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$SPY OVERIVEW ON THE MONTHLY TIME FRAMEAn overview of AMEX:SPY from a technical standpoint. This does not include any fundamental / economical consideration. AMEX:SPY has been in this rising channel since 2020. Each wave / rejection from the trendline / channel caused a 10 - 12 month directional move 100pts +. AMEX:SPY is at the top trendline / channel again. Could see an upward continuation of price in an attempt to hit $600. Failure to break through $600 could start the retracement / correction / pullback over the next 10 - 12 months back to the bottom of the channel / trendline. This would put AMEX:SPY at around $500, give or take 20 - 40 pts. This would be in alignment with what some of the more well-known analyst / economist has been stating about 15/20% correction. Reason for the margin of error is the last two waves moved an avg of 140 pts. $500 is a key level psychologically and from an algorithmic point of view. $600 is also a key psychological / algorithmic level as well. If there is a break of this level, market could see another 20 - 40 pts topside move before consolidation and then possible retracement / correction / pullback. This is NOT financial advice but merely an opinion.
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
1
$SPY $SPX seems like primed for a mega downfallNot trading advice. But seems that based on the chart's historical data and the visual analysis of trend lines, we are at a critical peak in the SPY's price trajectory. The exponential rise seen over the last several years has positioned the market near the upper bounds of a well-established channel, suggesting that upside potential may be severely limited from here. Additionally, the convergence of multiple support and resistance levels signals a potential reversal. Given the extended nature of this current bull run and past cyclical patterns, a sharp downturn seems imminent. This would align with the broader historical trends, where market euphoria peaks before significant corrections, as the price action appears overextended relative to long-term support levels. The likelihood of reversion to the mean, as evidenced by previous corrections at similar junctures, strengthens the case for an impending downturn, which could be substantial given the current inflated levels. SP:SPX AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by dark131313
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-4 :Up-Down-Up Pattern (Counter)Today's pattern is an Up-Down-Up in Counter Trend mode. Thus, I expect to see and Dn-Up-Dn pattern today. This pattern reflects today and the previous two days - as Down - Up - Down in range. Overall, I expect today to be rather muted in terms of total range. Price should stay muted, sideways and drift downward overall. Additionally, I believe the markets will be attempting to settle into support headed into dual base/bottom/momentum rally patterns setting up this weekend. I believe these patterns reflect a momentum shift that will launch the markets upward next week. Gold and Silver will melt-upward today - likely attempt to settle the week near weekly highs. BTCUSD is struggling to start forming a base near the 59k-20k levels. It will likely take 4-5 days for BTCUSD to actually build enough momentum to roll out of this basing pattern. So, today is a day to prepare for the weekend and for next week's trading activity. Sit back and take it easy today as price settles into the weekend's shifting momentum. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
SPY Technical Analysis For Tomorrow (10/4/2024)Trend & Chart Patterns Descending Triangle: The chart shows SPY in a potential descending triangle pattern, where the price is forming lower highs with a flat support area near $566. This is typically considered a bearish continuation pattern, suggesting a potential breakdown if the support doesn't hold. Support Levels: $566.00: This appears to be a key support level that has been tested multiple times. If price breaks below this, we could see further downside. $565.27: A critical low that might act as a trigger point for a breakdown if it breaches. Resistance Levels: $570.06: This is the most immediate resistance. If SPY moves above this level, we could expect bullish momentum in the short term. $574.38: A stronger resistance level from earlier price action that could serve as an upper target on a breakout. Volume: There seems to be a moderate decline in volume, which could indicate that traders are waiting for a breakout or breakdown from the triangle pattern. MACD (Bottom Oscillator): The MACD shows some indecision, with signals slightly crossing, indicating that momentum is neutral to bearish at the moment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Potential Price Action for Tomorrow Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): If SPY breaks below the $566-$565.27 zone, you could expect a move down toward $562 or possibly lower. In this scenario, you might consider entering a short position once SPY breaks and closes below $565 with increasing volume. Potential downside targets: $562, then $558. Bullish Scenario (Breakout): If SPY breaks above $570.06, you could see a rally toward $574. In this case, you might want to take a long position after confirmation of the breakout above $570.06. Potential upside targets: $574.38, then $575+ if momentum is strong. Entry/Exit Points Entry for Short: Enter below $565.27 if there's a strong bearish candle with volume. Stop-loss: Place a stop above $570 to minimize risk. Take-profit target: $562, $558. Entry for Long: Enter above $570.06 on confirmation of a bullish breakout. Stop-loss: Place a stop below $566 to minimize risk. Take-profit target: $574.38, $575 or higher if the market shows strength. Directional Suggestion Given the descending triangle and the overall trend of lower highs, the likelihood leans towards a bearish breakdown unless there is a clear catalyst that pushes SPY above $570.06. Watch closely for confirmation in either direction with volume to determine tomorrow's trade.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY potential pullback With USA elections looming, geopolitical instability and wars intensifying in the middle east looking at the price action on SPY, currently retesting 570.00 region after swinging in the past two weeks between 574.00 - 565.00. Technical indicators show a possible buyer exhaustion and now a sellers market with investors taking profits therefore possibly driving price action downward. looking to retest support at 550.00 - 545.00. Our main resistance currently is 570.00 if not broken we could see price move to test support levels and below.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ruli1690
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024): In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges: Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%) US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%) US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M) US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4) US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M) These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur. Overview: The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September. 2007 Market Behavior: July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable. -9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis. Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies. September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration. Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded. 2024 Market Behavior (So Far): July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. -8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments. Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures. September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen. Comparative Analysis: Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy. Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation. Key Observations: Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures. Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility. Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.
