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ISHARES TRUSTII

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TLT trade ideas

Pennant (Bullish) | 10% move possible"Pennant (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on iShares 20 Year Treasury (TLT:NASDAQ). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $106.40 to the range of $115.00 - $117.00. The pattern formed over 8 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: The price seems to be resuming a sharp rally after taking a brief pause. A bullish Pennant pattern occurs during a dynamic market rally, representing a brief period of indecision before running off again in the same direction. The pattern consists of two converging trend lines with diminishing volume, and is confirmed when the price breaks through the upper boundary to resume the advance.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by moneytalkstome
1
Somebody knows something? TLT high volume spike. TLT high volume spike, after short term bullish run. Declining rate on the us treasury bonds in the broader market have given the 20 year TLT bond fund a boost over the last week. As the rates have been declining on the anticipation of a fed funds pause, the value of long term bonds has been increasing, or moreover moving up for the unrealized loss positions which is what sent SVB to the grave. Meanwhile; Chairman Powell announced an increased fed fund rate of .25% higher, despite the anticipation of a pause from the general public. At the same time they have proposed a general backstop to the banking system, guaranteeing a full discount swap for these underwater bond assets held by the banks, and guaranteeing depositors their funds are safe to prevent further bank runs. These actions appear bearish in the general outlook, and in character regarding the necessity of raising rates yet again, as well as the necessity of proving a backstop for the banks so as not fail. Of course, many have taken these action as a sign of bullishness, as a sign that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve board will be pausing soon, as he mentioned this to be the case for the next meeting. The fed funds rate is now 4.83 %. The TLT high volme spike, on a short red candle is indicative of high interest to the short side at this price level, indicating that the potential future move for rates is even higher still; forecasting that long term bonds will remain underwater; and the banking crises with the potential to continue into the near and medium future. These are simply my opinions. I am curious to hear what you all think. i am open to dissent, corrections of my errors, and alternative opinions, as long as they are evidenced, logical, and factual. what do you think?
NShort
by International_Leeroy
TLT: Trade Idea Before More Fed QEThe signal I was waiting for to start buying bonds was whenever the Federal Reserve stopped or slowed raising interest rates. The Fed held another rate policy meeting this week and only raised the Federal Funds Rate by +.25% instead of the +.75% that had been the trend. We've gone from seeing a +.50% hike in Dec, to +.25% in Jan to +.25% this week after 4 prior straight +.75% hikes in mid to late 2022. Now that banks are failing and layoffs are starting to tick up, this weeks rate hike was likely the last for a bit unless inflation doesn't stay flat or go down before the next Fed rate meeting. You can search "2023 FOMC meetings" for the full schedule. My thought here is that within the next 12-18 months the Federal Reserve will lower rates and begin buying treasuries again(aka money printing), and I think the time to start front-running that trade in to bonds is now for those who like to accumulate a larger position over time. The best way for the average trader or phone app investor to get into bonds is via "TLT", the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, which tracks the 20-year treasury bond price rather than the interest rate on the 20-year bond. As rates go up, bond prices go down and vice versa. Right now I'm betting on rates having topped out(or close to it) and that bond prices are going to go back up over the next year or so as recession fears kick in and stock prices go lower. We've had a deep and long yield curve inversion to boot and those almost always precede a US recession. I have a recent post showing the yield curve inversion vs stocks vs US recessions for reference. TLT price is trading at decade lows and holding above $100 after a dip down to $90. Seeing the price of any asset hold above nice round numbers is always a good sign, psychologically traders like round numbers. The lower PPO momentum indicator is showing signs of a potential reversal in momentum from negative to short-term positive, and this is a monthly chart so it would be a significant event. A bullish crossover is what we want to see which is when the green signal line crosses above the purple base line in the lower PPO indicator. That would indicate a short-term return to bullish momentum on a monthly basis.
NLong
by PrepForProfit
4
Could this volatile move in bonds lead to a market crash?I’m honestly not sure what to think of this chart and it is concerning me. I was playing around with TLT and MOVE (a kind VIX for bonds) and I noticed that multiplying them together created these extended spikes that have correlated with market crashes in the past. We only have the two crashes to go buy, so this method hasn’t been tested enough to be that reliable, but the way that it has broke out this week has me concerned that something really big and bad is around the corner. I thought that maybe the market was already crashing in the past as these were spiking, but that isn’t true: SPY was just starting to make a down trend both times, and likely most thought at the time that it was just a normal pullback in SPY. One thing I will be watching out for is to go long on the market if that resistance is tapped and also get out of my TLT. I generally have a feeling when looking at this though that they have completely broke the market now (it if wasn't already broken enough), and the wheels are set in motion for shit to hit the fan some day in the future. Here’s a pic too, because I don’t like how the interactive chart gets squished sometimes:
N
by Lynxys
2
Mortgage Interest Rates - Fork In The RoadCeiling of resistance and floor of support are terms commonly used in technical analysis to describe price levels in financial markets that exhibit high levels of buying or selling pressure. A ceiling of resistance is a price level at which a stock or other financial instrument has had difficulty moving above in the past. It is a level where there is significant selling pressure that prevents the price from going higher. Each time the price approaches this level, it tends to get rejected, and the price moves back down. If the price manages to break through this level, it can be a signal of a bullish trend as more buyers come into the market. On the other hand, a floor of support is a price level at which a stock or other financial instrument has had difficulty moving below in the past. It is a level where there is significant buying pressure that prevents the price from going lower. Each time the price approaches this level, it tends to get supported, and the price moves back up. If the price manages to break through this level, it can be a signal of a bearish trend as more sellers come into the market. It's important to note that these levels are not fixed and can change over time as market conditions and sentiment evolve. Technical analysts use various tools and techniques, such as trendlines and moving averages, to identify these levels and track their movements over time. However there is a decent probability that we may see a reversal, as it would definitely be a welcome sigh of relief.
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by PayItForwardLending
TLT - iShares Long-Bond ETF / US30 - Scalp Short, Switch LongThe TLT 20+ year bond ETF has, at this point, been bearish since August. Personally, I thought after the late December-early January push upwards that TLT would have made a new high before dropping for a while because yields were trading a lot lower than the Fed rate, but that move never transpired and the shares have instead been mucking around. I don't specifically like this price action for puts/shorts, because there's two big factors that make me believe TLT is going up: 1. On the monthly bars, there's nowhere lower for TLT to go, unless you believe a new all time low is coming: Monthly The 2014-2015 lows were taken during last year's bear pulses, in fact. The same can be said for the weekly candles: Weekly When taken in light of the fact that TLT has not traded like it wants to go down for the last three months, this really is a spot that I think a trader has to either stay flat or look for a long at lower prices. However, there's a big tell that there's a premium short scalp opportunity manifest in US30, the 30-year US Treasury Bond: US30 30-year US Treasury Bond - Daily The key factors are: 1. July of '21 was a complete gap fill 2. December of '22 made a lower low 3. The enormous November CPI surprise pump candle gap has been left untouched 4. The '22 year end retrace left the psychological 99.xx level untouched 5. The retrace on TLT to $99.60 was only a sweep of range equilibrium, evidenced by the fact that a new high has not been set. The FOMC candle failed to set a new high, too. And all of that combines to lead me to believe that the US30 has in the range of 6-10 percent to retrace, and imminently, which would drive TLT down by $7-11. Moreover, a $10 raid on TLT would make a lot of sense if there's about to be a significant moon mission in the markets. It would take out the December pivot lows, rebalance the CPI-candle gap, and give permanent bears a chance to lose their accounts going short at the bottom. But I believe if you're going to go short here, you have to treat it as a scalp. Because there's no downside left besides setting a new all time low on the ETF, which mirrors the bond market in its own manifestation, chances are we go up. Moreover, with the Fed clearly slowing the pace of their rate hikes, there's no reason to believe bond yields will exceed 5% for more than a few days until late 2023 at the earliest. $98-95 TLT would be a long with targets at $120 and $130. When the markets start to go up again, you have to avoid being short, but you also need to be super, super careful being long. The reason is that the situation in China with Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party being sacked by the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic is many, many, many times worse than we're being led to believe by establishment media and social influencers. The number of deaths in China has been terrifying, and whenever you're dealing with so many excess deaths, a country is going to lose a certain percentage of its engineers, technicians, and supply chain. This, in my opinion, is the real reason companies like Apple are moving their production out of China. So one day in this lifetime of ours when the CCP falls like the USSR did, it will happen overnight, and China daytime is US night time, meaning the US equities and bond markets will go gap down, but this time they'll just stay gap down. Moreover, the world will change when the Party is gone. The normalcy we've become accustomed to and this way of living as human beings will all change. But the transition won't be so pleasant. It's very important to value virtue and do your best to cultivate your heart. Atheism and the theory of evolution are unscientific poisons. Never forget this.
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by LordWrymouth
Neutral/ Shorting Opportunity on TLT 20 Yr Bond Fund. TLT Risk ON/OFF Indicator. I was seeing the TLT rapidly decline, while 10 year yield rates are increasing. TLT is the 20 year bond fund. As short term rates are increasing, more people purchase of the 10 year bond, and less of the 20 year bond resulting in declining demand and declining price. Many are speculating the Federal Reserve Board may raise rates 50 bps or .5% to curb stubborn inflation. This would only make short term bonds more attractive than long term bonds, and there will be more of market for short term bonds. T think it could go either way 25 or 50 bps, and I am leaning toward 25 bps increase on March 15-16 by the Federal Reserve Board that the FOMC meeting. Personal Anecdotal Opinionated Analysis conducted with the help of Mary. This is also known as the yield curve inversion, when the yields of short term bonds are higher than long term bonds. This means that the dollar is getting stronger relative to other assets, and more attractive to hold compared to other assets, declining price of the other assets. shorter time horizon certainties are favored over long term time horizon certainties. Declining prices means that your dollar is getting more valuable relative to those same assets, when simply held in comparison to them. Less printing from the federal reserve reduces the supply of the money, while demand is increasing. This means the potential total accreted future value of the money locked in the 20 year bonds is less attractive than the potential money locked inside of the short term bonds,
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by loves2spooge