USO; Breakout with Gap - BullishUS Oil is breaking out of the trend line with a gap up.
EP: 12.00
TP1: 12.63
USO trade ideas
Still heading lower..Looking at 78 to 88% down to a lower D point.
Observing 10.00
FYI I dont trade this. Just learning about new markets and behaviors and posting for back testing. Thanks everyone.
Oil Should Go Up From HereContrary to common beliefs, US shale is not gonna put oil to death, only to delay the inevitability of its rise ...
USO - Oil RetraceCharts signal a one or two day drop in oil prices. Going all or nothing on USO weekly $12 puts, only 20 contracts though.
Will flip the puts by COB tomorrow, win or lose.
Note: This is a quick flip, it may have another leg up long term. Depends on Iran, though I think both Iran and Trump are all talk with no balls.
Due for a bounce?Good day folks,
I think we could see a bounce in the oil futures. Attacks on tanker, G20 summit, OPEC, etc. this could move the market in the short term.
The VI is rising and so is the RSI.
My target is 12.00, then we'll see.
Thank you,
USO, not buying the bear marketOver the past month especially, crude has fallen into a bear market. Most of this bearish reasoning is coming from the U.S. EIA reports which is showing a large amount of undocumented crude which has resulted in a very swollen crude storage inventory, mostly all in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast.) There is strong reasoning to believe that this undocumented crude is actually plant condensate, which is not exactly an equivalent of crude oil yet being counted as such by weekly data.
If we deduct this probable phony glut of non-crude oil which is more likely some type of condensate, would we still be in a bear market? Possibly, a little bit at least, but that would have much to do with lower refinery run rates and Trump's trade wars.
Venezuelan imports to U.S. are down to zero. Canadian imports can only ramp up nominally by railroad. Saudi Arabia exports to U.S. have been extremely low, in the 400,000 barrels per day region and there isn't much alternative to recovering those lost barrels from elsewhere as heavier barrels have become a scarcity.
It is very possible that at the end of the month, EIA 914 monthly data corrects U.S. weekly data production numbers with a downward revision.
Texas' Permian basin rig count has fallen significantly, while the North American rig count overall is down big time; completions in the Permian have also not taken off, they have grown, which tells us that it seems unlikely the U.S. could have shot up to over 13,000,000 barrels per day in production. It is more likely in my opinion that we see a decline or flatlining in U.S. production as it appears many U.S. producers are focused on (attempting at least) to generate free cash flow to appease everly demanding shareholders.
I think the overall market will be taken by surprise when it comes to realize that condensate has been getting counted as crude and that U.S. production isn't going to be growing as many analysts forecasts; all this is happening at the same time, historically reliable suppliers like Venezuela completely fall into an abyss and OPEC appears as disciplined as ever, while Canadian pipelines are delayed which reduces egress potential to the market in the coming couple years.
Oil to follow suit with an oversold bounceGiven oils correlation to SPY (as shown in the overlay) as well as recently being oversold on the hourly, 4 hour, and daily timeframes it seems the oil bulls will follow SPY and other equity bulls in putting global growth concerns to the side for now and focus on looking to the upside with a potential rate cut and Mexico tariff delays also helping overall sentiment. If USO can break 11.19 the higher low will be set and an uptrend can be reestablished.
Warte auf HandelssignalSchwacher Markt wartet auf weiteren Rückgang um dann eine Verkaufsbestätigung zu erhalten.
USO: Well supported on the long term.The United States Oil Fund has most likely completed its technical pull back on the 1W scale and has resumed the bullish bias (RSI = 57.828, MACD = 0.080, Highs/Lows = 0.2614). Being well supported by all the underlying trend lines, this is probably an early buy signal towards the 16.25 1W Resistance. We are long on USO with TP = 15.00.
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USO - Example of a wedge breaking the wrong wayWedgies aren't always a reversal pattern, just wanted to show an example.
Look at technical indicators as well as chart patterns....
Opportunity To Short USO When price Arrive to the supply zone we consider to short this market make sure follow me I will update the trading idea once we get close to the zone or we hit it .
Short USOThe chart of USO looks much overbought..
Buy Zone: $13.32 to $13.59
Stop loss: daily clsoe above $14
Target: $12.25 to $12.04
You can Buy DWT , SCO or any others that have Inverse relation with USO or USOIL
$USO rising wedge on HTFNo financial advise, always DYO Home work.
Naked charts, simple PA bearish bias on 3D:
- Rising wedge forming
- Volume dropping and price raising (no bueno)
- Gapped candles within the wedge. You know the rules: gaps must be filled
- Retesting important fractal (red box). Clean break through this fractal may invalidate current TA.
- Major liquidity pool below Lower Low ($7.67)
- I don't follow news, strictly PA. So major news releases may also invalidate current TA.
USO - Long on OilI went long on this I think Thurs or Friday. Higher highs and higher lows, nice basing pattern with breakout above triangle. My stop is @ $11.14 (about 10% plus is below swing low). Below $12.03, I would view as negative if it drops back into it's consolidation zone.
XOM looking nice today too.
I normally avoid ETFs as a general rule, but this ETF fit the pattern.
monthly expected move in 15 min intervals. oil and the path aheanotable things CBs are begging for price inflation gloablly. opec is being supportive. things look healthy supply demand wise in oil.we're about to enter into driving season. 1 thing that i've been turning back and forth on is how similar the setup in venezuala reminds me of the iran-contra affair. not necessarily right now, but slowly developing into. venezuala if many dont know has strategic resources necessary for US refinery dominance globally. we're gonna do what it takes to assure those resources are maintained. we shall see how this plays out.
input data:
monthly open: 11.95
current IV: 26.92
DTE: 30
Iv percentile 11%
1 standard +-
.75 standard +- (not listed) ($11.26 lower bound, $12.64 upper bound)
.5 standard +-
.25 standard +-
WTI:CAD- dovish tilt supports oil
there's a high correlation between canadian dollar and oil. although data was moderate that came out about inventories.
the moving/defining part of todays trade is the dovish tilt from BOC. the loonie fell supporting oil prices.
oil is on the ropes and refinery utilization is very much to be focused on along with inventory numbers as we prep for driving season.
i expect the sideways range to continue until mid april when the driving season comes back into play
USO-Option TradeAMEX:USO
Option: Put
Expiration: 18 APR 19
Strike: 11
Trade Goal: Double+
Entry: .45
Sell 3/4 @ 1.00
Current USO Position: Impulse Wave 5 (Down)
Fib Spiral:
Wave Count:
Will update.
-AB
