[03/03] SPY GEX Analysis (Until Friday Expiration)Overall Sentiment:
Currently, there’s a positive GEX sentiment, suggesting an optimistic start to the week following Friday’s bounce. However, the key Call resistance appears at 600, and it may not break on the first attempt. If optimism remains strong, there’s a chance SPY 0.09%↑ could still push above that zone after some initial back-and-forth.
🟢Upside Levels:
600–605 Zone: This is a major resistance area. Should SPY move decisively through 600/605, the next potential target could be 610.
610: This is currently the largest positive GEX zone for the week. Current option pricing suggests only about a 9% chance of closing at or above 610 by Friday, so it might require a particularly strong move to break through.
🔵 Transition Zone: Roughly 592–599. The gamma flip level is near 592, and staying above that keeps the market in a positive gamma range for now.
🔴 Downside Risk:
If 592 Fails (or HVL climbing up during the week, and after that HVL fails…): A drop could accelerate toward 585, which may act as the first take-profit zone for bears. Below that, 580 could be in play if selling intensifies.
Lower Support: 575 is the last strong support mentioned, but current option probabilities suggest about an 88% chance of finishing above that level, making a move below 575 less likely—though still possible given the higher put skew.
🟣Volatility & Skew:
IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) is quite high on SPY, with a notable put pricing skew (around 173.1%).
This heightened put skew indicates the market is pricing in faster, more volatile downward moves compared to upside.
