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SPY trade ideas

Spy Road To $500SPY is currently hovering around $533 in the afterhours session. Based on today’s price action and macro sentiment, if we open between $533–$532, we’re eyeing a potential retracement to the $522 zone. This zone aligns with previous demand structure and key VWAP deviation. Bearish Confirmation Triggers: Failure to reclaim $535 in the first 2 hours. Breakdown below $530 + low volume bounce = short trigger. MACD histogram flipping red on the 1H. Target Zone: $522–$520 Stop Loss: Above $535 reclaim Indicators Used: VWAP, MACD, Volume Imbalance, Daily Pivot Zones, Institutional Flow Heatmap. We’re also watching dark pool prints under $529 and the delta shift on order flow—both signaling increasing bearish pressure. If SPY opens flat and ranges for 2 hours → downside bias continues. As always safe Trades
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇪🇺 European Banks Brace for Tariff Impact: European banks are facing a challenging outlook as U.S. tariff hikes raise recession fears. Analysts anticipate slower revenue growth and increased loan loss provisions, with institutions like BNP Paribas expected to report earnings reflecting these pressures. ​ ✈️ Airline Industry Faces Booking Declines: European airlines report a 3% drop in planned summer trips, with leisure travel down 8% compared to 2024. Economic concerns and rising travel costs, particularly among Gen Z travelers, are contributing factors. Airlines like Ryanair and Air France-KLM are considering fare adjustments to maintain demand. ​ 👗 Kering's Revenue Drops Amid Gucci Struggles: Luxury group Kering reported a 14% decline in Q1 revenue, with flagship brand Gucci experiencing a 25% drop. The company attributes the downturn to ongoing brand challenges and macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending in key markets. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 24: 📦 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +2.1% Previous: +0.9% Measures new orders for manufactured durable goods, indicating manufacturing sector health. ​ 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 222,000 Previous: 215,000 Reflects the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, signaling labor market trends. ​ 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.14 million Previous: 4.26 million Indicates the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold, providing insight into housing market conditions. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Blocked @ the 1hr200MA, Daily 35EMA, Downtrend & GapThe 35EMA across timeframes really doesn’t disappoint. This is the Daily timeframe. We had the 1hr 200MA, the Downtrend Line off of all time highs, and the 35EMA on the daily timeframe. We were not going anywhere. And add to that the MASSIVE bear gap. Good Job today if you guys took any of the trades I posted either here or on the video last night - every one closed up 100% "SPY & SPX Stalled: 200MA, 35EMA, Downtrend & Bear Gap Clash!"
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
SPY in Focus: Tactical Day Trading Amid a Bullish RecoveryAs of early May, SPY consolidates around $560–$570, testing former support-turned-resistance. On the daily chart, the market is pausing after a rapid rally, with $610 as major resistance and $540–$485 as key support. The 1-hour chart reflects a solid uptrend with recent consolidation between $555–$568, while the 15-minute chart shows intraday weakness with critical support at $560. Three trading strategies emerge: (1) Bullish breakout, buying above $564–$568 with targets up to $580; (2) Bearish breakdown, shorting below $560 with downside to $545; and (3) Range trading, buying/selling within $558–$568 using tight stops. Confirmation via volume and candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing or hammer) is essential. Short-term bias is bullish, but with caution—if SPY holds $560, it could retest $570 or break higher. A drop below $556 invalidates the bullish outlook.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BlackCandleTrader
Inflation Adjusted Market Valuation since 2007 max liquidityHere's a loose estimation (using basic compound interest over time delta) of what the market would be worth with adjusted inflation if liquidity remained constant since 2007. Inflation adjusted value estimated through the yearly growth % of the market adjusted for inflation and averaged with general inflation trends from 2000-2025 at a ~85% inflation, year by year avg 85/25 = ~3.4%. (hard to get exact numbers so include a +-10% error at a 90% confidence interval) What does this tell us? We are above peak value of 520, in consideration of the stimulus being applied over time in buy backs and inflating the market over the last 15+ years, we have a high probability chance that we are at peak investment liquidity and upward movement can be delayed for the next 5-10 years in the form of a major correction to market valuation. 1 minute ago Trade active Inf Est since 2007 using adjusted 6.7% year by year inflation Peak Yr 2007 2015 2020 2022 2025 M.Val 162 213 340 475 613 Inf Est 0 272 376 428 520 Why does the M. Val eventually exceed the Inflation Estimated Value? Consider the buy backs from stimulus that entered the market after GFC. 1) In no way will they max out on buy backs immediately 2) Buy backs over time guarantee consistent upward market price movement 3) That stimulation is not included in the Inf Est a. The Inflation Est is simply the max value in 2007 and its inflated relation today b. The Inflation Est is a control value that only shows existing liquidity in market At the time of 2007 excluding buy back stimulus event
AMEX:SPY
by SuperScholarXYZ
Spy Game Plan for today If the market continues its bullish momentum, we could see a retest of the 200-day moving average around $570. This level will act as key resistance, and a breakout above could open the door for new highs. However, if Powell’s tone leans hawkish or the minutes reflect a more cautious stance on rate cuts, we could see AMEX:SPY crack below its current trendline. In that scenario, look for potential support and a bounce around the low $550s—specifically in the $552–$550 zone.
