Ascending Triangle SPY 4 HRJust noticed this massive Ascending Triangle on SPY 4 HR. If this does decide to breakout, we will see SPY at new ATH within the next 6 weeks.
SPY trade ideas
Fed Rate Cut Analysis $Spy Stocks usually fall ~15% within 12 months following the 1st cut if there is a recession.
If no recession, stocks rise by >10%.
The volatility that dominated markets in the early part of the month sharply reversed in the past week, driven by growing expectations of interest rate cuts that have bolstered investor risk appetite.
The latest batch of inflation statistics for August have given the green light for the Federal Reserve to proceed with an interest rate cut, which is highly likely to occur on Sept. 18.
The remaining question concerns the size of the cut — whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points — though market consensus and recent comments from Fed officials suggest the more conservative 25 basis points is the likely scenario.
Some consolidation around the current levels could not be ruled out before the Fed’s interest-rate announcement, scheduled for Wednesday. While some call for broadening of the market rally, with tech stocks likely to add on to their gains, others draw cues from history, which shows that the market typically collapses after a rate cut. Regional manufacturing activity data could also impact the market direction of the day.
SPY The Final PushMarkets have been extremely volatile this summer with the anticipation of a rate cut swiftly approaching in September. Futures markets are currently predicting a 99% probability of a cut in September.
Historically, markets do not tend to crash during election years, however the combination of rate cuts, global tensions, inflation, employment, and many more factors may change the outcome of what is to come.
At the moment, the markets have made a large move to the downside into a previous support zone. Additionally, I am seeing absorption on the CVD, potentially suggestion weak hands are selling into the hands of the bigger players. There could be some room for the market to get a bounce here.
We do have several gaps left behind us on the way up where major liquidity is sitting. An SFP swing failure pattern of the all time high, would be a critical area if we make it that far.
A bounce here may provide us some temporary upside before the eventual selling of the news of rate cuts. I am looking to hedge myself against a larger drop going into September.
Only time will tell,
Good luck!
Mom 9.16 SPY HIGH You can see the targets for the daily swings. Liquidity close for upside. Liquid is a little further down for a bottom side. Was looking green today maybe red Tuesday. Either way, conservative targets always hit.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-16 : Gap Reversal PatternMy honest opinion related to the next 2~3 trading days is - go take a few days off and wait out the markets for the next 48+ hours.
I don't believe there will be much in terms of opportunity over the next 48-72 hours as price is likely to chop around near the top of the current FLAG. The real opportunity comes late Wednesday and into Thursday/Friday as price should attempt to break downward (if my analysis is correct) and move into a solid 5-7+ days of downward price momentum.
What I see happening over the next 48-72 hours is Sideways Chop. Not fun for the average trader and really not something you can make a lot of money trading unless you are very skilled at catching short-term price rotation with options.
Overall, the next 48+ hours should be about observation - watching price attempt to stall, break away from this FLAG, and setting up for the bigger move near the 19th & 20th of September.
I'm not telling you how or what to trade. I'm just saying I believe the next 48-72 hours will be very difficult for average traders.
OK. Happy Monday.
Get some.
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S&P bulls regain control, aiming for the new highAfter the major sell-off in the first week of September, the market has made a U-turn, rebounding to its previous highs. This outcome was anticipated as highly likely in my last review, though, as is often the case, the market exceeded boldest expectations.
Currently, we have confirmed a weekly higher low, which provides a solid foundation for the continuation of the uptrend. It’s also worth noting that the rally is being driven by risk-on assets like XLK and XLY, reflecting growing investor confidence.
The mid- and long-term outlook remains bullish, though heightened volatility is expected as we approach the US elections.
Important levels:
539.4 - major weekly low. Bulls must protect this level to keep uptrend intact
565.2 – major monthly high. There might be some resistance at this level. Bulls must clear it for uptrend continuation.
FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday but it is not expected to bring big surprises.
EASY PLAYS $SPY 9/16- 9/20 - Very High chance that price will make it to ATH (All time Highs) Next week. Price action has been strong and bullish.
- Remember, In order for a valid breakout to be confirmed we need a clear break and retest or a strong close above $565.16.
- Price can also reject from all time highs which is also possible as we can see the buying volume has been dying down and we are falling into a divergence.
- With these TWO scenarios given we must analyze price action and adapt to the markets as price goes.
- To keep it simple Puts below $560.50 and calls above $565.26 WITH 1-2 CANDLE STICK CONFIRMATIONS ON AT LEAST 15m
Hey SPY lovers, look at all that green! Do you believe me now?We are undoubtedly in a scenario where the price is showing a lot of strength. As we can see, the price previously attempted to break all-time highs but encountered an institutional liquidity block, trying twice and creating a double top before making a pullback for days !
This second attempt to break the all-time high will be very important because, after the pullback, we were able to forecast the limit where the price would bounce back. Just one candle with a lot of volume and buying pressure was enough to realize that the price would reverse at $544.
If you've been following this analysis for weeks or months, you'll notice that everything is playing out according to our price action and institutional analysis.
Now, we just need to wait for that ATH, and I think this time will be different, especially considering that we're in election months, and the current president's political party wants the economy to look strong before the elections. So, we can expect a bull run from now until November.
Thank you for supporting my analysis, and if you've benefited from it and made profits, congratulations, I'm happy for you.
Best regards.
$SPY - a 100% win at the top of the implied move on Friday"Last Friday, we opened with a gap up in SPY, and from there, we pushed up into the gap created on the first trading day of September. Within that gap, we reached the top of the implied move at 563, which acted as resistance. After reaching that level, we pulled back slightly but still closed within the implied move and without closing out the gap from the first week of September.
If you sold bear call spreads at the top of the implied move on Friday when we hit that level, those positions would have closed up 100%. So, if you tuned in to last Friday's video and took this trade—congratulations!
Currently, we are in the bear gap that opened at the beginning of September, which sits just beneath the bear gap created after reaching all-time highs. We're also in overbought territory here."
SPY Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 561.96 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 556.18
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY BEARISH CORRECTION AHEAD|SHORT|
✅SPY went up sharply
But a strong resistance level was hit at 565.19$
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target at 559.85$
SHORT🔥
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Spy short term The way that I see, the price is close to the resistance in a hour chart and daily chart.
I'm using Fibonacci and Elliot Waves to find good positions for scalping.
I hope it can help you guys with good trades.
564 at best 573 from the over extended move of the past 5We reported accurately last week, and from the indicators, it can still extend; I think this is happening earlier in the week and will confirm this flush, but otherwise, monitoring.
SPY: Weak Market & Bearish Continuation
Balance of buyers and sellers on the SPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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SPY: Short-Term Selloff Anticipated After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY:
Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve approaches its rate cut decision this week, speculation is high that we may see a larger-than-expected cut of 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25. This could trigger a short-term selloff in equities, including the SPY (S&P 500 ETF), despite the initial market reaction.
The market often exhibits a “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior, and this situation could be no different. With expectations set for a 25 basis point cut, a surprise 50 basis point reduction might lead to concerns about the underlying economic conditions. This could prompt a selloff in major indices, including SPY, as traders and investors react to the Fed’s unexpected move.
In the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision, SPY might see a brief uptick as market participants adjust their positions and optimism prevails. However, this short-term rally could be quickly overshadowed by a broader correction. As the market digests the implications of the Fed's actions and potential economic concerns come to light, SPY is likely to experience a pullback.
For those looking to capitalize on this potential downturn, the $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could be a prudent choice. These puts offer a strategic way to hedge against or profit from the anticipated short-term decline in SPY. Given the expected correction following the Fed's rate cut, this option could provide significant value as SPY faces downward pressure.
While SPY may experience an initial rise in response to the Fed’s decision, the broader market sentiment is likely to shift towards risk aversion, leading to a correction in the weeks following the announcement. By October 18, the broader market and SPY could be reflecting these adjustments, making the $550 puts a timely investment.
In summary, while SPY might see some early gains next week, a correction is expected to follow as the market reacts to the Fed’s decision. The $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could offer a valuable opportunity for those anticipating this short-term volatility.
SPY Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY went up sharply
But has hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 565.22$
And despite the fact that
We are bullish biased mid-term
The ETF is locally overbought
Thus we will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
$SPY 14, September 2024AMEX:SPY 14, September 2024
Weekend views.
Uptrend confirmed.
I will be worried only if 510 is broken as of now.
On daily my target is 580 levels initially.
This is derived from 1.5 times extension for the move 348 to 459 to 409 levels.
On Monday if AMEX:SPY is able to cross 564-565 levels and hold for at least one hour we can see a big move towards 580 in few days.
Now holding 555-557 is crucial for next uptrend.
In 15 minutes for the last rise 556.53 to 563.03 it is important to hold 559-560 levels.
If 559 is broken, then we will have another multiple tops around 563 and hence can expect some sideways between 554 to 560 to converge the moving averages.
Not the time to short in any time frame. As of now.
SPY 09/12Well on track for the big blow-off top idea. Expecting to see 565 in the next few days, then potentially higher to new ATH
Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
SPY In-depth Technical AnalysisA detailed technical analysis with Key Levels of support and resistance, expectations on the price action and trend.
Do your analysis and research as well while trading with these 3 simple tricks.
Identify entry, get in the trade, get green, get out.
Rinse Lather Repeat. Stay positive and Strong
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern.
It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern).
Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not.
Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point.
Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks.
Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election.
Plan, prepare, and Get Some.
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SPY - Assigned but Not WorryingThere is always the potential of being assigned and here we are assigned a 200 share short position. Not a bit worried as we are entering this very broad resistance area.
Have a couple options here.
1) I can close out and take a loss, not going to do that yet.
2) Sell PUTs against my short position to cover or collect more premiums. (May opt to do this will see how the market plays out after the cash open)
3) Just let it ride for now (which is my most likely scenario)
Have to be patient here and I am one of the most patient traders you will meet.
Yes this is real money I am playing with, not selling trades and have no account myself.
SPY Daily Chart Analysis: Approaching Key Resistance at $564Looking at the SPY daily chart, the price has recovered well from its recent pullback and is now approaching a significant resistance level around $564.
Key Levels:
Resistance at $564: The green dashed line highlights this key resistance zone. SPY has tested this level multiple times, and we’re nearing another test. Each time the price approached this zone, it faced rejection, making it a critical level to break for continued upside.
Support at $552.49: This is the immediate support zone, and it’s holding strong. Any pullback towards this level would be a natural correction but as long as we stay above it, the bulls remain in control.
What I Expect:
Potential Breakout: If SPY manages to break and hold above $564, we could see a significant rally, possibly testing higher resistance levels around $570. However, failure to break this resistance might lead to another pullback, with $552 acting as the first major support.
Sideways Action:
There’s also the chance that SPY could consolidate in the $552 - $564 range before making a decisive move in either direction. This would create a buildup of momentum before the next big breakout or breakdown.
Final Thoughts:
We’re at a critical juncture. If the bulls can push through $564, we might see a continuation of the larger uptrend. However, resistance here has been strong, so I’ll be watching closely for either a breakout or a rejection at this level. Stay cautious and watch for clear confirmation before making your move.
$SPY September 13, 2024AMEX:SPY September 13, 2024
30 Minutes
We achieved near 560 levels as expected.
Now for the rise 539.95 to 559.38 holding 554-555; levels we have a target 564-566 levels.
I am expecting good moves next week, if today at close moving averages line up nicely.
I still expect 563-566 levels to provide strong resistance. We have multiple tops in that ara in all time frames.
