XLE retested the wedge!XLE retested the breakout and looks like it will go to test another resistance level.
XLE trade ideas
Opened (IRA): XLE August 16th 85 Monied Covered Call... for an 83.77 debit.
Comments: Some of the only red on my ETF board ... . Here, selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. There is also a divvy to be had some time in June, with the last distribution being .73.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.77
Max Profit: 1.23 ($123)
ROC at Max: 1.47%
50% Max: .62 ($62)
ROC at 50% Max: .74%
Energy is going to get expensive as soon as the dollar drops!Bounced off long term 200 - crossover rolling over. The dollar will peak this summer and then go down to 97. I see energy exploding. August 100 calls are going for .25 which looks like a minimum 10x return. I see it going past 100, but don't have any estimations for how high it can go.
NFA ALWAYS!
Gearing up for all time high 2008 / 2014 / 2024 touching 90s each time. Currently monthly is holding my fast emas and right at support. Bullish for me until below slow emas / major pivot broken and retested. Flagging inside the ascending triangle. possible breakout to all time high and beyond.
This chat is for entertainment/educational purpose only. This is just an idea by an amateur.
The rotation from Tech to Oils has begunI've been suggesting this for a while but the accelerator has been pressed hard today. rotation out of tech (XLK) into oils (XLE). Has a lot of room to run.
Oil stocks about to rally rel to SPXThink we can potentially get a big up move for Oil stocks vs SPX in the coming months. I'm long a bunch of names.
Energy - which way are we headed?Energy does not look good right now. XLE+XOP has an inverse correlation to the gold/oil ratio. The two only move into neutral and positive correlations for brief periods before one of them changes direction. Additionally, when the gold/oil ratio crosses 30 we’ve seen energy prices begin to fall to more extreme lows.
The technicals above indicate gold is continuing higher . If we’re patient, this should lead to a very strong buying opportunity in energy.
Oil recently tested and rejected the 200SMA. This makes it more likely that we see another test of the green AVWAP tied to the covid low than a retest of the red one from the March 2022 high.
XLE reached the supportBullish move soon. It reached the support line. The previous historical resistance line.
May Market Outlook, Sectors Rotation, Relative Strength AnalysisSince February, the commodities asset class has surged ahead, overshadowing the S&P 500's faltering performance. This notable shift in market dynamics underscores the resilience and strength exhibited by commodities during this period.
Of particular interest are the XLE and XLU sectors, which have emerged as frontrunners since early March. This transition coincided with the decline in momentum of previously dominant sectors like XLK and SMH (refer to Fig. 2). Notably, XLE and XLU, characterized as growth defensive sectors, have thrived amidst market downturns. Investing in commodities and energy/utility sectors during these phases could have yielded significant profits, with select energy stocks boasting returns exceeding 25%, while the S&P 500 experienced an approximate 10% decline.
Looking ahead to May, it's anticipated that XLE and XLU will maintain their market leadership, albeit with a slight loss in momentum. However, investors are advised to remain vigilant as these sectors may soon witness a change in dynamics. It's crucial to employ stop limit orders to safeguard profits in such volatile conditions.
Following the current trajectory, XLY, XLRE, and XLF are poised to emerge as significant players in the market cycle (refer to Fig. 3&4). However, it's important to note that these sectors are susceptible to rapid momentum shifts, particularly when XLK and XLC regain momentum.
Looking towards June, indications suggest that XLK and XLC will likely regain prominence in the market. For buy-and-hold investors, this presents an opportune moment to consider purchasing assets during market dips.
Considering these market dynamics, my top investment picks are (TSLA), (GOOG), (AAPL), (ORCL), and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). These companies demonstrate strong growth potential, especially when timed strategically to align with sector rotation leadership shifts.
XLE could be inverted Cup-Handle - Possible trapTemporary breakout may turn into inverted cup so careful.
Wait for clear breakouts, will keep you posted.
Possible temporary small break at 95.60
Possible consolidation at 97
Spy / Oil / Natural Gas - Market Analysis CPI comes in hotter than consensus.
IWM slaughtered / QQQ under pressure / SPY closes negative.
Yields & Dollar ripping.
Oil ripping / Natural Gas selloff.
Are we entering a new reflation trend?
Rotae out of Tech (XLK) into Oils (XLE) for longer term I'm very confident that for long term real money investors (or long time horizon long/short) a switch/rotation now from tech stonks into oils will pay off massively over the next 1 to 2 years (100% relative basis)
XLE Uptrend intact?XLE Uptrend intact? Energy ETF is showing a clear uptrend for the last few months. let's see how this trend evolves
XLE/SPY Relative ratio long termXLE/SPY Relative ratio long term, now at 2008 levels, still looks good on short term daily charts
XLE is a solid buy here and now!This chart looks very solid in my opinion...a buy in my book and shows that we should see a very strong move up over the next few months.
XLE - 5th wave starting?It's been a long correction for the energy sector but if we see a breakout here it might lend weight to my argument that XLE has indeed started a 5th wave according to EW theory.
XLE Monthly ChartI know this monthly candle stick isn't finished, so this will be an important week for the energy sector. This is crazy, so back in 2008 we made a high at 91.36 right. Then we had a false breakout in 2014. It failed to breakout in 2022, 2023, so is this the year for XLE to finally breakout from this level? We have an ascending triangle forming as well. What's y'all opinion on the XLE sector.
#energy $XLE follows through higher, potential 5% move in play#energy AMEX:XLE follows through higher, keeps reversing on the monthly, quarterly target 92.56 (4.8% higher) for the outside candle to complete.
#TheStrat
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Opened (IRA): XLE April 19th 88 Covered Call... for a 85.43 debit.
Comments: Looking to attempt to grab the March dividend, which has been averaging around .80 over the past four distributions.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 85.43
Max Profit: 2.57 ($257)
ROC at Max (ex. dividend): 3.01%
ROC at Max (w/dividend): 3.94% (assuming an .80 distribution)
ROC at 50% Max (ex. dividend): 1.50%
ROC at 50% Max (w/dividend): 2.44% (assuming an .80 distribution)
Energy will break all time highMomentum is extremely strong that has already broken above previous high in RSI. It will make an all time high. Seasonality also favors energy into June. Meanwhile, DXY is beginning its wave 3, which will make energy and metals fly.
XLE coming out of year-long baseXLE and oil stocks have been consolidating since 2022 and has finished the 3-wave correction and is moving out of this long term base. Oil futures also has bottomed. Another confirmation is that all these instruments are holding above the moving averages.
XLE idea update. Bullish stillVery confident in this idea. Liquidity was hit, nice pattern on the weekly, bought at support with confirmation. I would wish for nothing more on a setup other than what XLE has provided me with
LONG XLE AGAIN AND AGAINIf you look at my profile I have been steadily predicting XLE. This is another idea that I am posting publicly for you guys to profit from. It should be taken into consideration how the Markets will open on Monday. If they open normally without a crazy gap this trade should be executed, otherwise my idea is canceled. Anyway, I will update this idea on Monday for more clarity.
Enjoy the weekend!
