XLF watch $48.45/68: Key Resistance holding up the Recovery WaveXLF trying to recover along with the general market.
Currently resting a proven resistance at $48.45-48.68
Bears look to be winning, so look at supports below.
XLF trade ideas
Rhythm of the Great BearUndead Bear Captain's Log
April 27, 2025
Will make one final attempt to chart and navigate the murky waters of the Great Bear.
XLF may be a good candidate with still distinct waves, like XRT, XLRE and XHB.
All other sectors, especially SPY are skewed by tech, same-day options and basically unchartable.
I call this map the rhythm of the great bear. It is for my own use, as I like attuning to the waves of the great ocean, the beat of music or the rise and fall of civilizations.
XBI is the nascent child, XLK the moody teen, SPY the resilient adult and DJI the steady grandparent. In markets, I think it is the child that shows the way to growth and decline. XBI shows signs of the Great Bear, having stumbled through an initial decline in 2023 and crawled its way through 2 years of recovery, the so called running flat correction.
This market has thrived through over a decade of MMT, pummeled briefly by covid, only to receive the greatest injection of digital print since all of history. The little people are suffering the effects of inflation everywhere. Wages have barely budged since 20 years ago, yet housing prices have quadupled, automobiles and everything else Mom & Dad can think of have at least doubled. People are literally crumbling toward the lowest rung of Maslow's hierachy, able only to take care of basic needs.
Beneath the streets of folks struggling to survive, we can uncover that the housing market existing home sales is basically at its lowest point since the GFC and banks are still struggling to manage the bond sell-off over the last 5 years.
On top of this decade of MMT mess, the half sane President has declared cold war on basically the entire world. He points the finger of USA's problems at everyone exept USA and magically believes USA can somehow snap factories and skilled workers into existence out of thin air to make America great again without its friends, partners (and slaves). Yet 160 year East-West civilization cycles say otherwise. In fact it points to power eventually returning to the Eastern world.
The sudden viscious market decline followed by Trump backpedalling and market rebound are strong signs of an initial wave 1, wave 2. It can wake up the bear. It can thunder the quake. It can bring on the tsunami where 15-25 such waves can arrive at an unimaginable velocity.
When such waves arrive, what is any man, woman, child to do? Who can ride such waves without a chart? The waters will flip ships, smash hulls, rip entire masts off of galleons.
Yet, with a proper chart, one could ride it like a pirate and secure the ONE PIECE.
Arr, arr, I sail into the storm, full of courage, a wee bit of wit, and an insane amount of folly!!!
Arr, arr, this be the end of the captain's log.
XLF Trade LevelsThe financial sector interests me, especially with an upcoming interest rate meeting, earnings report, and declining consumer sentiment.
Ultimately, I like to swing the Sector ETF's but they also make for affordable day trades!
With XLF being in a tight range on the Weekly+ timeframes, it makes it easy to daytrade within those levels.
XLF Banking crash comingThis is something I have worried for sometime and my main reason for being very bearish. Tariff has only help uncover the banking mess hiding underneath. XLF could crash 5-6% in couple of sessions based on VP
www.theguardian.com
XLF C next Friday JPM,MS,BLK, and WFC followed by AXP the following Thursday will the big sell off ill looking at picking up $45 calls exp 4/18 there's a couple gaps to fill on the way up. will probably buy a small amount allowing me to average in
XLF Head and Shoulders patternEarlier today I commented not to go long today because XLF hasn't completed it's pattern yet. This is the pattern I was talking abut, H&S on the daily chart. So unless congress does something over the weekend to rescind tariffs, XLF will complete this pattern Monday.
I didn't short it because I expect congress to do something, but it's a matter of when. When they do, the bounce will be so huge, it'll wipe out any put option. Not to mention, the pattern should complete Monday anyways. If the GOPs in congress don't get together and rescind tariffs, expect XLF to overshoot the target by a lot, lol.
Assuming no action by congress, expect market to tank Monday. No idea what happens on Tuesday.
XLF eyes on $48.xx: sem-major support that might give a bounce XLF and many big banks are a significant support zone.
Bulls need a bounce here, even if going lower after.
$48.45-48.68 is the exact zone of interest for bulls.
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XLF has yet to fall 4% at least XLF has yet to fall 4% at least and then maybe another 4-5 % from the SHS neckline. For now I will go one step at a time and target the neckline in a weeks time
XLF DaytradingI was way late to the party buying puts today because I thought it'd bounce when my futures indicators hit oversold, but I did catch part of the initial drop, and then re-entered the trade when SPX broke support and financials lagged a bit.
Figured XLF had to also make a new low, and the "h" pattern gave me a target around $49 - $49.05 so I flipped my puts there.
If indicators don't work, you gotta go with chart formation. That's the best you can do....
XLF in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when at three of these events happen:
* Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones
* Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands
* Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level
* Price at Fibonacci levels
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price in buying zone below bottom of channels
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under bottom of Bollinger Band
Entry at $48.82
Target is upper channel around $51
XLF Pulling BackLooks like Financial sector is pulling back. How much? Anyone can guess. I see a couple gaps back through the $46 range that needs to be filled. There is much volume coming in and the sellers are taking control. We had a break down of the sector for the past week. If it drops below the 50 day EMA it could easily retest the 100 day at $48, so a $2 spread is not a bad trade. Do your due diligence.
XLF - housing slow down in FL and AZ - bear spread and long putXLF bear spread and long put is my trade, thesis is we may be creating a double top.
Banks have run up quit abit and are far away from their book value.
Housing seems to be slowing in Florida and Arizona.
Tarriffs may muddle with international payments, at least creating desire for certainty.
Vix volatility is threatening to go higher. I dont trade vix directly.
be safe out there!
SHORT XLFThis will be one of the major to fall harder than most during this correction.
So much bad debt on the books
2007/8 ≈ 2025/6
$XLF (banks/financial sector) with a failed breakoutCouldn't hold the breakout. More downside ahead imo. Gap up would be perfect to add short pos with SL above channel...
Time to invest in the amazing SPDR ($XLF) I’m changing the process for picking tickers to make it more affordable while avoiding risky penny lots. Comment your favourite TSX tickers under $150 & NYSE or NAS under $100.
Key Stats:
• AUM: ~$38B
• Expense Ratio: 0.13%
• Yield: ~2.0%
• Recent Analyst Sentiment: Multiple upgrades with a Buy rating across major holdings
• Catalyst Note: Q1 earnings from top constituents expected to further validate sector strength
Technical Reasons for Upside:
1. Resistance Breakout: XLF has recently challenged key resistance, setting the stage for a robust upward move.
2. Bullish Momentum Indicators: A clear MACD crossover and a climbing RSI suggest that the technical momentum is shifting in favour of bulls.
3. Volume Surge: Increasing trading volumes signal heightened investor interest and confirm the strength of the emerging trend.
Fundamental Reasons for Upside:
1. Favorable Interest Rate Environment: With rising rates boosting net interest margins, the financial sector is positioned to see improved profitability.
2. Economic Recovery Boost: As the economy gains traction, banks and financial institutions—key XLF components—are expected to report stronger earnings.
3. Analyst Optimism: Recent upgrades across major holdings like JPMorgan and Bank of America reflect a growing confidence in the sector’s outlook.
Potential Paths to Profit:
1. Option 1 (Low-Risk): Buy shares of XLF at current levels and hold until the ETF reaches your target of $57.
2. Option 2 (Moderate-Risk): Purchase LEAP call options with an expiration in 6-12 months at a strike near the target price, and sell for profit as the rally unfolds.
3. Alternative Strategy: Consider a bull call spread by buying a call option at a lower strike (e.g., ~$36) and selling a call option at a higher strike (e.g., ~$58) with the same expiration. This can help manage your premium outlay while capitalizing on the upside.
Please LIKE, FOLLOW, SHARE, and COMMENT if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep this signal relevant, keep the content free, and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences. We do not offer refunds. All sales are final.
Trading Set upHere with a fourth screen set up and order entry window. Yesterday I was able to trade from TradingView and Interactive Brokers. The amount of technical indicators to chose from and the so careful design platform, to me is a lot more than a charting platform, it is a full trading solution that hard to beat.
Thanks to the creators and people who also share the technical indicators, code and knowledge, after being in several platforms, this is becoming my favorite. To make things a lot better, a second screen with the market movers gainers, is the best.
SPDR Sectors Rolling Down as Anomaly Event Sets UpSPDR sectors appear to be forming a Head-n-shoulders pattern after the US elections.
It appears the markets are stalling into a congestion phase - possibly leading to my Anomaly breakdown event.
This video will help you understand how the financial and real estate sectors could collapse to deflate the current market trend.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Rally Continues 603.35 Next But Warning Have A Hedge Feel good rally continues with pull backs most likely in inauguration then correct
Watch 10 Year and watch IWM
Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process.
If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently.
The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess.
This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$XLF Long - Watch the end of this monthPushing hard on the top of a rising wedge. Monthly candle needs to close green.
XLF- Cant Hide From The TruthWe are in interesting times in the markets
If you have followed us at all you know that we have been pounding the table for the last couple of years that the markets are heading for a GENERATIONAL TOP
Of course as with all Bull markets we have seen almost parabolic price action in some markets at points over that time period since
And of course you see some interesting calls regarding where the markets are heading
Just yesterday we saw calls for SPX 7500, 8000, 10000, etc
While all of those levels are theoretically possible, a trader makes money on whats probable
And the clearest chart we have on where markets are heading is found with XLF
Without turning this into an Elliott Wave seminar we have 2 clear as day patterns that signal the end of the 5 wave impulsive move that started off the Covid lows
ANYTIME you see a triangle appear in a wave that means the NEXT move you see is the LAST move of that wave...and once that final move completes you can expect a significant retracement
As you see we have a by-the-book triangle in the Wave 4 position
But wait theres more! (in our best infomercial voice lol)
Along with the triangle an ENDING DIAGONAL has formed in Wave 5
Ending Diagonals, like triangles, also signal that a wave is ending and a retracement is next
So in a nutshell, we have a clear triangle in Wave 4 that told us the next move (Wave 5 in this instance) would be the last move before a significant retracement AND we are in the final stages of an ending diagonal in Wave 5 which signals that the Wave 5 move is over
Here is the last piece we want you to know:
Triangles are almost COMPLETELY RETRACED 100% OF THE TIME
And as XLF goes so do the broader markets....get ready
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: 10-16 UpdateLearn to watch for signs of major market contagion by watching key sectors.
In my opinion, the biggest sectors: Like Transportation, Financials, Gold, and Crude Oil, will lead any major market collapse - often by 7-10+ days.
This videos highlights what I believe most traders need to watch in terms of understanding when/where opportunities are for long trades while attempting to gauge risks related to any type of broad market collapse event.
Spend some time looking over this custom Crash Index and let me know if you see any correlations related to when the SPY/QQQ move more than 7-8% downward in any sudden price moves...
(XLF+IYT+GDX+XOP)/4
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
XLF- The ImplicationsAs with SPX, XLF is headed to what we think is a MAJOR TOP
We will save the long diatribe but the implications of this are disturbing to say the least
What are the implications?
Increased layoffs
Increased unemployment
Increased Bankruptcies
Bank Insolvencies of various levels
Restrictive Credit in spite of rate cuts
Etc, Etc, Etc
Prepare yourself
