Bearish 5% or 8% ?The previous two correction cycles lasted about one month, with a correction of approximately 6% and 8%. How much will this one be?
SPY trade ideas
SPY 65 MinutesNeed to recapture 590 or we dial 911.
Looking at 65 minute timeframes, seems to me that we need to get 590 by friday so the bull parade gets going
Morning Overview: FED Decision W/ Sticky InflationThe FED is set to make a decision on interest rate cuts todays. The market has them priced in already and I doubt the FED wants to surprise markets. Going forward into 2025 I don't think they cut in Q1 for this reason.
This video covers:
* patterns in tech stocks that resemble some climatic activity.
* patterns in consumer stocks
* Trades I currently in
* One Good Trade series trades
* Possible setups for today
SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020SP 1 Hour Revised with Bottom Of March 2020 there are many rectangles
SPY analysis for Dec-18Watch out for important key levels.
Break above $605.85 with bar close will open bullish trade.
Break above $602.15 with bar close will open bearsih trade.
SPY: what 's next?SPY: what 's next?
-Swinging reaccumulation in Inside bar candle pattern.
-Some important key level as image attached.
Wait for break!
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades.
QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week
DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low
IWM - Green today but similar to DIA
Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move.
WATCHLIST:
Bullish :
NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2
Bearish :
NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q
NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other"
NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left
Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15):
ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades.
QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week
DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low
IWM - Green today but similar to DIA
Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move.
WATCHLIST:
Bullish :
NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2
Bearish :
NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q
NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other"
NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left
Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15):
ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
$spy/dxy yieahh Something's gotta give - will the fed be the catalyst this month? Will we linger another quarter? Something and soon
Yieahhhh
Main reversal area The main weekly buy/sell area on the SPY chart is a critical zone where significant price movements often occur. This area is determined by key support and resistance levels, which are influenced by various factors, including economic indicators like the Money Supply M3.
Money Supply M3 (M3)
The Money Supply M3 is a broad measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes currency, deposits, and other liquid assets. Changes in M3 can indicate economic trends and influence market sentiment.
Current Analysis
High Risk: The current analysis suggests that the main buy/sell area is at very high risk. This could be due to several factors, such as:
Economic Uncertainty: Fluctuations in the Money Supply M3 can create uncertainty in the market, leading to higher volatility.
Political Events: Recent political events or announcements can impact investor confidence and market stability.
Market Sentiment: Negative sentiment among investors can lead to increased selling pressure, pushing prices down.
Implications for Traders
Caution Advised: Given the high-risk nature of the main buy/sell area, traders should exercise caution. It may be wise to wait for clearer signals before making significant trades.
Risk Management: Implementing strict risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, can help protect against potential losses.
Monitoring Indicators: Keeping an eye on other economic indicators and market sentiment can provide additional insights and help make more informed trading decisions.
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers.
Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 .
Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent).
The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
Daily analysis of intraday trading in US stocksWhat is this blog about?
The blog is dedicated to intraday trading on the US stock market (NYSE, NASDAQ exchanges).
After each trading session, I choose the most interesting and understandable stock in terms of making a profit and do a detailed analysis of it, indicating the prerequisites for opening a position, entry and exit points.
The analysis is conducted in accordance with the applied trading system, which is based on the price reaction to horizontal levels (rebound, breakout, false breakout) and volumes. I do not use indicators.
Each analysis is accompanied by a screenshot of the trade. There is a daily (and in some cases, hourly) chart in the upper part, which is used to analyze the overall picture and draw daily levels. There is a minute (in some cases, two-minute) chart in the lower part, which is used for intraday analysis, drawing intraday levels, entering and exiting a position.
What is the practical benefit of trade analyses?
Broad visual experience is one of the key components of successful trading on financial markets, in addition to the trading system, psychology and risk management. Normally traders spend thousands of hours looking at charts before it starts to bring positive results.
However, simply looking at the chart is not enough. We need to understand what exactly we are looking for there and what situations allow us to make a profit with a higher probability.
Analysis of trades helps to solve one of the main problems of beginner traders - lack of visual experience, and for experienced traders this is an opportunity to add/correct their trading system with new trading scenarios.
How to select stocks for trading?
It is important to select the right stocks every day that have the potential to make a profit with a high probability, in order to be successful in intraday trading.
Main criteria for selection:
1. High liquidity (trading volume from 1,000,000 units and above)
2. High activity in the premarket
3. Pure directional movement
4. The stock movement does not repeat the market movement
5. "Respect" for levels both in the premarket and in the main session
6. The presence of a catalyst for movement (news, earnings, technical etc.)
These criteria are perfectly suited to the so-called Stocks In Play, which make significant non-standard movements within one trading session, which often exceed the standard price movement (ATR) several times, influenced by a strong catalyst background.
Watchlist (12/16-12/20) Using TheStratSPY Analysis: Month is 2U but back under previous M high and close to flipping red. Last week was 2D but failed to get to magnitude and closed red, but above the reversal trigger at previous week lows. Daily was 2D on Friday, so the daily actionable signal would be a 2D-2U reversal if buyers were strong enough to make a higher high on the daily come Monday. To get us lower, we have a 3-1 4HR setup as well as a shooter 2U Hourly candle. Trigger and target levels can be seen on the chart. Overall, we have some confliction as the D and W are red while the M is still green. This shows an attempt to flip the month red and we must view it this way until we see a daily higher high. If that were to happen, then we look to see the week flip red and then possibly make a higher high on the week for the weekly reversal back to the upside, which would re confirm the month being 2U and green. Traditional TA traders will see a wedge or bull flag on the daily/4HR, but as Strat traders, we know this is just a lack of strength from either side as we continue seeing failed attempts to make HHs and LLs. Although unconventional, if you check the 3 Day TF through the 8 Day TF, you will see they are all currently inside bars in formation still. We also know that inside bars restart the process of making broadening formations, so now its just a waiting game. We see the current attempt is to make lower lows on the daily since we failed to take highs out after the daily reversal, so we now either take out lows, or fail and move back through previous range to the upside. With conflicting situations like this, you just have to rely on timeframe continuity. Until the M, W, D, and 60 are all the same color, simply fall back on top down analysis and timeframe continuity to see what's really going on regardless of how the charts may look
Weekly Watchlist:
Bullish:
ETSY - 2-1 Week, Failed 2D Day. FTFC Green, so looking for BF expansion on the weekly
CRWD - 2-1 Hammer Week. 4HR inside bar. Monthly 3-2-2 still slowly compounding 2Us to Mag
RBLX - MoMO Hammer 2U week. 2-1 Daily to trigger week
RKLB - 3-2D Hammer Week. Relatively large ATR and high rVol
Bearish:
MCD - 3-1 Week, Shooter 2U Day
PINS - 3-2U failed Week, No Daily AS. Weekly Motherbar issues so caution here
PDD 1-2U failed week (Revstrat). No Daily AS. Going for large weekly BF magnitude
ROKU - Failed 2U Week. At Monthly exhaustion risk. Daily PMG and gap fill potential
OXY - 2-1 Shooter Week. Not much range, but clean weekly AS and all big oil names deep red
DDOG - 2-1 Week (Huge red week), Daily 1-3. 2 Daily gap fills, and some weekly lows to target
LVS - 2-3 Week. At Q exhaustion. Will be FTFC Red before W triggers the 3-2D
Neutral:
WMT - 2-1 Week, Daily 3-2D failed. Daily AS could send it back into ATH. Alternatively there is an 11 pivot PMG to the downside + a small gap to fill
SPY's Downtrend Reversal: A Technical InsightIn this TradingView idea, we delve into the recent price action of the SPY on the 15-minute candle frame. Observing the chart, it becomes evident that the persistent downtrend is showing signs of exhaustion. A key indicator of this potential reversal is the presence of a fair value gap (FVG), which suggests a temporary imbalance in the market. Notably, as the price made its next downward move, it failed to leave behind a fair value gap, indicating a lack of institutional buying at this level. This absence of institutional interest could imply that the price is stabilizing, setting the stage for a potential upward movement.
The focus now shifts to the unmitigated bearish fair value gaps that remain. The last significant bearish FVG was identified between the levels of 605.48 and 605.44. As the price cools down, it is poised to retrace and potentially mitigate these unaddressed gaps. This technical setup suggests a strategic opportunity for traders to anticipate a reversal, as the SPY looks to regain its footing and possibly embark on a bullish trajectory.
(Price Will Still Push Down a little Unless a Bearish Fair Value Gap is Formed and then enter Shorts at the Bearish Fair Value Gap that would Form.)
This analysis underscores the importance of fair value gaps in understanding market dynamics and predicting potential price movements. Let this Act as a FVG Trading Session to help get you trading SMART MONEY CONCEPTS >>>
SPY's Potential Reversal at New York OpenThe market is always moving towards stop loses. Price is always seeking them out and the
Market-Description:
In this analysis, we're observing the SPY chart on a 15-minute timeframe as it approaches the New York Open on Monday. The chart illustrates a potential retracement back up towards the most recent bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is creating liquidity for the market to potentially move further down.
Key Observations:
Bearish Fair Value Gap: Identified as a critical zone where price may react, providing a potential entry point for short positions.
Liquidity Creation: The retracement towards the FVG is seen as a mechanism for liquidity creation, setting the stage for a possible downward move.
Trend Break and Reversal: After the initial downward move, we anticipate a break in the trend, leading to a reversal back towards the upside.
This prediction is based on past observations and aims to provide insights into potential market movements. Traders should watch for any current Fair Value Gaps and monitor price action closely as the market unfolds.
SPY Strength or WeaknessAs people begin to take profit for the holidays. Money may flow into longer term stocks . Considering people taking off risk and economy shifting into energy and tech , bulls seem to think have control entering the new year. .
SPY Bull on EX Div WeekSPY Bull on EX Div Week, and then on Friday dump as all stocks do on ex div date
A Bullish Setup with Fair Value Gap in Play
Time to Tap Into the Reversal?
As we approach a critical juncture on SPY, the charts are presenting a fascinating opportunity for those tuned into price action and market structure. The recent price behavior suggests we may be at the cusp of a significant reversal, and a potentially bullish setup is starting to take shape. Let’s dive into why I believe SPY is primed to tap into the fair value gap (FVG) above, and why this may be the perfect time to look for long positions.
The Reversal Is in the Air
After a recent pullback, we’re seeing key technical indicators point toward a possible reversal. Price action has been testing critical support levels, and momentum is showing signs of slowing down, setting up the conditions for a bullish pivot. But what truly stands out here is the fair value gap (FVG) formed below the current price.
For those familiar with the concept, a fair value gap is an area where price has moved too quickly through a range, leaving an imbalance between buy and sell orders. These gaps often get filled as the market seeks to restore equilibrium.
Filling the Fair Value Gap – The Bullish Potential
Looking closely at SPY’s chart, we’re seeing the potential for price to either tap into the fair value gap below or close above it, signaling a strong move to the upside. If we see a push past recent resistance levels, this could trigger a gap fill on the bullish side, with price aiming for a higher target.
Here’s what we want to watch for:
Reversal Confirmation: A close above the current resistance level would confirm the potential for the bullish move. Look for a clean break and retest to validate the strength of the move.
Fair Value Gap Fill: As mentioned, price may want to fill the gap to restore equilibrium. If this occurs, it could serve as a solid entry point for long positions, with targets set to the upside.
Entry Strategy – Calls Look Attractive
Once the reversal is confirmed and the fair value gap is filled or cleared, it’s time to look for long positions. SPY has a history of making swift moves, and with momentum in our favor, a well-timed entry could provide solid returns. For those who prefer options, consider buying calls as an efficient way to tap into the bullish potential. Look for a strike price near the next significant resistance level to capitalize on the move, and make sure to manage risk appropriately with stop-loss levels.
What to Watch Next
Keep an eye on the following key levels:
Immediate Resistance: The first resistance area to watch will be around . A breakout above this level could signal the start of the bullish leg.
Fair Value Gap Zone: If SPY taps into the fair value gap, expect a pullback followed by a potential rise. The gap filling could set the stage for a more sustainable move upward.
Wrapping It Up
The current setup on SPY is compelling, and it’s important to stay vigilant as price action unfolds. With a potential reversal on the horizon and the fair value gap acting as a key technical level, the next move could be a strong one. Be ready to take advantage of the upside if we see a confirmation of this bullish shift.
As always, use proper risk management, and stay informed of any macroeconomic events that could influence market sentiment. Happy trading, and let's see where SPY takes us next!
GEX Analysis for SPY - December 13, 2024Current Price: $605.37
IVR: 8.1
IVx Average: 11.6
Options Sentiment: Bearish with 59.1% in Puts.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
* $608.00: CALL Resistance (Major resistance level).
* $609.00 - $610.00: 2nd CALL Wall, indicating a strong barrier.
Support:
* $605.00: HVL (1DTE Key level).
* $604.00: Highest Negative NETGEX / PUT Wall.
* $603.00 - $602.00: 2nd PUT Wall, highlighting downside targets.
Sentiment & Projection:
* SPY faces a challenging resistance at $608.00. A move above this level could target $610.00, but bearish sentiment remains dominant.
* Breaking below $605.00 could increase selling pressure toward $604.00 and $603.00.
Trading Strategies:
Bullish:
* Entry Above: $608.50 (Requires strong momentum).
* Target: $610.00.
* Stop Loss: $607.00.
Bearish:
* Entry Below: $605.00.
* Target: $604.00, $603.00.
* Stop Loss: $606.00.
Reminder:
Always monitor IVR and IVx for live updates to align with market conditions before executing trades.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Perform your own due diligence before trading.
SPY Bouncing in the Golden ZoneAMEX:SPY has pulled back to the most recent GZ. Looking for a bounce and continuation if it stays in/above this zone.
SPY going down until Bullish Fair Value Gap is Formed above 604Bearish Outlook on SPY
Title: Navigating SPY's Bearish Terrain: An Educational Insight
Introduction: In the world of trading, understanding market dynamics is crucial, much like the speculative nature of meme coins. This idea focuses on SPY's potential downside movement, drawing parallels to the educational approach used in identifying promising meme coins. Let's explore SPY's current market conditions and potential strategies.
Current Market Analysis:
Price Action: SPY closed at $604.68 on December 9, 2024. The market sentiment is currently negative, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.
Technical Indicators: Oscillators suggest a sell due to overbought conditions, while moving averages indicate a buy signal. This mixed outlook highlights the importance of a cautious approach.
Bearish Fair Value Gaps:
Key Levels: Two bearish fair value gaps have formed:
Gap 1: $607.22 to $606.47
Gap 2: $605.04 to $604.79
Strategy: Traders should monitor these gaps closely. If SPY respects these gaps, it could signal further downside movement. A bullish fair value gap forming above the most recent bearish gap could indicate a potential reversal.
Educational Insight:
Story and Narrative: Just as meme coins thrive on compelling stories, SPY's movement is influenced by broader market narratives. Understanding these stories can guide trading decisions.
Community and Sentiment: Engage with trading communities to gauge sentiment and gather insights. A strong community can provide valuable perspectives, much like in the meme coin space.
Option Strategy Recommendations:
Long Put Options: Consider long put options with strike prices aligned with the bearish gaps. This strategy leverages the potential downside while managing risk.
Conclusion: Navigating SPY's bearish terrain requires a blend of technical analysis and market awareness. By drawing parallels to the educational approach used in meme coin analysis, traders can enhance their understanding and strategy formulation. Remember, thorough research and a cautious approach are key to successful trading.
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction:
With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment:
Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns.
Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds.
Analysis:
Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities.
Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode.
What to Watch:
Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution.
Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities.
Conclusion:
The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance)
Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
