TLT Prepare to LongDemand below Sideway Consolidation
Entry 147
stop 145
Target 157
Plan A: Sell PUT under 147 for now.
Plan B: Buy Call spread in the demand Zone
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
TLT trade ideas
Leading Indicators Part 2 - an early warningIn this second set of LEading indicators...
The TLT (Bonds ETF) see a sell off trend starting... this is actually bullish for the equities market
The TIPS appears to have possibly topped.
The VIX and VVIX are bullishly divergent. IMHO, due for a spike soon.
Overall... bullish until it hits the fan. It appears that we may be in for another surprise.
Just be cautious if you are bullish.
Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of YearTLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond...
(scroll for options play idea)
Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves.
This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63 , but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15.
Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb.
THE EASY LOOT PLAY:
|BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like)
or
TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk)
|BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth
Timing is key, don't jump the gun
DCJ | Jack
Correlation between BTC, TLT/JNK, and the Georgia Senate RunoffI've put this together after watching and reading over the weekend about the potential influence the Georgia Senate Runoff has on the market. Shown here is the correlation between BTC (or any other crypto for that matter) and the Treasury bond market to Junk bond index. People keep moving money into bonds showing FEAR in the market. Since bonds and the USDC has very little value due to the printing of the dollar, people are moving to Bitcoin to store their currency. IF the TLT/JNK were to break out we may see people move into Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and liquidate all of their stocks.
This is just my hypothesis and it may change depending on the latest news.
Bond etf year in review: O $139.69 H$179.70 L$135.91 C <=> $158Bond etf year in review:
O $139.69
H $179.70
L $135.91
C <=> $158
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, risk management
Beware of analysts motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
www.tradingview.com
ROLLING (IRA): TLT JAN 15TH 165 COVERED CALLS TO FEB 19TH 163... for a 1.00/contract credit.
Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). Rolling out at >50% max to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price, which is the 163 in February, currently valued at 1.66. I'm fine with being called away, since my last acquisition was around 110, and I think the buying power could be better utilized in something with higher implied volatility (30 day is currently 14.9% here). By the same token, that 1.66 for the 163 short call is 7.67 annualized or 4.9% as a function of stock price. That isn't hugely sexy, but when you add that to TLT's current yield of 1.56%, I could think of worse places to park my money for a little bit while I ramp up other positions in the new year.