AMEX:SPYLong
by selfishtrader007
SPY/SPX: FOMC. Do we get rate cuts or do we even get a hike?!TA on SPY but I also like playing SPX. Was seeing this as either a rising wedge, and if play (with FOMC etc.) can touch and retest 551.41 then back move back up to test 562.81 and to out at 567.85 IF market reacts well to FOMC, maybe ATH? If not, we actually fulfill that rising wedge to 543.54 with a small gap to touch/retest at 534.54 I may sit sidelines until FOMC to catch the move and waves. Always wait for the set up to come to you! One of the rules I try to keep following but I break. Let me know what you think. Will continue to update as it the week progresses. Again, do your own DD. Not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by sweatytrigger
SPY EOW TARGETS! SPY EOW TARGETS 585 bullish 551 bearish 530 oh no Bullish Bias till 555 is broken 1. To maintain a healthy uptrend SPY will need a retracement to 558-560 2. While reddit is panicking I'll be looking at a short swing trade, stop below 555 and targeting 570-573 3. 570 will prob be a chop zone before another liquidity swoop lower, then after or leading up to FOMC we pump to 585 TL;DR Bullish Bias for now, look for long setups, catch a swing play once retracement to 560ish is complete
AMEX:SPYLong
by Dacubemastr
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its meeting on May 6–7, despite political pressure to lower it. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Economic Indicators on Tap This week brings several important economic data releases, including the U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the economy amid ongoing trade tensions and concerns over consumer confidence. 💼 Corporate Earnings in Focus Major companies such as Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Ford ( NYSE:F ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. Investors will be watching these reports for signs of how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 🌐 Global Events and Leadership Changes Europe is set for significant leadership changes, with Friedrich Merz expected to be confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. Additionally, the Vatican’s conclave to elect a new pope convenes on Wednesday. These events, along with the 80th anniversary of VE Day, may have broader implications for global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 5: 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (April Final) 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April) 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 📅 Thursday, May 8: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March) 📅 Friday, May 9: 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
US Outperformance, when will it end?The US market has consistently outperformed global markets since the global financial crisis, it has also outperformed since the tech bubble. A portion of this can be attributed to a strong dollar (many markets outperformed in local currency). However this strong dollar performance may be coming to an end. In addition there are structural reasons why the US has and may continue to outperform: 1. A larger weighting to higher growth sectors such as technology, communication services and a lower weight to lower growth sectors such as energy and materials. 2. Better rule of law, better focus on shareholder returns, less crowding from the government and state owned enterprises lowering the return of markets. (EM SOEs as an example) 3. US attracting global talent and fostering innovation. "The smartest person in any subject will likely go to the US' So how can the US consistently underperform given these things? 1. Well for one the dollar may start to be a worse performing currency, it seems the current administration wants that. This not only lowers the performance of the US compared to global markets it also lowers the foreign inflows to US assets and also benefits EMs with dollar denominated debts. 2. The idea that the US attracts the best talent and fosters innovation may be declining with the current cultural attacks on immigration and the federal government spending cuts impacting research projects. 3. Global markets currently have a lower weighting to high growth sectors however this may not continue and instead we may start to see the marginal weight of sectors going to higher growth sectors instead of lower growth sectors. 4. The darling companies in most countries may list in their local markets instead of in the US. (Seeing the UK ease regulations of share classes, Chinese companies not welcomed in the US, European companies redomiciling back to Europe) 5. Valuations, Valuations, Valuations. Gun to your head: Next ten years would the multiple become a headwind or tailwind for the US market? What about for global markets? US trades at roughly 21x forward earnings whereas the UK trades at 12x, Eurozone at 14x, Japan at 13.5x, EM at 12x and China at 11x. If after 10 years the US trades at an 18x multiple and the UK as an example trades at a 15x valuation that would be an annualized headwind of 1.5% for the US and an annualized tailwind of 2.3% for the UK. Add to that the effect of low starting valuations on yield (US net shareholder yield is close to 2% whereas the UK yields 4%). Just rough numbers on performance for US vs UK next 10 years. US: -1.5% multiple change, 2% yield, 10% earnings growth = 10.5% UK: 2.3% multiple change, 4% yield, 6% earnings growth, 1% currency = 13.3% Everyone is over allocated to the US and is under allocated outside the US. Currently the US represents around 20% of global GDP however it represents 70% of global market cap. 70 cents of every dollar in the equity market is in and goes to the US. Will this likely increase or decrease as a share? The next question becomes who will take that share if it falls? Investing outside the US does not mean: Investing in markets with bad shareholder friendliness Investing in markets with a history of fraud Investing in markets with notorious related party transactions Investing in markets with high starting valuations. Some markets such as China can have the first 3 issues applied to it, some markets such as India may frankly have all of these issues. Some markets in Europe may have the first and last aspect. And some markets likely have none of these issues. I propose Japan, UK and Northern Europe. History is only a guide however the history of returns involved one of the single best economic performances of any country coming from the US which resulted in an amazing stock market with great returns, this is not guaranteed. Historically stocks return nominally 10% and on a real basis 7% which can be decomposed to 3% yield and 7% earnings growth with virtually no multiple change (on long enough time horizons) when you start at a high valuation the yield component is lower and you need higher earnings growth to compensate. And on a much longer time horizon earnings growth is what really matters. Earnings growth does not exist out of no where, it usually tracks nominal gdp growth + a margin increase from operations and or sector compositions. Nothing is guaranteed, your next maximum drawdown is in the future, expect the unexpected and keep invested as the global debt bubble will likely be inflated away.
AMEX:SPY
by walmutlaq2003
SPY at 3 important event! POC, 200 ema and 30 days reversalHi All SPY is at an interesting intersection: 1) a month from where it crashed and reversed entirely 2) At point of control (POC) from the top in Feb 3) at 200 ema In Aug 22 SPY reversed from POC, at other times it found support or broke out with a gap My opinion is, it will continue going up till 13th May (date when CPI is published). Nobody knows for sure how much tariff will impact CPI. It cannot as bad as we had during covid.
AMEX:SPYLong
by krisoz
SPY .. Using Fibs a bit differently, like in Reverse squaredSo most people are used to the typical, "drag from bottom to a top or top to bottom and see where the percentages(ratios) lay"...well I kinda did it a little differently....as my name suggests, its a psychotic technique...but it hit some funky levels eh? You take a high to a high, or in this case a low to a low and then you use the reverse function on the settings to show what it would be like: Theory-- To understand a fib retrace you have to retrace something, but what if the bottom you are looking at may not be a true corrective bottom. Well, pick to pivot bottoms, as seen above and then connect them. But the reverse function allows for the "retace" to be calculated for another set of bottoms to come or if you may be at a new high peak. Its by no means random cause you are following a retrace but using a multiplier and two pivots (be them highs or lows) to see what the mathematical nature of those two lows mean to your future charting. As follows... are those two lows I used really worth using for further analysis, well seeing how many times those fib lines hit seriously important places, they can be. But also, it means that you can connect those two and then do other funky things with them, which I will show below, to check "angular Fib Channeling" for future price action levels too. If it all makes no sense, then answer me this,....you ever do something so out of the ordinary one day and something just clicked into place- like weirdly accurately; you find out there was an entirely different way to go about the thing you did and it arrives at the same mathematical conclusion...that is what I excel in- finding the weird, but working ideas. 4hr view: angular Fib Channeling on the daily and 4hr respectively: and the more funky way using algorithmic numeration with Fib Channeling: (same blue arrows as previous fib channel regular settings, but changed numbers to my own mathematically derived...see what I mean that math can get you to the same place even with many different avenues of choice available) ------- and lastly...to find angles if you arent able to: You use the date and time combo measuring tool to find the exact square of two pivots you want to check the angle of...you go from the one point to the other, and then drop down along the same vertical of point two until you get to the exact value price of point one. Then you simple use the fib tool to set the angle from point one to two, then drop down vertically to the third point and there you go...see, works quite nicely...also using my custom number again: 4hr:
AMEX:SPY
by CYQOTEK
AAPL Compression Before the Break? 🔥Alright, here’s my breakdown on AAPL as I walk through the chart from the daily timeframe, zoom into the hourly, and then connect it with the GEX map for a directional play this week — especially with macro eyes watching SPY and the Trump/investor meeting narrative floating around. 🟩 Daily Timeframe – Holding Uptrend but Needs a Spark
On the daily chart, AAPL is still holding above the trendline and stacking candles inside a minor consolidation. The MACD is trying to curl back up and Stoch RSI looks like it’s reloading after last week’s overbought run. This type of compression right under resistance often leads to breakout setups if buyers step in — especially if SPY keeps grinding up like it did into close today. I’m keeping $215 and $220 in sight as those are the first higher timeframe targets if bulls really get control. ⏱ 1H Timeframe – Clean Structure, But Rejected at Resistance
Zooming into the hourly, you can see how clean AAPL has been. The recent move up tapped the GEX9 and GEX10 zones around $213–$215 before sellers pushed price down hard into the $209–$210 region. That rejection was healthy, volume surged, but now price is hovering near HVL ($205), which is the GEX-projected short-term support. If bulls defend $205 and reclaim $210 tomorrow morning, we could be in for a squeeze toward $213.50–$215 again. 📈 GEX + Options Data – A Battle Near GEX Walls
GEX levels are dense here. That $213.53–$215 band is the highest positive NET GEX wall — a heavy resistance area based on call positioning. Below, PUT walls are stacked at $205 and $200, with the -48% support at $200 acting like a trapdoor if bears take control. But here’s what’s interesting: * IVR is low (40.1), IV is steady, and the Options Oscillator shows some mixed interest. * If the market mood improves (and SPY breaks out), this could become a gamma squeeze magnet toward $220. * On the flip side, if AAPL can’t reclaim $210 early tomorrow, we may drift to retest $205 or even get a nasty flush to $200, especially with earnings risk nearby. 💡 What I’m Thinking:
This looks like a coiled spring. If SPY continues to rise and the Trump/investor meeting adds positive sentiment, AAPL might ride the flow toward $213–$215 and beyond. I’m watching the $210 reclaim as a trigger — no entry unless that happens. Options-wise, calls above $215 are aggressive but could pay off on momentum. Safer trades lie near the money for weekly scalps. If AAPL fails $205, I might flip bias for a quick PUT scalp down to $200. 🛠 Suggested Trade Setups:
Bullish: If price breaks and holds above $210, look to long toward $213.50–$215 with stop under $207.
Bearish: If $205 fails, PUTs targeting $200 with a stop over $208 could work. Ideal setup would be a fake push toward $210 that gets rejected. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk accordingly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY QQQ NQ/ES 30 De Abril 2025SPY/ES Gamma Chart Analysis – April 30, 2025 Key Insights Based on SpotGamma Levels, Volume Profile & Option Walls: 🔴 Market Context: SPY at 544.52, showing a significant drop of -1.78%. The price has broken down from the upper gamma range and is now testing key support zones. Heavy Put Walls and Call Walls are defining psychological and gamma-driven price magnets. 🔵 Zones & Price Targets: Zone Type Level Description / Reaction Expectation 🔺 Resistance 550 Strong Call Wall & Put Wall, likely a ceiling. Reversal or rejection expected. 🟨 Sell Zone 545 Marked as "Possible Sell Zone", coincides with Put Wall (1) / Call Wall (4) – watch for short entries. 🟩 Buy/Sell Zone 543.70 Neutral area, can serve as battle zone for bulls/bears. Volume shelf area. 🔻 Support 540 Converging Put Wall (3) / Call Wall (5) – strong gamma support, watch for bounce or breakdown. 🎯 Target Levels (Bearish Plan): Target # Level Description 1️⃣ 545 Minor drop target, near-term scalp if price rejects from above. 2️⃣ 543 Medium target if selling pressure continues. 3️⃣ 540 Major target, strong support – key test for further downside continuation. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Lesser Probability Today): Reclaim of 548–550 zone may trigger long setups with potential targets: 548 ES 550 ES 🧠 Strategic Takeaways: "Options positioning is pointing to downside pressure unless bulls reclaim 545-548 area quickly." Ideal setup: Short bounces into 545 with stops above 548. Targets staggered from 543 to 540 based on gamma support layers. Vol Trigger: 550, showing the zone where volatility starts increasing – another bearish sign.
AMEX:SPY
by JCAVGROUP