Long TLT at 116.03www.tradingview.com
At a strong support level, buying TLT with a larger position of 5% here for all of the reasons circled in my chart, as well as the fundamentals that made the technicals possible.
Seeing what happened following the great financial crisis, 2016 and during covid in 2020, we can see a major run up in the TLT. Expecting the same over the medium term.
Also, RSI and MACD levels show support for buying.
TLT trade ideas
Will Superman (Powell) Return" No maybe in 2023Well well well here we are again now that your fake heroes have finally given up on calling inflation transitory which even a a circus monkey to tell you that wasn't going to happen we Can begin with the bloodbath. Well not here necessarily that will begin with the S&P 500 it will make sense soon enough. I will start with my condolences for those retirees with their 60/30 getting hammered both ways for those doing good keep it going baby. The boys at FED just started removing money from the markets this the beginning of more quantitative tightening measures to come. Anyone believing that this can hold if it goes to 130 it's just pure fractional wrongness while we are oversold The FED is no longer buying therefore no reason for this to make a turnaround we have been on a downturn since March 9th 2020 and people would rather risk money on the market than to buy these bonds even if the S&P were to capitulate to 3500 YES I know 600 points that's what happens when markets are flooded with cheap money. My best case scenario is bonds go 5-8% up I have a range of put options with expiration's in August September and some in January 2023. But I'm a cheapskate so I'm waiting for those puts to get a little cheap its in my best interest to do so.
(Remember money is made when people refuse to think that bad things can happen and they WILL This is just the beginning BABY)
Traditional portfolio strategy for retirement... not so hot now!The candles below represent a 60/40 mix of TLT and SPY, bonds and stocks. SPY (orange) and TLT (blue) by comparison show than neither asset class is helping to overcome the bad performance of the other. By comparison, moving money to cash (UUP) looks like it would have been a great short-term move against inflation.
Bear Flag in Bond ETF?Bonds have been in a steady downtrend all year. And now, after a period of consolidation, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF may be set to continue lower.
This main pattern on this chart is the modest rebound over the last three weeks. Given the preceding four months of downside, it could be a classic bearish flag. The current drop also represents a potential break of the flag, which could bring sellers from the sidelines.
Second, notice how the stochastic oscillator recently jumped to its most overbought reading of the year.
Third is the low price of $111.90 from late 2018. Will traders look for that level as support?
Finally, macro conditions may favor downside in TLT. Yesterday brought strong U.S. consumer confidence and higher European inflation. Today featured robust manufacturing data. Non-farm payrolls are due Friday, followed by CPI on June 10 and the Federal Reserve meeting on June 15.
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$TLT weekly on watch$TLT has seen multiple touches of the 114.30 level that have resulted in a reversal. Would keep your eyes on $TLT heading into the weekend. This Bond ETF Offers Bears An Alternative due to its inverse correlation to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY). The fund tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the U.S. Treasury with maturities of 20 years or more.
TLT may return to 132-135 neutral zone as a flight to safety.TNX 10-yr yield may have peaked out as investors rotate to the safety of bonds in the 120-114
accumulation zone. TLT has completed a big M-pattern stopping at almost perfect FIBO levels. This ABC wave has already made a 300% retracement from the ATH of 173.89 made last 9Mar2020 before pandemic striked.
The 132-135 zone will be some sort of neutral area for determining inflation or deflation. It is also the neck zone of the M-pattern. As it fell quickly from this zone, the rebound will also be very fast looking at the volume profile that has a large space in between.
5 impulse waves & 3 ABC corrective waves have end this EW cycle & a new cycle shall begin as TLT returns to the baseline of my slanted FIBO CHANNEL where wave 3 had started at Feb2011.
Not trading advice
TLT - 2 Hour PThe 20 Year ETF Bond has declined significantly in 2022.
Longer-term I anticipate 6% as the Primary PO for the 10 Year
Note.
TLT will head well below 100 into October 2023, breaking 92s
will provide an immediate break - an immense break.
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Sub 50 is an absolute on Mid Curve to 6%.
Declining from 173.69 to 112.62 is simply the 1st in a Series of
lower lows ahead.
I do, however, anticipate a counter-trend to 2.12 to 2.26.
TLT remains the JUNK ETF, chased by the inexperienced traders
seeking safety.
Hopefully, this herd is beginning to see the Cliff ahead as the
Bond Buffalo will be run up the plains mesa to their ultimate
deaths.
132 should limit the Upside ST.
TLT - Target Hit !!! 🥳🎈🎈I first called this back in September that TLT would hit $113 (then $114) and now in May my target is hit.
This was another call where I received comments that the chart doesn't matter because XYZ but really the chart does matter as this was just a 1:1 zig zag correction.
So what next?
Well... I dont know currently because a fibonacci projection is just a landmark for a potential reversal. It doesn't itself prove a reversal though there will probably be a lot of short covering in this area.
Also just below @ 111.9 there is a low from 2018 and there will be short covering there also which could potentially be a bottoming area.
However, from a charting perspective this can still go lower. There has been nothing noteworthy for the bullish case as yet.
And I had a charting comment on a previous page that questioned how indicators could be so oversold but not produce a bounce. And well the reason for that is because this could be a new trend unfolding.
It is worth noting though that the RSI here is slightly lower than previous low and there could be a reversal.
But all this depends on what type of wave this is currently. The potential C wave has been much steeper than than the A and that could mean it will form a 1:1.618 which would see it hit $95.
Or if there is a shakeout reversal at the lows here than that may prove to be a good buy signal. I'll wait and see.
Not advice.
TLT MegphoneWe established a lear thesis for Bonds Back in July of 2021.
It is tracking and trading in Trend.
The trend is clear concise and direct.
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3.6 Interemdiate to 6%.
3.265 os the pivot.
Overbought?
Oversold?
No such thing in 40 year Trend reversals.
A complete collapse of the Equity Complex, might drive rates to 2%...
Lovely.