AMEX:SPYShort
by alcoholic-semen-thrower
SPY: A Critical Inflection Point! (D&W charts)In our last analysis last week, we had already identified a critical support point around $565, which is once again acting as a support, as expected. However, in the light of new evidence, we have to update the central point of the idea, and draw up possible scenarios for us to work on next. The link to our prevous analysis on SPY is below this post, as usual. Daily Chart (Left): Previous Top at $574.71: This level represents the recent all-time high, which has become a point of resistance after the price failed to maintain above it. Current Support at $565.16: The price is testing the $565.16 support area, which was previously a resistance level. It is now, for the second time, a crucial level to hold for the continuation of the uptrend. This is the most important inflection point for the SPY. 21-day EMA Support: The price is hovering around the 21-day EMA, adding more significance to this support zone. A daily close below this line could indicate a deeper pullback. Weekly Chart (Right): Possible Evening Star Pattern: The recent weekly candles form a potential evening star pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal signal, especially after a strong uptrend. This pattern is characterized by a small-bodied candle (potential reversal sign) followed by a bearish candle. Key Support Areas: The first support to watch is $565.16, aligning with the daily timeframe, followed by a more significant support at $539.44 if the evening star pattern confirms. Trend Continuation: If the pattern fails to confirm, a weekly close back above $574.71 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal strength in the current trend. Conclusion: The SPY chart is at a critical juncture. The daily chart shows support holding at $565.16, which is a critical support level and inflection point for the SPY, as a break below this line could trigger a sharper sell-off. The potential evening star pattern on the weekly chart adds bearish pressure, and we should closely monitor the $565.16 level for further clues. If the evening star confirms, the $539.44 support could come into play as a downside target. For bullish continuation, holding above $565.16 and reclaiming the $574.71 level are essential. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPY
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-3 : Reversal Rally DayOver the past few days, I've posted 4-5+ videos highlighting my SPY Cycle Patterns and how these help traders plan and prepare for future price action/trades. Today's Reversal Rally pattern should prompt a moderately strong upward price move in the SPY/QQQ. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to rally up into the 572-573 range today - maybe a bit higher. The QQQ may attempt to rally up into the 487-489 range today. Gold and Silver are working through a Temporary Bottom pattern today. This pattern usually starts with a moderate downward price move (setting up a base) and then rolls upward. So, I expect Gold to attempt to move back up to the 2680-2685 level today, and I expect Silver to rally up to the 32.12-32.25 level today. BTCUSD is stuck in the Excess Phase Peak setup's downward (rolling base) pattern. This rolling base will likely take more than 2-4 days to resolve before we'll start to see BTCUSD move into the FLAGGING stage of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. This suggests BTCUSD will struggle over the next 4 to 7 days before resolving into a moderate uptrend (the FLAGGING stage) - leading to a make-or-break price move sometime near October 15-19 or so. That make-or-break move could be huge depending on how BTCUSD resolves the end of the FLAGGING phase. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
$SPY October 3, 2024AMEX:SPY October 3, 2024 15 Minutes. As expected, AMEX:SPY was in sideways sort out the two long bars of 1st October. For the fall 574.38 to 565.27 AMEX:SPY had retraced 61.88 around 570 levels. For the rise 565.27 to 569.9 AMEX:SPY had again retraced 61.8% of that move to 567 levels. Now AMEX:SPY made a low at 565.27 and we can see oscillator divergence. Hence this number is important to hold now. If we draw an extension for the move 567.27 to 569.9 to 567.58, we can see 570 - 572 as initial target. At the moment AMEX:SPY below 100 and 200 averages in 15 minutes. Hence a long only above 571 with the close of bar near the top. On downside I expect strong support around 562 563 levels being 200 averages in 60 Minutes time frame. So, we are stuck between 563 to 571 today most probably for a buy above or sell below trade. I expect to have a trade tomorrow, Friday.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
