of the fed speakers have said that if jobs come in strong than they won't vote for a cut. Feds don't cut on May7th and Trump throws a tantrum and market sells again.. This scenario is the reason I think the market will maximize these big tech earnings to get the upside move out of the way before early may. Also next month the economic data (Ppi,cpi,pce,pmi) will give the first glimpse of what damage the tariff are doing / will do. So buckle up come May
AMEX:SPYLong
by ContraryTrader
23
SP500 ETF: Fibonacci MappingAs you may know, Williams Fractals indicator identifies potential reversal points by marking a high (or low) surrounded by two lower highs (or higher lows) on each side, forming a five-bar pattern that signals possible turning points in price. Unfortunately, the simplicity of such indicator provides just tiny perspective, undermining broad implication of the concept. Before I begin diving into processing geometric narrative of emerging price via fibonacci channels, I want to explain how I interpret fractals. When I use the term "fractal", I'm not just talking about the points alone. Market continuously corrects itself, so analyzing it by price alone can bring more confusion than help. The object of observation shouldn't be limited to quantifying just by a single property. Chaos by default requires awareness from both price and time aspects. The easiest way to root it in my vision was through realization that price is a function of trading time intervals. Its activity can be described as cyclical progression, as if it is wired by multiple "springs" of different tensions. Classic TA patterns known to literally anyone are great for anticipating a move in surface level forecasts. Since my line of work focuses on prediction over forecasts, it requires deeper structural awareness behind complex oscillations. Let's observe the way selloff scales from ATH and how it impacts fractal hierarchy. The first corrective bullish wave can be explained as a reaction to initial impulsive bearish wave. The bigger scale drop from ATH to a lower point explains why the corrective bullish wave looks the way it is. And so on: In fractals, scaling laws describe how key properties change with size, typically following power-law relationships that reflect the structure’s self-similarity, where a characteristic scales with the size raised to an exponent. To build a probabilistic model, we must keep in mind how the smaller bits make up bigger scale picture. ATH, established bottom and angle of progression defined by pullback highs, all those points have structural weight. Since psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it's fair to use Fibonacci Channels to map the geometry of interconnectedness. Similarly, all of those points can be referred by another fibonacci channel with opposite direction. From my perspective, traditional TA patterns reflect just phases of cycle, this is why I unify those fragments into broader scalable shapes. This distinctive branch of Fractal Analysis allows to track systematic aspects of market behavior and explains how a pattern replicates itself in rhythmic continuity.
AMEX:SPY
by fract
SPY Eyeing Breakout — Trump Buzz & Options Walls Fuel Fire I'm breaking down SPY here the way I process it while flipping between daily and 1-hour charts. Daily Timeframe:
The price action is flirting right at the top of this falling wedge pattern. What catches my attention is the strength in MACD and Stoch RSI—they're both pushing hard to the upside. This isn't a weak bounce. Momentum looks real, and we're sitting just under the 555–560 resistance range, which also happens to line up with a key structure break. If we can close above this upper wedge line, bulls might get the weekly breakout confirmation. 1-Hour Chart + GEX:
Now on the hourly, SPY already broke through the 550 level and hovered at 559 into the close. There’s some strong intraday buying volume confirming that breakout. But what's even more important to me is what GEX is showing—there’s a massive cluster of call walls stacked at 555 and 560. Today, the gamma flipped from neutral to green, and GEX data confirmed there's strong call exposure at 560. Meanwhile, the highest negative NETGEX put support sits deep at 545. This creates a strong upward magnet as long as we stay above 547. Also, there’s buzz from today’s Trump investor roundtable. Headlines from that are already driving bullish sentiment, especially with tech and AI names in the mix. That political tailwind could be the final push that launches SPY through the wedge ceiling. My Trade Plan: * If price holds above 552, I’m watching 560+ as the upside magnet. * Break and retest 555, I’ll consider a long scalp or debit spread targeting 560–563. * If 547 breaks, that would be a red flag—puts might activate again and drag us toward 540. Option Bias:
With IV low and GEX sentiment flipping bullish, I prefer buying calls or verticals over selling premium. But the 560 call wall is heavy, so I’m not chasing—wait for confirmation. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Elliott Wave top on SPY’s monthly chartTechnical Analysis: Wave Structure (Elliott Wave) • Wave 1–2: Early 2020 correction (COVID crash) marked a clear wave 2 bottom. • Wave 3: Strong impulsive rally from mid-2020 to late 2021 — massive liquidity-driven. • Wave 4: 2022–2023 pullback — clean retracement to ~0.382 Fib, validating wave structure. • Wave 5: Parabolic final rally peaking around $550–560 (currently topping or topping out). Bearish Signals: • Volume divergence — Price up, but monthly volume flat-to-declining. Distribution behavior. • Completed 5-wave structure — Indicates exhaustion. • (A)-(B)-(C) Correction Starting: The projection shows: • Wave A targeting ~$420–440. • Wave B dead cat bounce. • Wave C projecting a deeper correction into $300–340 zone (around 0.5 to 0.618 retracement). Fibonacci Confluence Zones: • 0.382 = ~$450 • 0.5 = ~$390 • 0.618 = ~$340 These zones will act as major liquidity pools for institutional entries or macro rebalancing. Macro Headwinds Fuel the Narrative: • Sticky inflation • Rising interest payments on U.S. debt • Deteriorating liquidity (QT regime) • Over-leveraged consumer and commercial debt sectors
AMEX:SPYShort
by graphsandcoffee
$SPY Short Swing, vwap+supply+resistanceBackground. Easy confluence trade. We had the largest and fastest rally in stock history from 2022 to now. Everyone who loaded up at $380-430 is ready to take some profits. After the tariff announcements, we sold off hard through a bunch of levels and trendlines down to the bottom of the longer term uptrend. Current situation. We have retraced back up to the first major supply area, where everyone who bought the dip back in march went long. They've been underwater and are ready to sell for scratch. This will drive the price back down. Maybe the end of a long term uptrend. Maybe just leg 2 of the tariff drop, back down to the trendline. I can't know that. Delta. If you look at the volume footprint chart, there has been a huge negative delta this whole rally. Prices are going up but the larger players are selling into it. Essentially, the last 2 weeks have been driven up by main street, while wall street unloads. Once there are enough bagholders, the floor can fall out. Here's the weekly delta. Trading Approach. This is a good point to initiate the start of a long term short position. Like, buying puts 1-2 years out with a $450 target, a gap that's never been filled. I think it's also a good swing entry but with closer targets. On the more pessimistic attitude, after the tariffs, the world started the process of dethroning America as leader of the free world. There's a lot of gravity pulling down to $250 and if the world fully turns on the US, that's where we're heading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by OverexposedPhotoOfADress
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 5 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 5th, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below. Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these. White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them. Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 2 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 2nd, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below. Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these. White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them. Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
SPY - support & resistant areas for today May 1 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, May 1st, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below. Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these. White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them. Silver Lines: An Area where price action could happen and do work on a choppy day.
AMEX:SPY
by OnePunchMan91
Will History Repeat Itself? $580 Target For SPY By Early MayThe market has been in the doldrums since finding support after a nasty wave of selling that caused AMEX:SPY to decline by an additional 15% in a matter of days. Since we’ve been chopping around in this $65 range, we have seen some sharp swings both ways, but little sense of direction. i think that is about to change soon. Using the time around the Death Cross (When the daily 50MA crosses below the 200MA) of 2022 as a frame of reference, and taking recent PA into account using Elliott Wave, I think it is clear a bear market rally is already underway. Starting with 2022, the price fell in three distinct waves before making a significant retracement. The day after the 50MA crossed below the 200MA, the price found a temporary bottom before chopping around for 13 sessions. Volume was on a steady decline before the price made a higher low and retraced nearly 75% of Wave (A) over the course of another 13 sessions (13 is a fibonacci number btw). The price briefly spiked above all of the moving averages (50/100/200) before getting sold off again in the strongest wave of the bear market of that year. Now looking at the daily chart for this year, the setup is a little bit different but there are still similarities. For starters, the 50MA crossed below the 200MA a few days after the market found a temporary bottom at $482. What I’m counting as Wave A of (B) lasted for five sessions (another Fibonacci number). Wave B of (B) was actually four sessions but I decided to compare the volume of both movements using the same chunk of time. As you can see, there was nearly double the volume in Wave A vs Wave B, signaling that bulls are in control (for now). Volume in Wave A was comparatively higher on average than the entire downtrend, which is also worthy of note. Since we are now in Wave C of (B) and the 100MA is converging with the 200MA, we should see the squeeze here. A similar retracement to complete Wave (B), when comparing to 2022, would suggest AMEX:SPY will spike above $580 rather quickly before the next sell off. If Wave C were to unfold in a more conservative eight sessions (the next biggest fib number) we should see Wave (B) end around Thursday May 1st. It could take a little bit longer since the next FOMC is May 6-7, which could be an event that will cause the market to change directions. Lastly, for a closer look, this is how I am counting the sub-waves on the 500R ($5) chart. Wave B was a classic Regular Flat pattern that saw wave (c) find support slightly past 100% of wave (a) at roughly $509. The price quickly found support (much faster than I would have expected) without filling the gap and ripped higher. We’ve also seen the price hover around monthly VWAP for a while, which indicates somewhat of an agreement on price despite the wild swings. The price gapped up over 2% on Wednesday before seeing some selling in the afternoon. We could either close this gap on Thursday or continue higher to close the upper gap at $560 and beyond. Volume increased from wave (b)-(c), and has remained higher - which I think is accumulation. Using intraday ratios, Wave C of (B) could extend as high as the 1.618 extension at $587. Actually, one last thing. TVC:VIX price action also supports my thesis. Even through the PA on AMEX:SPY was relatively neutral on Wednesday after the gap up, VIX still importantly dropped below support and is now below the 0.618 retracement. I think it will return to the 200MA for support, which usually hovers around $20. Fib circles added just because they’re kind of interesting to me when analyzing VIX. If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading and good luck. As always - use your best judgement and be ready to react to anything that happens in the market.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ap769
32
SPY Holding the Channel – Can It Bounce or Fade Today?Market Summary SPY is currently trading around $563, showing early weakness after stalling below key resistance at 566–567 last week. Futures were flat overnight with mixed macro sentiment and low volatility. We're starting today near the lower trendline of the rising channel visible on the 15-minute chart. Technical Structure * Trend: Price is still holding the lower boundary of the upward channel from May 1–2. * Support: ORL at 564.29 and lower trendline ~563.20–563.40. * Resistance: ORH at 565.47, PMH at 565.95, and GEX resistance at 567. * Indicators: * MACD: Flattening with bearish cross on shorter timeframes. * Stoch RSI: Reset to lower range, watching for potential curl up. Options & Gamma Insight (GEX) * Current Price: $563 * PUT Pressure Dominant: GEX sentiment is 🔴🔴🔴 Bearish, with: * PUT$ flow = 115.6% (significantly overweighted) * IVR 26.1, IVx avg 20.4 = Still room to expand in volatility. * Key Gamma Levels: * Resistance Walls: * 567 → 2nd CALL Wall (major resistance) * 568–570 → CALL resistance zone * Support Zones: * 562–561 → Heavy GEX support * 560 → Highest negative net GEX = strong PUT wall Potential Scenarios for Today 🟢 Bullish Case: * Price reclaims ORH 565.47 and breaks above 566, triggering momentum to test 567. * If momentum continues, squeeze toward 568 or even 570 is possible, but less likely unless volume spikes. 🔴 Bearish Case: * Break below 562.68 Ask, triggering fast move to 561.70 and possibly flush into 560 PUT wall. * Below 560 opens the door to 557 or even 554–555 if panic selling or negative macro. Actionable Levels * Long above: 565.50 with target 566.80–567 | Stop < 563.80 * Short below: 562.80 with target 561 → 560 zone | Stop > 564.50 * Scalp Range Zone: Between 563.50–565.50 = chop risk Final Take SPY is pinned between heavy PUT support at 560 and CALL resistance at 567. With PUTs outweighing CALLs, a flush toward 561–560 could be favored unless bulls reclaim 566+. Watch for sharp directional trigger around 10:00–10:30 AM ET. 📌 This preview is for educational purposes only. Always use proper risk management and confirm with your own system before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Levels Heating Up! Is This Just a Cool-Off or a Pullback?🧊So here’s what I’m seeing on SPY after reviewing the daily, 1H, and options GEX flow. I like to keep it real — not overhyped, just what I think might actually matter if you're trading this week. 📉 Technical Setup (Daily & 1H View) * We’ve been in this steady grind higher, breaking out of the downward channel. * Price is stalling a bit near 558–563 zone — that’s a tough area, and it makes sense since it lines up with prior resistance. * MACD on the daily is still bullish but starting to flatten, and the Stoch RSI looks like it wants to cool off from overbought. * On the hourly, momentum is clearly slowing down — we’re seeing lower highs and weakening MACD. If 558 breaks, I’d expect some quick downside. 🧠 GEX (Gamma Exposure) Breakdown * The Highest Negative GEX is parked at 560, which is huge. That’s where market makers flip from hedging to hunting. * There’s a fat PUT wall at 560, and we’ve been dancing around it. So if bulls can’t hold this line, things could unwind fast. * On the upside, CALL resistance is stacked at 562–563, and we just tapped into it. * IV is sitting at 30.6 with IVx avg 25 → market’s a bit juiced, probably pricing in some chop or catalyst ahead. 🎯 Trade Scenarios I’m Watching 🐻 Bearish Setup (if price rejects 563 again): * Entry: 561–562 rejection * Target: 555–556 zone * Stop: Close above 563.50 * This plays off the GEX flip and rejection at CALL resistance. 🐂 Bullish Setup (only if we reclaim 563 with volume): * Entry: Break and hold above 563 * Target: 567, maybe even 572 if gamma squeezes kick in * Stop: Drop back below 561 🧨 Options Play Ideas * Looking short-dated? Consider a PUT debit spread like 562/557 for this week if momentum confirms. * For bounce lovers: CALL debit 563/567 spread, but only if we break 563 and hold above. * With IV a bit hot, spreads are safer than naked options to control risk. Final Thoughts:
