XLE trade ideas
XLE...false break?At current levels ($64), XLE seems to have have done a textbook break and retest of the downrend (purple) in place since 2014 that wold indicate a powerfull move higher is in the cards. However, the impulse move since the lows of march2020 seems complete and XLE reached its minimum target in the $66 area last week. This, plus overbought technicals (Stoch RSI) might suggest that we might be looking at a false break and XLE is about to move below the trendline again for a correction at least to the 50wk ma ($53) that has been significant in the past and potentially lower. All eyes on the FED tomorrow. A dovish tone will likely send XLE higher towards $79. on the opposite, if the FED maintains its recent hike rethoric we will be looking at the false break scenario described above.
XLE S&P Oil and Energy Sector in UptrendOil is in an Uptrend,
Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Should bounce at support zones
59.40-57.
Read notes.
XLE S&P Oil and Energy SectorXLE is the ETF of the S&P Oil and
Energy Sector.
If you have to buy anything...
This should be it right now.
Oil could spike up when the Russians roll
(which will be any day now).
If you see 60, might be a good entry.
Oil could easily see $100 a barrel or more
very soon.
if you can swing it...February calls would work.
Another Take of XLE relative to broader equity marketsAnother Take of XLE relative to broader equity markets
would love to hear thoughts from others on this one
4 reasons to be bullish on energy XLE1) XLE just break above the neckline of precious big Head & Shoulder correction.
2) XLE just breakout of a falling wedge.
3) XLE just breakout of a rising wedge.
4) XLE have to be bullish in 2022 econimic recovery.
Wave 3 continues in 2022.
What do you think?
Energy ($XLE) Relative to S&P 500 ($SPY)The energy sector is looking to breakout of a 2-year consolidation phase. Perhaps 3rd time is a charm. Largest components of $XLE include: Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Chevron ($CVX), EOG Resources ($EOG), Schlumberger ($SLB), & ConocoPhillips ($COP).
SHORT XLEThe Energy Sector will be the first to sell off once high growth becomes favored again. XLE is overpriced because of inflation fears when in reality inflation is on a downtrend Month over Month. I expected to see Energy costs fall in the short term along with XLE's price. Playing 2/18 $61 puts at $1.59 a contract.
XLE 55/53 Put Credit SpreadOpened for a 0.25 Credit
XLE is making a strong move upwards, this filled on the afternoon pullback. If this pulls back in the next few days I will add the call side to turn this into a IC. This will provide me delta neutrality and allow me to play the range from 55-60.
Energy and Financials Look Like Tech 5-1/2 Years Ago2022 has begun with another sharp rotation from growth to value stocks. The SPDR Technology ETF had its biggest weekly drop in over a year, while the SPDR Energy ETF had its biggest gain in even longer.
Financials also jumped:
Price action in the two value sectors (XLE and XLF) seems to resemble XLK another moment 5-1/2 years ago. The chart below shows XLK between January 2015 and November 2016. Notice how the tech ETF spent more than a year consolidating sideways after a big run, chopping along its 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) before breaking out. There was also a bullish candlestick pattern (post-Brexit kicker) on June 27-28, 2016:
XLE and XLF haven’t consolidated as long as XLK in 2016, but they have other similarities. Both moved sideways for at least six months and spent time below their 100-day SMAs. Both made one final higher low at the 200-day SMAs. Both had potentially bullish candlesticks (abandoned-baby hammers). And, most importantly, both closed at new highs.
It’s also noteworthy that XLK’s 2016 breakout helped launch the current regime of FANG and “big cap growth.” Now as investors shed tech stocks and monetary conditions grow less favorable , similar breakouts have occurred in the polar-opposite sectors. Are we entering a new phase of the market, led by neglected cyclical value names?
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XLE - Breakout of 7 Year Downtrend XLE topped in June 2014, and finally broke the down trend on 1/10/22. OPEC and US producers showing tremendous fiscal and drilling discipline (great for shareholders). Oil supply / demand imbalance will only grow more extreme as omicron wanes, and the global economy continues to reopen.
Best performing sector YTD :)
XLE Short strangle $1.10 creditFEB 18 STO 56 P
FEB 18 STO 68 C
POP 74%
Delta 3.48
P50 87% Theta
Max profit 68
Max loss-Infinity
Buy power effect- $691.80
ROC - 15.6%
Unlimited Power!!!XLE been on a damn tear High RSI small rejections may start to signal some things. The energy sector around the world seems to be the place to be with energy prices sky rocketing everywhere that said 2 plays. The breakout bull play if XLE can break above 61.51 can take the play and ride momentum to 63.85 and 68.00. Keep in mind High RSI so if it breaks through and consolidates on that 61.61 level 68 is a very high possiblity. The Rejection play bearish IF XLE cant break above 61.51 combined with this high RSI it will retest the EMA at 60.35 a breakdown there sends it to next support level 59.03.
XLEXLE getting close to the top trend line. Support is at 59.28. It does look like it is topping so XLE could come back to retest the breakout.
$XLE top of channel - short back into trendxle approaching top of channel here. going to short back into downtrend
Bullish outlook on Energy $XLEAppears we have completed an expanded flat on a weekly time frame in $XLE. Since creating the low on the week of March 16, 2020, we have been moving impulsively to the upside, which from a technical standpoint, gives me a bullish outlook for the overall sector. Will update as time progress.
Strong move on XLE….but WAITXLE will continue to be bullish this 2022 as a recovering economy should need a lot of energy & oil.
XLF will rise with XLE as many big banks invest in energy.
55 will be a good support & the next resistance areas are 65, 72 & 80.
Target price may be the height of Head & shoulder at around 88.
But wait….XLE has yet to breakout of a falling wedge soon & then the rising wedge to follow.
2021 sector performance year in review2021 sector performance year in review:
XLE = Energy 46.07%
XRT = Retail 41.26%
XLK = Technology 34.38%
XLF = Financial 32.70%
XLY = Consumer Discretionary 27.46%
XLV = Health Care 24.73%
XLB = Materials 24.62%
XLI = Industrials 18.98%
XLC = Communication Services 16.73%
XLU = Utilities 13.76%
XLP = Consumer Staples 13.55%
XBI = Biotechnology -19.02%
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XLE at an important decision pointInvesting in XLE is less volatile than crude oil. Demand bound to rise as economy recovers.
XLE already came back from a HEAD & SHOULDER covid plunge & retested the neckline.
It is at the same time trying to breakout of a BIG WEDGE & a SMALLer WEDGE.
Noticing the small head & shoulder inside the small wedge,
my bias is for XLE to breakout soon. Getting above 65 would set the next targets of 80 & 100 into play as wave 3 continues.
Not fincial advice....make due diligence.
Pls comment also your ideas.
TOPUP Buying The Dip Strategy //This is just a TOPUP Buying The Dip Strategy that you can incoporate with your existing DCA type investments
What I like about trading Commodity based ETF (i.e Oil and Gold), every falling price will always means its just a correction. Meaning, after a dip it will again rally. Unlike stocks, it's difficult perhaps borderline impossible for commodity price to fall below zero (in this case for oil, it did but not for long) hence ETF that tracks the price of Oil will never go below zero.
Everytime this ETF make 50% correction, you buy the ETF shares. That's the strategy. Now I do not recommend to use a buy and hold strategy here. You need to decide how you want to take profit as soon as you buy the shares. Percentage based? Momentum based? trailing stop? fundamentally based? All up to you
The whole point of this post is to show every correction/falling price, its an opportunity to buy. This is a monthly chart and such opportunity only occured 3 times in the last 20+ years.. hence why I call this just a TOPUP strategy.
This can work with other commodity based ETF and you even can use this for SP 500 but waiting for 50% correction would be very rare but perhaps shorter corrections like 6-8%
Xle at 7 yr resistance Everyone calling for 100 plus oil which would take xle higher. According to charts we are hugging 7yr resistance and bounced off a few times. We are in wave 4 with big 5 down wave expected. I’m taking opposite view see oil long term in the mid 20s and xle making lower low 20s. Dollar inverse head n shoulder going to put pressure on oil commodities