For tomorrow's SPY Technical Analyst (October 3, 2024)The market sentiment is leaning towards bearish following recent weakness due to a slight pullback in the broader market. Currently, SPY is trading around $568 with some volatility. Technical Analysis: Support Levels: Immediate support is seen around $565, which was tested recently. If it breaks below this, $560 could be the next significant support level. Resistance Levels: On the upside, resistance is around $570, which also aligns with where sellers have been active. Breaking above this level could target the next zone around $574. Price Action & Trend: There seems to be consolidation between $565 and $570. A move above $570 could indicate bullish continuation, while a drop below $565 may signal further downside​( markets.businessinsider.com). Entry/Exit Points: Potential Entry: Look for a bounce off $565 for a long position, but watch for confirmation of a strong support hold (e.g., candlestick patterns like a bullish engulfing on the 1-hour chart). Potential Exit: If going long, target $570 and then $574. For shorts, breaking below $565 could aim for $560 as an exit target. Risk Management: Keep stop losses tight around $562 to minimize downside risks if the market moves against your position.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Advanced Analysis by Deno Trading: What’s Next for the S&P 5Let’s dive into the SPY analysis across multiple timeframes, looking for key insights on where the market could be headed. I’ll break it down step by step so it’s easier to follow along. 30-Minute Chart Overview: Current Price Action: We’re sitting around $569, and what’s really interesting is that SPY has been consolidating after hitting a recent high of $570. The market is in a bit of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and we’re right at a pivotal level. Key Resistance: The $570 - $574 zone is a major resistance level. Every time we’ve tested it recently, we’ve seen the market pull back, indicating strong selling pressure. This zone is critical, and we’ll need to break above it with volume to see any further upside. Support: On the downside, the first level of support is around $565, followed by $561, which aligns with the 50-period moving average on the 30-minute chart. If the price breaks below this level, we could see further downside pressure. 4-Hour Chart Insights: Moving Average Support: On the 4-hour chart, we’re seeing strong support at $561, where the 50-period moving average has been acting as a floor for recent price action. As long as SPY holds this level, the bulls still have a chance to regain control. Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price holds $561 and pushes higher, a break above $574 could take us to new highs for the year, potentially testing levels above $580. Bearish Case: If we fail to hold $561, I’d expect a move down towards $552, where the next level of support lies. This level has acted as both resistance and support in the past, making it an important area to watch. Daily Chart Breakdown: Longer-Term Uptrend: The daily chart shows that SPY is still in a broader uptrend, holding above the 200-day moving average, currently sitting around $552. This level has provided a solid base throughout the year, so as long as we remain above it, the long-term trend remains bullish. Current Resistance: The $570 - $574 resistance zone is evident here as well. This level marks the highs from September, and breaking it would signal the market’s willingness to push towards $580 and beyond. Weekly Chart for Perspective: Larger Timeframe: The weekly chart tells a similar story. We’re hovering around $570, right at a major resistance level. The 50-week moving average, sitting around $512, is well below the current price, suggesting we still have a cushion before a significant breakdown would occur. What to Watch: If we break $574 on the weekly chart, we could see a massive bullish continuation. However, failure to break this level could lead to a bigger pullback to $550 or even $530 in the weeks ahead. Conclusion & What I’m Watching: Bullish Breakout Scenario: If SPY breaks above $574 with strong volume, we could see a rally towards $580 or higher. This would confirm that buyers are back in control. Bearish Rejection Scenario: On the flip side, failure to break this resistance could lead to a pullback towards $561 or even $552. If we break below those levels, the bearish case strengthens, and we could see further downside. Final Thoughts: Right now, we’re at a pivotal point. The next few trading sessions will determine whether we’re gearing up for a breakout or a more significant pullback. I’m watching the $570 - $574 level closely for signs of either bullish continuation or rejection.
AMEX:SPY
by Deno_Trading
SPY is about to complete its blow-off topThe current atmosphere is of extreme fear. However VIX has not spiked as much as anticipated and a significant amount of assets are either completely oversold or seemingly getting ready to short squeeze (see GME, DJT, BTC). Looking at the chart, the top also seems incomplete. US elections are forthcoming, and global M2 supply is rising. I cannot currently see the bear case yet, but with the amount of shorts and puts that have accumulated in a panic-driven fashion during last week any upside move would lead to immediate and violent upside continuation. Extreme R:R for those who dare. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined
1
SPY 09/13Perfect followthrough, right on track for the blow-off top idea. Stoploss and TP are approximate and not recommendations. Expect volatility. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined