TLT trade ideas
tltprevious discussed tlt going to $182 from the area we've just hit
change of plans. i think we go to $157 from here to put in this last sub-wave 5 into wave (1) before the retracement into wave (2) on the higher degree ($141 area).
once that wave (2) is in, i whole heartedly expect a seriously impulsive move to the $180 area which should shake up the markets really nicely.
tltr;
subwave 5 target = $157
previous tlt posts leading up to this:
TLT Patterns repeatExpecting yields to rise Monday then back down for a week or two.
Bought some TLT puts. If things go as expected, then we get a bear trap Monday as the market (at least tech) will do a small gap down.
Consumer Sentiment: Uh Oh.This morning, the UMCSI printed a 70.2, which is the worst number since March of last year and, prior to that, the end of 2011. If you were wondering why TLT is up 1.4% today, and XLP is crushing, while XLY and XLF are getting hurt, it's because a slowdown in consumer sentiment is REALLY bad for inflation expectations and retail spending. This further plays into the deflationary trends that have been winning the recent fight in treasuries, and explains why tech seems unconcerned. Consumer Staples is strong off of the back of relative valuation.
If you're not paying attention, this one reading was simple to miss, but we think it's going to be driving market sentiment over the next few weeks. Fundamental sentiment appears to be shifting from a GDP point of view, and we are much less bullish on equities as a whole than we were 4 hours ago.
Cheers!
TLT Bouncing Off 0.382 FibFib retracement analysis
TLT bounced off 0.5 and broke 0.382.
Today, it is hitting the 0.382 fib resistance.
Expecting it to come back down to 0.236
$TLT touching on support MA50TLT has just touched on the ma50 line @145.71 which is also the top on June 18.
With gold out of favour and USD going up, the smart money is pouring into the treasury bond. this is a good time to collect some bond for the next 1-2 years.
Interest rate should stay low for the mean time and equities should be hot for the coming year.
TLT junk bonksBonds have likely bottomed 135-136, this is more confirmation that we are likely heading for deflation not inflation. Smart money are heading into bonds
TLT new downtrend patternWith the slower/stalled reopening, money isn’t spreading out across industries and the globe as quickly as the FED planned last year. This will cause high inflation readings for longer, bond yields to rise and TLT to fall. Fear of the inflation report on the 11th seems to be playing out.
tlt update ⚠⚠⚠i don't know what the story is going to be this time, but the charts are all starting to point to a deep market correction which starts in the next couple of days and lasts a couple of months.
don't want to be that guy who's all like "da markets are going to crash", but be careful peoples.
Closed (IRA): TLT August 20th 143 Covered Calls... for a 142.60 credit/contract.
Comments: Hit my order to take this off at or near max today. (The max would be 143.00, so the order I stuck out thereI took it off .40 short of that). An über long-running covered call setup with the last acquisition of shares around $110/share. (See Post Below). Unfortunately, I didn't keep good track of short call premium over the years (yes, years), but I made at least the difference between the last acquisition at $110 and what I got out of it today or 32.60 ($3260/contract) plus the 7.93 in credit per contract I kept track of since the beginning of the year. 32.60 + 7.93 = 40.53 ($4053/contract) (plus, of course, those smidgeonly monthly divvies).
I'll look to re-up if it ever starts paying decently again (e.g., >3.0% annualized), but I may be waiting a very, very long time for that happen. It's paying a scant 1.481% annualized now.
Bonds - TLT BullishIdea for TLT:
- Price is in quite an elegant ML Channel (upperbound).
- Rising Volume and Volatility.
- Over key MAs (holding trend).
Bonds too, only go up in time, and can be interchanged with equities when there is a bear market in stocks. Smart money already piling in (hedge or predicting a stock bear market). We can play the bonds game soon.
GLHF
- DPT
TLT Breaks Out of Descending Wedge to seek new All-Time Highs?Using the same fractal analysis method I used to forecast the BTC dump & dead-cat bounce, I began watching US Treasuries as TLT was set to break out of a descending wedge.
Now that it is has, I'm publishing the idea for others to weigh in on.
If the pattern plays out we could see new all time highs; which suggests we could be entering another period of recession much like the financial crisis of '08.
I do not currently have a position & this is not financial advice. Just sharing observations as they occur.
If you wanted to play the pattern, TMF(long) & TMV(short) are leveraged ETFs you can use.
TLT repeating pattern. Another trap coming?TLT 's pattern of higher highs and higher lows seems very obvious. But as a wise man said, "if it's obvious, it's obviously wrong."
So will we see another trap/shake-out occur before it keeps going?
Or will this be where TLT pulls back further while the market resumes bullishness.
What do you think?
TLT accelerating, money runs to safety, waiting for the short.COVID, debt ceiling, drought, $DXY - A few of many things causing this TLT rise. Planning the government response and market effect.
MARKET ALPHA'S GOLDEN CROSS - TLTNASDAQ:TLT
Here is my take on a common trading strategy that uses the 50 and 200 moving averages to indicate a trend change.
In my version, I use two multi time frame EMA's. One runs at an input of 26 and the other runs at 104.
Typically these kind of crosses will involve a retest and sometimes may fail, but if the trend holds true in a reversal we can usually see pretty large gains.
As always, don't get over confident and always know your stop loss and take profit levels.
Reflation Is DeadSomething happened this morning that I think is worth talking about - the official death of the categorical re-flation trade. Thanks Delta Variant and UMCSI!
Over the last eight months, there's been a lot of prognosticating about the state of inflation within the economy, coupled with fears that the Fed had gotten it wrong. Runaway Inflation was considered a key monetary risk, and the CPI printed 5% YoY last month. As a result of all this inflation talk, in combination with COVID-induced supply shortages, commodities have been on a 14 month bull run from the lows last March, with no signs of stopping. Conversely, the ARKK-style bucket has been languishing for months, given the speculative nature of its future cash flows, and thus, reduced NPV (thanks to higher TLT). Today, however, the market is sending a clear sign that these trends are over. Rates are plunging (signaling lower market inflation expectations), and "Real" assets are getting smacked as their perceived value (in less powerful future dollars) comes back into line.
It's one of the main reasons that QQQ is down less than SPY today - Delta Variant fears boost tech / WFH trades. The same stocks which also benefit from lower rates. The UMCSI also leads weaker consumer spending, which adds up to a drop in demand -> less inflationary pressure.
The thing is, if you dig into the numbers, this should not be a shock. Hell, a good chunk of the CPI 5% YoY print had to do with the increasing price of used cars. Aka, who cares?
But let's back up. That explains why oil is down 5% today. Why are my other stocks down?
For some context, since our launch on July 1st, our Equity Macro view (freely available on our site) has been the following:
"Valuations remain rather high on a TTM basis for the overall market, as a combination of COVID related denominator issues and monetary / fiscal policy numerator boosters throw the ratios completely out of whack. While some have written off these values as "distortions", we here at Discordia believe that the market is still a good deal overvalued. Even if you believe the broad analyst community and completely throw out 2020 and 2021 numbers, the NTM S&P guidance puts us trading at 22x earnings, which is still a significant premium to the market's long term average. Some of this premium can be explained by the strong business sentiment and economic climate, and some can be attributed to inflationary expectations, which are also higher than long term averages. We believe, along with the Fed, that the recent bump in inflation will be transitory. We also think that there will be a slowdown in business sentiment sometime in the early fall, as shortages clear up and pricing pressures ease. Lumber and other ag's serve as a a leading indicator of this dynamic, in our view -- lumber having dropped almost 60% in the last 8 weeks."
As you can see, a drop in inflationary expectations immediately takes an axe to the premium that's being afforded this extended market.
Over the long term, as it turns out, deflation is reallllly hard to avoid in a technologically advancing society like ours.
Finally, you mix in the real-world potential that Delta has to send us back 12 months, and you can see why we are where we are today.
Think NLS and PTON being up is a fluke?
Cheers!
MARKET ALPHA WATCHLIST - TLTSymbol: NASDAQ:TLT
Indicators
Laguerre RSI
2 x Multi-Time Frame EMA
Comments: The FED has been pumping a substantial amount of liquidity in the US economy via creation of and then purchasing of bonds. The problem became more complicated as Michael Burry revealed his massive short position against the bond market.
Michael Burry was not the only one shorting the bonds. The decline of the dollar was a clear indication that the Fed efforts would lead to further decline in bond prices.
The bonds look to be unraveling as the word "taper" has been a focal point of the fed and they are actively having meetings about having meetings... so that is definitely promising.
$TLT to around $154 BULLISH!Expecting $TLT to go to around $154 before a small pullback with a start to a solid uptrend.
TLT updateshort the golden zone at 147ish
could get all the way up to 149 if they push it through the gz.
target = 143.50
update to previous post:
