XLE trade ideas
Energy sector coming backLooks like energy stocks that are coming back. Just in time when technology stocks are about to correct. I just opened positions on SLB and XOM, but there are others like CVX, EOG or XLE index that works the same way. These stocks are correlated with oil price that also appears to start turning around.
XLE Put credit spread exp Feb 23, 2024XLE came down into, touched and wicked the weekly close
of the week 12/04/2023 yesterday.
I did not have an alert set so I missed the first opportunity.
It wicked it on the daily chart.
So this morning around 10 I saw it was near the lows of yesterday again.
and the 2 weekly levels around 81 also held price in mid Dec 2023.
I sold the 80 Put strike at 3 wide down to 77.
The chart has some 5min FVGs inside the 81 range in Pink bands
And the Daily levels in Blue with a final weekly level at 77.
So yes, price could reenter below 81, but that May-July 2023 price
action looks like a balanced price range from 77-81 to me.
Which is why I sold 80.
#### Sell to Open
Symbol XLE
Open Date 1/9/2024
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 2/23/2024
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 77
Price to Open 0.62
Min Width Multiple 6
Risk Ratio 3.84
Return on Risk 26.1%
Opening DTE 45
1 Day ROI% 0.58%
Max Annual ROI % 211.3%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date
Closing Price
Closed Margin ROI %
Closed Annual ROI %
Energy SectorNot all breakout lines are created equal!
A chart trader must understand the implications of details such as its length and angle.
Time frame needs to also be weighed in.
A scientific process where proper odds can be established on the anticipated possible outcomes.
#energy
#XLE broken above resistance and major volume shelf - more to goXLE ETF has broken above both a major resistance level (horizontal and channel) as well as a major volume shelf. In addition it's come off a divergent low which has propelled it higher. I think energy names have some legs here..
XLE Bull Put spread at intraday pullback after-1 sig testSymbol XLE
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 78
Price to Open 0.30
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 5.67
Return on Risk 17.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.38%
Max Annual ROI % 140.0%
Longer term is bullish on XLE. Has engaged -1 sig Buying Oct 5 which would have been the best time and place to sell puts.
Engaged again 10/26 through 10/30 and pushed away.
And it pushed up to the VWAP of the bullish model.
I would strictly say that the -1 sig has been engaged 6 days already, but the fact that it pushed up to the VWAP and sold off tells me that the buying algo is still in play.
Sold Puts at the 80 strike below -2 sig on the bullish model.
Overall, I do think XLE goes higher into the Bearish +1 sig near 89 and gives time for the 80 puts 46 DTE to die.
Decent entry at .30 but the high trade of the day was .34.
This was just above the 15 min chart -1 sig low which held the session beautifully.
I don't expect that I could've gotten .34, but perhaps .32 was possible AT the 15min chart -1 sig low.
If XLE pushes in the next few days down past 84 I will roll further out, and maybe 1 or 2 down.
If XLE eats time and rallies up to 89 I will do nothing.
If XLE gets a break above 89 and attacks 89.25 I will consider selling Calls at the 94 strike.
SPY is steady today and sustaining it's hard Bull rally from last week, so XLE is not in sync with it.
XLE 3d 1H 2024 XLE has been trading in this range for the better part of the last 2 year.
The way I see it, the 82-85 price range determines how this moves through 2024. Once it trades side way in the zone for a bit, the way the price breaks will determine the next move.
If it goes up, I'd expect something similar to the highlighted Q4 2024 -Q1 2023 price action. Breaks out, and makes the closest thing to wykoff distribution top.
If it goes down, expect a retest of the underside triangle, then could turn into an overthrow, creating a bear trap then following with a breakout. Following a similar path to 1.
If it breaks down, it finishes a head and shoulders, with the red line acting like the neckline.
Look at XOM, CVX to hint at what this does next.
If the turmoil in Israel/Gaza widens there is a chance the price of oil and energy stocks reflect the increased supply risk.
XLE Week of Dec 18I am bullish on Oil generally, but I am expecting more of a range-bound week with energy next week.
It is in a neutral range, with more accumulation resting towards 89:
So we will likely end up drifting towards this target range.
Overall, generally neutral on energy itself, but I do expect a drift up, especially if the market maintains the bullish bias.
Watch for a break and hold of the threshold. Its very important with XLE that you wait for confirmation of a hold, because it frequently gets slapped back down or up with breaks:
Por ejemplo:
Multiple Attempts to Break-out thwarted by Resistance on XLEFor the past year or so, AMEX:XLE keeps getting rejected at the top of this triangle. In my experience, if Price Action knocks enough on the door (be it support or resistance), eventually the door will be open and price action will break-through.
Steps I noticed on an Impulse Breakout:
- Price Action smashes through resistance
- Price Action looks very bullish
- At some point the price retraces and re-tests the lower level
- The trend will either be confirmed or invalidated based upon
A) if previous resistance is now support, the bullish momentum will likely continue
B) if price falls back through the breakout point, and closes for a candle or two, the breakout is invalidated
Markets are designed to confuse. I've seen several breakouts retest then fail falsely, only to continue on a bullish trajectory.
Let's apply the above logic to the 2021 time frame
1. Resistance at the top of that wedge is hit in Q1
2. During Q2 the price attempts to break out, but eventually fails
3. The lower end of the shape acts as support, sending price action up with more momentum,
4. Q4 the breakout happens and gradually PA falls back down, Retests the top of the range for a single candle, then rips up strongly to the upside.
XLE Nasty Setup From a technical level, the XLE is showing a potential head and shoulders setup on a monthly chart. Combine this with major bearish divergence leaves shorting this basket of stocks as the trade of the year.
Any potential good news on the Ukraine/Russia front would be devastating on a fundamental level.
Everyone is long energy. Be brave, be bold. AMEX:XLE
XLE BUYPrice action method. I was looking for it to break certain price level on the weekly, monthly and quarterly time frames
$XLE: 85 May Be A ShortXLE is seeing tremendous underperformance vs broader inflation products and growth equities and I believe that it may see lower prices soon. 85 seems to be a major point of contentious for the market and stocks like CVX, XOM and COP aren't doing bulls any favors. We'll see what this one has in store for us...
XLE: Watch for break See chart above.
With the market pumping and an apparent rotation back into other stocks like tech, etc. the pressure is on for energy stocks.
We are currently in a pennant, hovering on 1 SD from the mean.
Two options here:
#1 Break down from the pennant and thus, break down from 1 SD:
We are going for a mean reversion back to the high to mid-60s.
#2: Hold the pennant and 1 SD as support
We are going back to the top of the pennant in the low 90s.
Watch for the break and/or hold.
The chart is the weekly, longer-term idea.
If we break, I don't like holding short but I will try a small ERY position.
Just my thoughts!
Is energy about to surge or collapse?Oil Looking very weak!
Natural GAs is almost ready to accumulate on the long side.
XLE putting in bearish consolidation!
More Downside in Energy ETF?Energy was the only the only major sector to fall last month. Is there more downside risk?
The first pattern on today's chart of the SPDR Select Sector Energy Fund is the November 6 close of $85.70. XLE gapped under that level the next day and has remained there since. Last week saw prices attempt to rally but again stall at the same price area. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, the lower study uses our 2 MA Ratio custom script to plot the relationship between the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 21-day EMA. The faster EMA has remained consistently below the slower EMA, which could indicate a short-term downtrend is underway.
Turning to the longer term, XLE has been trying to hold its 200-day simple moving average. A breakdown could make traders think prices are starting a longer-term downtrend.
Next, the monthly chart highlights a rising trendline since mid-2022. A drop under this support could also be viewed bearishly.
Finally, you have lower highs running back to June 2014. Downside from here -- at a time of rising oil supplies -- could confirm that longer-term resistance.
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE):
1-year: -7.21%
5-years: +31.50%
10-years: -0.06%
(As of November 30, 2023)
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Natural Gas & Oil looking heavyThe energy market may see some headwinds in the next 1-2 weeks.
Natural Gas storage update on Thursday.
Oil has triggered a head & shoulder pattern
Technology to Energy RatioEverything is cyclical. Every asset has its own cycle eventually in its own time. From Crypto to Real estate and Technology.
I crossed compared the Energy sector to the Technology Sector. XLE/QQQ
Then overlaid the Technology Sector to the Energy Sector QQQ/XLE
As you can see there is many clues where one will always outperform the other.
You just have to hold these assets where one is gaining vs the other.
One asset will suck the liquidity of the other and visa versa until one completes the cycle then it repeats
Hard assets are primed for outperformance.
Happy Investing
XLE Roadmap May 2023One year of correction in energy likely ends early June which arguably does not bode well for headline inflation going forward
XLE Breakout Push to $100Looking at this weekly chart view of the XLE ETF, it looks set for a breakout and potential push to the psychological $100 level. Stop at $83.
$XLE Ready For Some ENERGY!Looking Good!
Nice ROI
Not difficult and great for your CHRISTMAS GIFTS!!!
XLE, LONG I don't see a whole lot of opportunities right now , with exception of energy , primarily oil , which is significantly net short per IG data and outpreforming pretty much everything .
I am going to focus on XLE probably for rest of the year and I moved out of my TBIl position to buy this now ....
Above GLB ,
Crude Oil shorted per IG traders data at 71% net short ,
XLE significant RS strength vs spy,
oil could be on multiyear uptrend here ...
Last time market went du doo , XLE outperformed , I think we might have put our highs in on QQQ/SPY and I am hoping that I might just be right that oil will give me a way to keep account growing .
