XLF trade ideas
XLF daily bullish hammerOrder BUY XLF ARCA Stop 30.88 LMT 30.88 will be automatically canceled at 20230101 00:00:00 EST
XLF daily bullish hammer wave 4 of downtrend into 50% fibonacci retracement gotta be quick countertrend.
XLF weekly set up for ABCXLF weekly set up for ABC expect some form of retracement can zoom in on daily but expect ot to be volatile.
SHORT | XLFAMEX:XLF
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Price Action
It's bearish as hell, and it's correlated to XLK by 0.85; it gave us the early signal of the crash today; I expect a 10% -20% correction in Tech Large Caps soon.
TP1: 35$
*It's my idea and could be wrong 100%.
XLF $XLF Initial LongXLF $XLF Initial Long. This is a pure momentum signal just as are every other signal I post. ZERO other factors are considered in producing this signal.
Entry reasons: XLF is showing momentum and confluence of mean reversion crossing up the 70 day price mean.
Exits and SL: TP and SL on chart. Move SL on TP. After TP2, trail with 0.5xATR step and 1.5xATR offset.
Run Play Choices are Zone, Gap or MAN!XLF bounced in a big way in Wednesday Trading stopping a multi-week selloff.
On the 4HR I see a Head and Shoulder with a profit target up to 2021 highs.
On the 30 minute I see a double bottom form.
Which leads to a Cup and Handle
Put them all together and you have a solid trading plan to ride XLF up to top of channel.
As these patterns validate or not, I will update the idea with some options ideas for entries and exits along each step.
Follow if you would like to receive updates.
My bias right now is bearish which conflicts with this idea playing out.
Do not let your bias miss a secular trend.
XLF OpinionWyckoff Method On XLF. Posted for future reference to see reactions to support, resistance, Channel, and targets. Targeting a few numbers here such as 18 aggressive 23 conservative. once we drop, it will be hard to catch support.
8/31/22 XLFSPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial ( AMEX:XLF )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $33.05
Breakout price: $33.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.85-$30.65
Price Target: $38.00-$38.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-137d
Contract of Interest: $XLF 1/20/23 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.23/contract
Cash pile to start earning moneyAn incredible 2 trln in reverse repo have to start working at some point. Bonds are the most obvious destination raising 0,05% per annum yields to 3%+. An extra 60 billion in profits
Banks Short Again?Looking for some selling in this sector as well, we broke out of the downtrend so we don't have to retrace all the way down, but we should see some support in the area shown and a move back up, will be looking for a breakout next go round.
Is XLF on a downtrend?I believe that XLF has potential to touch $32.34 if it breaks $34 and may even retrace back to $30.20. Have patience and wait for it to break 20dma. Huge potential for profits from puts. It may happen in next week or two. Not a financial advice and as always please do your own DD.
Financial sector analysis 10+ years outreviewing the financial sector monthly chart. I'm looking for a possible breakout of the monthly chart once the stoc rises above previous AD breakout level . It needs to create a bull flag first. Long on the dips
Elliott-Wave Theory- Seven Wave Crashing Structure.Here is a common crashing structure taught by popular YouTube Block Chain Backer, and we see that a financial drop should realize around Q1 of 2023 because of macroeconomic news moving the market.
Falling wedge in BanksThe bank ETF has retraced to the 382 fib and also happens to be in a falling wedge
Chart watching this. Getting interesting.
$XLF has some gaps to fill on the upsideKeeping eye on these gaps overhead on $XLF. The longer time frames are looking like a bullish reversal. Price is bouncing at the weekly linear regression channel and 200 ema as well.
XLF- Remain Bearish Banks always have it the worse and always have the hardest time breaking out or getting in control, not sure what banks are holding crypto at that which could of been a big mistake as 2020 and 2021 most banks opened up their crypto portfolios and bought it up as well as real estate and fed rates affect the banks the most as they need to swap money nightly with other banks at extremely high rates now. giving it strong aspect well hit my next short target.
XLF- Lower lows comingLower lows are coming, the trend is noticeably clear, and the economy is even more clear... it takes about 2 days or so to get the pump we need and then take profits breaking every stock down little by little... what's crazy is that were really going to get these cheap prices again we saw in 2020...
XLF- needs some heavy support hereBanks have been selling off since the beginning of mid-January and could have some more bleeding to do as well... also, we must take in the fact the banks are invested in to BTC & ETH and other crypto's as well and could be losing in the realm as well and smart money knows that, heavy heavy puts on the banks side... and we see citadel is handing them with the crypto as we saw Luna terra crash over the week. Low P:E ratios are about the only thing attractive in these bank stock prices but again they were the first to give out earnings and that's old news by now.
