XLE trade ideas
XLE Head and Shoulders Failure Weekly TimeframeXLE is looking strong and should continue up. The Red line just above the Blue line is this weeks first resistance. The Blue line would be considered next weeks resistance if XLE can not test this week.
XLE Energy Play?Energy broke out, set a limit order at the 100day moving average and try to ride the wave up.
$XLE Golden Cross$XLE Golden Cross on the 1hr chart. Oil on the rise. Expect to see mid 70s+ in very near term.
Has the Energy Sector Bottomed Out?Energy stocks in the US rose sharply on Tuesday April 10. XLE went up about 3% with some major stocks like Exxon, Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum or Devon rising substantially.
Looks to us that Energy stocks are ready for a breakout, after years of underperforming the overall market.
Long XLE via June 15 '18 71 CallsAttractive risk/reward after significant sector underperformance vs SPY
S/L below demand zone around 66
Increased confidence above 68.25 opening up room towards 50% retracement area
XLE seeing huge bullish flowI am not a believer in the energy pop in May idea that large money is chasing after here. I guess geopolitical risk could change that. Personally, I think more likely we break trend next couple weeks. I am not giving a bias till flow gives us a better tell.
XLE AccumulationLooks like classic accumulation for big run in energy. Looks like year of commodities getting prepared.
OPENING: XLE JULY 20TH 67 LONG/APRIL 27TH 71 SHORT CALL DIAGONAL... for a 3.14/contract debit (78.5% width of spread).
Another neutral to bullish assumption setup with plenty of time to reduce cost basis. Currently, it looks like you could get a better fill than I did (mid currently at 3.00, 75% of the width of the spread, which is what you're looking for in these setups).
Here, I'm shooting for 20% of what I put the trade on for.
Metrics:
Max Profit: .86/contract*
Max Loss: 3.14/contract
Theta: .37
Delta: 32.33
* -- Assuming no rolls of the short call and finish of the underlying above the short call strike at expiry.
** -- Assuming no rolls of the short call and finish of the underlying below the long call strike at expiry.
Bearish: Energy Sector testing major $67 support levelTraders have reacted to this $67 level since June 2017 and now being tested as support. Intraday it's been broken many times but look for a break below to continue lower to $64 and $62 targets.
XLELong via Jun15/Mar16 diagonal for $4.37
POP: 50%
Max Loss: $4.37
Stop Loss: Price at $64.40
Max win: As of right now, $263
Target: Price at $75
Long Jun15 $66 call: 61 delta
Short Mar16 $73 call: 14 delta.
I structured this trade to give me the most profit as close to my target as possible (in the case it shoots straight up), while still having a positive theta trade. For reference try to match the thetas of both options up for choosing a strike for your short.
I will continue to roll the short call each cycle to continue to eliminate basis as well.
XLE LONG OpportunityXLE (Developed Markets Energy Index) has recenly tested relative lows: support area withstanded the recent drawdown.
Long-term Fibonacci retracement level seems to provide further support.
This could be a good opportunity to enter a LONG trade, since support levels look strong enough and we have plenty of room above.
Entered @ 68.35
Stop Loss: Fibonacci support (-3.6% @ 65.88)
Target price: three times our risk (+10.8% @ 76.25)