SPY’s sitting at a pivot. It’s either digesting gains before another push… or we’re about to see some hedging volatility flood in. I’m personally watching how it handles 560–563 range — everything hinges on that for me. No need to rush in. Let the chart tell you. This is not financial advice. Just me sharing how I see the market and how I’d trade it based on what the data and charts are saying.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Rising Unemployment Claims Signal Labor Market Softening Initial jobless claims increased by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, marking the highest level since late February. Continuing claims also rose to 1.916 million, indicating potential cracks in the labor market. 🏭 Manufacturing Sector Contracts Amid Tariff Pressures The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, indicating a second consecutive month of contraction. Tariffs on imported goods have strained supply chains and elevated input prices, contributing to the downturn. 📉 Construction Spending Declines Construction spending decreased by 0.5% in March, reflecting reduced investments in both residential and nonresidential projects. This decline suggests caution in the construction sector amid economic uncertainties. 📊 Mixed Signals from Manufacturing Indices While the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates contraction, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 50.2 in April, suggesting stability in some manufacturing segments despite broader challenges. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, May 2: 💼 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) Provides insight into employment trends and overall economic health. 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) Measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. 💰 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) Indicates wage growth and potential inflationary pressures. 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing sector strength. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Gambling Is Not Trading : A Quick Reminder to THINKI've been getting quite a few messages from followers and many are positive. I seems my videos are helping many of you learn better skills and helping you find profits from these bigger price swings. But it also seems some of you are really gambling for the bigger gains with 0DTE options and taking excessive risks (IMO). I want to urge all of you to THINK and to try to learn to adopt a more fluid style of trading. The markets will quickly humble many of you gamblers. They have a way of taking everything you have when you let your guard down. Start Small. Build Your Skills. Learn How To Check Yourself When You Get Into That Gambling Mode. Remember, The Market Can Take EVERYTHING (And MORE). The trick to trading is to learn to GROW your account without gambling. It is like being a Sniper. You have to learn when to take your shot and you also have to learn when to be patient and wait. One of the best pieces of advice I've heard came from a friend (who trades options). He stated. Start Small Book Winners Quickly Book Anything over 20-25% -- Then Plan For The next Attack. Think about it. He's been trading for more than 20 years and has learned many of the pitfalls over that time. And, he is the one guy that I've seen generate 100-200%+ a week (consistently) over the past 2+ years. If you want to survive as a trader, you have to start thinking like a trader (not a GAMBLER). I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
10
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 6, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Market Retreats Amid Tariff Concerns U.S. stock markets declined on May 5, 2025, as investors reacted to potential tariffs and key earnings reports. The S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq decreased 0.7%. Notably, Palantir Technologies ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) fell nearly 8% in extended trading despite raising its full-year revenue forecast and exceeding Q1 revenue estimates. 🏛️ Fed Meeting Commences Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins today, with the central bank expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies. 🎬 Entertainment Stocks Under Pressure Streaming giants Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) and Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) experienced premarket losses of over 5% and 3%, respectively, following President Trump's proposal of a 100% tariff on foreign-made movies. 🏠 Housing Market Faces Challenges The U.S. housing market is weakening due to persistent high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty driven by tariff policies. Mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.76%, have deterred both prospective buyers and sellers. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao