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SPY trade ideas

SPY Analysis 12/06/24Key Observations on the Price Action (SPY): Trend and Price Context: - SPY is trading near its all-time high of $607.88, with the post-market price at $607.84. While price action remains bullish overall, the grey MACD histogram suggests bearish momentum is building, indicating potential weakness or divergence. Support and Resistance: - The white horizontal line at 600 remains a critical support level, representing prior resistance that could act as a buying zone if SPY pulls back. - A breakout above $607.88 would signify renewed bullish strength and continuation to new highs. Moving Averages: - The 50-day MA (blue line) continues to slope upward, providing a general trend guide but not acting as dynamic support since price hasn’t recently interacted with it. - The 200-day MA (magenta line) remains far below the current price, confirming long-term bullish momentum. Indicator Observations: MACD Histogram (Background): - The grey histogram indicates bearish momentum, suggesting a potential divergence from the strong price trend. This could be an early warning of a pullback or consolidation. RSI (Gray Line): - RSI remains above 50, confirming overall bullish momentum but does not yet indicate overbought conditions. ADX and DMI (White, Blue, Magenta Lines): - ADX (32.75) reflects moderate trend strength. While the trend is intact, the ADX level suggests it is not overly dominant, leaving room for potential retracement. - DI+ (Blue Line) is still above DI- (Magenta Line), indicating buyers remain in control for now, despite the bearish MACD signal. Key Scenarios to Watch: Bearish Divergence (MACD vs. Price): - The grey MACD histogram reflects bearish momentum that diverges from the bullish price trend. This could signal slowing momentum or a potential short-term pullback. Critical Support at $600: - A pullback to the 600 level could confirm a healthy retracement within the broader uptrend. If this level fails, it could open the door for deeper corrections toward the 50-day MA or lower support zones. Breakout Potential at $607.88: - A strong breakout above the all-time high would likely negate the bearish MACD signal, especially if accompanied by increased volume and rising momentum indicators. Conclusion: - While SPY remains in a strong uptrend near its all-time high, the grey MACD histogram introduces caution, signaling that bearish momentum may be building despite bullish price action. A pullback to $600 is possible and could provide an opportunity for buyers to step in, as long as this support level holds. Trading Implications: For Bulls: Monitor price action at $607.88 for a breakout or wait for a pullback to $600 for potential re-entry. Keep an eye on the MACD histogram to see if bearish momentum persists or reverses. For Bears: Use the bearish MACD signal as an early warning for a potential retracement. A breakdown below $600 could signal deeper downside potential. SPY is at a pivotal moment. While the trend remains intact, the bearish MACD histogram demands caution and suggests the need to carefully watch support levels and momentum changes.
AMEX:SPY
by maybethatguy
SPY Pullback in an Ascending Channel. Dec 6, 2024SPY continues to respect an ascending channel but is currently pulling back from the upper boundary. The price action suggests a potential for further retracement or a bounce from support levels. With increasing selling momentum, tomorrow's session will be key to determining whether SPY maintains its bullish structure or breaks down. Here’s a detailed analysis and playbook for scalpers and swing traders. Market Structure Overview: * Trend: SPY remains in a bullish uptrend, trading within a clean ascending channel. The pullback, however, suggests short-term weakness. * Current Price Action: * The price has dropped below $606.22 and is heading toward the midline of the channel. * Selling volume is increasing, signaling bearish momentum in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance: * $608.48: Immediate resistance at the recent high. * $612: Upper channel boundary, acting as strong resistance. * Support: * $602.43: First level of support, aligned with previous consolidation. * $597.32: Major horizontal support and the lower boundary of the channel. * $594.15: Critical support level if the channel breaks down. Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks: * Liquidity Zones: * Significant liquidity is below $602.43, with stops likely clustered near $600-$598. * Order Blocks: * Bullish OB: Between $597-$600, aligning with the lower channel boundary. * Bearish OB: Near $608-$610, where selling pressure has emerged. MACD & Volume Analysis: * MACD: Shows bearish momentum as the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating potential for further downside. * Volume: Selling volume is increasing, confirming the pullback, but watch for volume spikes near key support zones. My Thoughts on Tomorrow’s Direction: Tomorrow’s session will depend heavily on how SPY interacts with the $602-$597 support zone. Here’s what I expect: 1. Bullish Scenario: * If SPY holds above $602 and we see buying volume during the pre-market or early trading session, expect a bounce back toward $606-$608. A break above $608 could lead to a retest of the $612 upper channel resistance. * Catalysts such as positive economic data or strong tech sector performance could trigger this move. 2. Bearish Scenario: * If SPY fails to hold $602 and breaks below $600, we could see accelerated selling toward $597 and potentially $594. * Watch for increasing bearish volume and rejection near $602 on intraday tests to confirm a further move lower. 3. Key Indicator to Watch: * Volume: Rising bullish volume near $602 would signal a potential reversal. Conversely, increasing bearish volume below $602 could confirm further downside. Scalping Strategy: * Entry: * Long scalps at $602-$603 if the price shows signs of holding the support level. * Short scalps at $606-$608 if price rejects resistance again. * Exit: * For longs, take profits near $605-$606. * For shorts, target $600-$598. * Stop-Loss: * For longs: Below $600. * For shorts: Above $608.50. Swing Trading Strategy: * Bullish Play: * Wait for a bounce at $597-$600 support zone and enter long. Target $608, then $612 if momentum resumes. * Bearish Play: * If SPY fails to reclaim $606 convincingly, consider shorting with targets at $597 or lower. * Stop-Loss: * For longs: Below $597. * For shorts: Above $608. Game Plan for SPY Trading: 1. Pre-Market Prep: * Monitor overnight futures to gauge sentiment. * Mark $606 (resistance) and $597 (support) for intraday reactions. 2. Market Open Strategy: * Observe the first 15-30 minutes to confirm direction. * Look for rejection or bounce at key levels before entering trades. 3. Intraday Execution: * Use the ascending channel to guide entries and exits. * Keep a close eye on volume spikes for confirmation. 4. End of Day: * Close intraday positions and reassess swing setups based on the closing structure. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY, QQQ and a bit of BTC Hey guys, I haven't been posting much this year and its mostly because I hate bull markets haha. My resolution for new years is to be more engaged next year. In this post I am just going over my thoughts and analysis for the short term on the week. My EOY outlook is pretty much a continuation to the upside. January will be the make or break month. We really should see selling starting then. But we can reassess it when January comes around. Sorry for the rambling and hopefully you find this somewhat helpful. Feel free to leave your questions below and as always, safe trades!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Harami-Inside DayToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay rather flat and likely close within yesterday's body range. I'm not expecting a lot of price action today - although we could see a high/low range outside of yesterday's body range. Gold and Silver are struggling to find support and rally from recent lows. The US Dollar's move back below 106 is positive for metals. But I urge traders to stay very cautious until they see a clear bullish breakaway pattern in metals. I've been trying to tell everyone for 3+ weeks that the markets typically go a bit WONKY after a big election process. This year, Trump's victory was a big surprise for many, and I'm confident traders are attempting to avoid risks by staying away from making big moves before the end of the year. Bitcoin fell back below $100k again and I believe BTCUSD could be setting up a very large Excess Phase Peak pattern. If I'm correct, we may see Bitcoin fall to GETTEX:82K (possibly $72k) as the EPP pattern continues. It is very early in this EPP price structure, but ultimately, the EPP either continues to play out or invalidates. So, one way or another, we will either see a move down to GETTEX:82K (or below) or a rally move breaking above the $103k highs. Again, I expect a very flat day for the SPY/QQQ. Stay safe. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
SpyTagging upper boundary here near 608-610... Smaller time frame and you'll see the rising wedge here spy has been trading inside last week. The wedge narrowness is responsible for the chop melt up... I'm expecting a break down either tomorrow on Job numbers or Monday Take in the overbought conditions and I spy should pullback to close gap at 598 minimum but keep in mind of 603 gap first. Stop losses over 610 This melt up this early was weird. Usually Christmas rally happens 3rd or 4th week of Dec. Bigger picture is this We are in a wedge on spy but I'm starting to wonder do they drag price out inside this range for the rest of the year?
AMEX:SPYShort
by ContraryTrader
8
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-05 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat-Down pattern may continue the rolling top pattern in my Crash Index - suggesting the markets are consolidating after the post-Election rally phase. I continue to warn traders this low liquidity market phase will likely prompt some very big volatility in price action between the election and, roughly, January 5-10. Stay cautious. I believe the markets are starting to revert a bit downward and I believe this is a very healthy move for the markets - especially after the post-election rally phase. We need the markets to resolve back into a moderation phase before attempting to make another bigger move to the upside. So, watching the markets potential roll over and fall about 3~5% would not surprise me. Gold and Silver are moving into a fairly strong rally phase. This could be coupled with a moderate US Dollar decline. Bitcoin rallied above $103k over the past 24 hour - WOW. Buckle up - the Bitcoin crew will be out in force with their memes and other comments. Remember, play these market moves safely. If you can afford to take the lumps, don't trade too much capital with each trade. Going to be a very interesting holiday as I believe liquidity will continue to erode and present even more volatility. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
$SPY Today's Trading Range 11.5.24So today’s implied move for SPY is between 605 and 611, and the 30 day average volatility is between 599 and 616. The implied move on Friday’s contract is 603 to 612. The bullish channel is still holding above the 35 EMA and it has been holding since we bounced on the election gap on the 15th. We are quite overbought here. We are just at old Time highs so that’s the only level upside. It’s directly above us and then 35 EMA below and then the one hour 35 EMA we also have yesterday gap that could definitely be a target and 30 minute two under average is underneath all of it , and we’re definitely due for a trip to meet up with that level. Good luck today guys. I will try to make a video tomorrow night, but I may not be able to so if I don’t chart will be here in the morning.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
SPY Approaching Key Resistance: Will Bulls Keep Control?Technical Analysis & Price Action * Trend Overview: SPY is in a steady uptrend, hitting $607.91 intraday, with a narrowing rising wedge pattern forming. The price is testing resistance, and volume remains consistent, indicating active participation. * Support Levels: * $604.63: Immediate support for pullbacks within the wedge. * $602.32: Key pivot point, aligning with recent consolidation zones. * $597.25: A strong support area, breaching this level could shift sentiment. * Resistance Levels: * $607.91: Immediate resistance; a breakout could drive momentum toward $610+. * $610.50–$612: Major resistance zone for profit-taking or potential rejection. Liquidity Zones & Order Blocks * Liquidity Zone: $604–$606, high activity zone acting as both support and resistance. * Order Block: $607–$609, significant recent buying activity suggests this area needs to be monitored for breakout confirmation. Scalping Playbook 1. Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $608 on volume spike and breakout confirmation. * Target: $610 (partial) and $612. * Stop Loss: Below $606. 2. Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $604.50 with high selling pressure. * Target: $602.50 and $600. * Stop Loss: Above $606. Swing Trade Strategy 1. Bullish Swing: * Entry: Close above $608 with strong continuation signals. * Target: $612 (short-term) and $615 (medium-term). * Stop Loss: $605. 2. Bearish Swing: * Entry: Close below $602 with significant volume. * Target: $597 and $595. * Stop Loss: $605. Thoughts & Projections * SPY is showing signs of slowing momentum as MACD histograms weaken, signaling potential consolidation or a pullback. * A breakout above $608 could fuel bullish sentiment, but watch for rejection near $610 due to rising wedge dynamics. * If SPY breaks below $604, bearish sentiment may intensify, targeting $602 and lower. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always perform your due diligence and practice proper risk management.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
$SPY December 5, 2024AMEX:SPY December 5, 2024 15 Minutes 60 Minutes Gaps not getting filled. Very strong uptrend. Being a moving average and Fib trader i do not have a setup for fresh entry or short. At the moment if any pull back 60o is the number to watch. It is 9 moving averages in day, and 38.2% retracement for the move 587.43 to 607.91. AMEX:SPY not even breaking 21 averages in 60 minutes since the move started from 587.43. HH HL pattern. No way to short. At the moment even if I short at 601 levels the target is only 598. So not much R:R. Need to continue the longs for 608-612 as initial target provided 601 is holding. I have no position.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
12
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-04: Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will run into resistance in early trading and roll downward at some point after reaching resistance. I see the markets opening much higher this morning as the SPY/QQQ are both broadly rallying overnight. This type of GAP UP opening often leads to the identification of price resistance and a rollover topping formation where price attempts to trail downward to fill the GAP. The concept that my SPY Cycle Patterns new this was likely many months before today's price action happens is rather unique. And this is why I love my SPY Cycle Patterns. The is no other place where you can attempt to clearly see into the future like using my SPY Cycle Patterns. Gold and Silver are still struggling today - but should attempt to make a rally move higher over the next 5+ trading days. Until we break above the Flag High level, Gold and Silver are trapped in a sideways price range. Bitcoin is also trapped in a sideways price range after reaching recent highs. As I warn in this video - be prepared for very unusual price action and events over the next 30+ days. I believe we are about to see some very unusual political and economic events play out. Keep a healthy CASH reserve and trade small quantities right now. Better to protect cash than to risk it on unknowns right now. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY Analysis: Will the Uptrend Hold or Consolidate? Dec. 4, 20241. Weekly Chart (W1): * Trend: The weekly chart shows a robust uptrend with SPY staying within a well-defined ascending channel. * Key Levels: * Resistance: 605–610 zone, which aligns with the upper channel boundary. * Support: Around 578–580, aligning with the lower channel boundary and 20 EMA. * Indicators: * MACD is strong on the weekly, showing long-term bullish momentum. * Volume is healthy, supporting the uptrend. * Prediction: Long-term trend remains bullish. Tomorrow’s action may contribute to a continuation of the broader uptrend, though a minor intraday pullback wouldn’t disrupt the weekly bullish structure. 2. Daily Chart (D1): * Trend: The daily chart shows SPY is in a steady uptrend, respecting a rising channel with higher highs and higher lows. * Key Levels: * Resistance: Around 605–607, which aligns with the upper trendline of the channel. * Support: At 595 and the 20 EMA, which has been a consistent dynamic support. * Indicators: * MACD shows positive momentum but may be slightly overextended. * Volume suggests moderate buying interest but not overly aggressive. * Prediction: Likely to continue testing resistance. A breakout above 605 could lead to higher moves, while consolidation or minor retracement to 595 is possible. 3. Hourly Chart (H1): * Trend: The hourly chart shows SPY forming tighter price action near resistance, with small-bodied candles indicating indecision. * Key Levels: * Immediate Resistance: 604.50–605. * Immediate Support: 600–601. * Indicators: * MACD on the hourly chart is flattening, signaling potential consolidation or minor pullback before another leg up. * Volume on smaller timeframes has been decreasing slightly, suggesting traders may be waiting for a catalyst. * Prediction: Possible consolidation between 600 and 605 before a decisive move. A break above 605 could align with the broader daily trend. Summary for Tomorrow: Dec. 4, 2024 * SPY is positioned near resistance across multiple timeframes. While the weekly and daily charts suggest the overall trend remains bullish, the hourly chart indicates potential consolidation before another breakout. * Bullish Scenario: If SPY breaks above 605 with volume, it could target the 610 area. * Bearish Scenario: A pullback to 600–601 support is possible before attempting to move higher. * Strategy: * Day traders: Watch for a breakout above 605 or a bounce near 600. * Swing traders: Consider the broader uptrend for potential entries on pullbacks around support levels. This multi-timeframe analysis highlights the importance of aligning your trade entries with the prevailing trend while being cautious around key resistance levels. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights