Trump taxes, S&P 500 and FED Balance sheetS&P 500 finally has a setup. And FED balance sheet is magically still going down. Let's get in here.
In the news now, we see that Trump's tax returns may be made public, but probably not, at least not before the election. But the real news now is the liquidity. FED isn't printing. Congress hasn't started flooding liquidity from the Treasury General Account.
XLF trade ideas
XLF Short Position, !Copper Longs; 12:54:50 (UTC) Mon Jun 29, 20With lumber up 2.3%, copper has made a new higher high and I am not bullish on copper, for the current bullish phase transition to bullish. This relates to the fact that we should see nominal GDP remain muted, thus causing stagflationary economic environment for the time being.
13:05:08 (UTC)
Mon Jun 29, 2020
XLF - banks not looking good 6-12moPotential for a fakeout here but my hypothesis is that we see new local lows on XLF by the end of 2020. You may think the banking sector looks poised for a rebound if you look at the weekly candles, but the monthly candles look like this dump could just be getting started.
Short XLF
Entry: $23-25
Stop: 26.50
Target: $18.50 - $13
Assess in October, adjust 18.50
>BAD DAY FOR FINANCIALS<ElliotWaveFLATabc>3-3-5<CORRECTION<SHORTAs this title suggests. Things could get very bad for American Financial companies.
We are directly at the cusp. 2 scenarios play out from here.
This is the bearish scenario where we have JUST completed A 3-3-5 FLAT abc Elliot wave correction from v dumps.
We should see another leg down equal to the V DUMP , dump from here. This will complete the 3-3-5 Correction on the larger timeframe. The Primary (yellow) ABC.
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A = V Dump
B = Rally to here (flat correction itself, just completed)
C = Another drop 1:1 V Dump just beginning.
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A one to one Fib Based extension of the drop puts us ... at the bottom of the chart there. The C wave completion Down.
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Pull out your shorting pants chaps. One robot fist at a time.
XLF - What's next for financials?Closed out bullish options on NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT today as our bet on the rotations from airlines/oil to tech was successful.
With the upcoming federal reserve stress test results to be announced - what is next for the financials?
Today's XLF candle sits on the 0.382 fib. RSI dipped below w/ increasing accumulation - so could potentially be a BTFD situation to the next level. More likely than not will accumulate here for a bit until 6/25.
Regardless, entered GLD calls for 6/19 as the dollar weakens and VIX increased a bit today.
In summary - not sure where we are headed and what is the come for the rest of the week. Thoughts welcome.