Engulfing Candles Menace Big TechPrice action in the market has grown more cautious, especially toward technology stocks.
The first big pattern occurred on Monday, when the SPDR Technology ETF jumped to a new all-time high above $175. But it was negative within an hour and closed the session under Friday’s low – a big bearish engulfing candle.
Similar patterns appeared on November 22 and December 1.
Next, gains have narrowed in Big Tech as Apple accounts for more of the upside. (Consider the second chart comparing XLK to AAPL.) Meanwhile former workhorses of the sector like ServiceNow and Adobe have teetered.
Finally, MACD made a lower high this month as XLK made a higher high – bearish divergence.
The weakness resembles patterns earlier in the year as bond yields jumped. This time, it occurs shortly before the Fed is expected to accelerate tapering. Is it the start of a new trend as Jerome Powell looks to unwind historic stimulus?
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XLK trade ideas
Elliott Wave View: Technology ETF (XLK) Looking to Break to New Short Term view in XLK suggests the rally from October 5 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from October 5, wave ((i)) ended at 153.71 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 149.60. Internal of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 150.53 and wave (b) pullback ended at 153.15. Stock then resumes lower in wave (c) which ended at 149.60. This completed wave ((ii)).
The stock has rallied higher in wave ((iii)). Internal of wave ((iii)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 151.61 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 150.00. Stock has resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 156.71, wave (iv) ended at 154.61, and wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 159.18. The pullback in wave ((iv)) has begun to correct cycle from October 12. Wave (a) ended at 157.51. Expect the ETF to bounce higher in wave (b), then we are looking down for wave (c) to complete wave ((iv)) before the rally resumes in wave ((v)). Near term, as far as wave ((ii)) pivot low at 149.60 stays intact, expect wave ((iv)) pullback to find support in 156.91 – 155.97 area for further upside.
SPDR Technology (XLK) Fund - Touching top of Trading ChannelChannels that I see with the SPDR select technology fund. It was pretty well contained in this channel since 2008, but as you can see the COVID rally has pushed it way above. Right now it is in a larger parallel channel that has its mid line (red dotted) just above the major peaks since 2015. Will this channel hold Tech? HArd to tell, but so far it has been strong enough to buck an 11 year trend.
1D
4h
XLK To $144Daily chart created negative divergence with PPO. Typically that indicates weakness in the trend. Interestingly this happens to be at the upper boundary of the channel that has developed back in 2020.
Unless price bounces back this afternoon or tomorrow morning, it’s reasonable to expect some sort of the pull back. Most logical level would be just below $144 where price made previous higher high. This retest if prior highe would completely make sense from technical perspective.
AAPL update: since AAPL is big part of XLK it would mean we can see a bit of a pullback in stock as well. I previously posted price target of $130 to be reached. Not as confident in $130 at the moment, although it could definitely be reached, but $134 would be very doable.
Technology overextended since July 2020 & may go until November This is about a simple as it get from a TA perspective. Tech broke the 2009 channel back and July 2020 and has not looked back since. Given its current strength and trajectory it could keep running all the way to November before we see another pullback. The air is really thin up here, but investors don't seem to care.
Trade Plan XLK 10-06-21Trade Plan XLK
Created 10-06-21
Strategy = Mean Reversal Strategy KC
Screener = CNN Business
To wait candle retrace
EP = 139.5 ; CL = 136
Risk = 3.5
TP = 142.5; TP2=146
Option Pricing
Strike Price = < >
Premium= < >; Delta = < >
Option Risk= Risk*Delta*100
Expiry Date = (>30D) DD/MM/YY
Time Stop = (1/3x D) DD/MM/YY
XLK (Elliott correction wave)Alot of you have been wondering how on earth I make my trades with minimalistic features on my graph. In short I only use a modified version of Elliott wave theory. I only trades Elliott correction waves. The chart of XLK is forming what looks to be a regular flat. Wait for the break of the low and a potential lower degree correction (LDC) before buying calls. Thats the strategy I use. Good day!
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