bitcoin tumbleHere I have added some future support lines...This chart has been good so far from the November top. the commodity channel keeps getting pushed over by bear market rally attempts.
BVOL24H trade ideas
The curious case of a massive Bull Rally in all marketsThis is not a crypto analysis , I have more holdings in stock market than in crypto so that's what I care about.
But the curious case here is the situation in BTC long contracts.
It's at a historical high , so high that the indicators at the bottom have no place to go anymore and they are all signaling a downturn in these long contracts.
SO why does this matter?
Because since July 2021 the BTC market is almost 1:1 correlated with stock market.
That is because with mining power leaving China the crypto domination now are in the hands of the USA or Wall Street to a certain degree. The biggest investors of crypto are big funds and VCs in the US and they are dictating the price.
And since then, this particular BTC Long contract chart is in a negative correlation with the stock market.
As we have come to an end in this massive rise in long contracts what will happen next is a big upwards move in BTC, SPX and NDX.
At this point no rhetoric about recession, interest rates, war, uncertainty etc. won't matter.
This is like seasons, spring will come no matter what.
And here it is!
BTCSHORTS: BTC rally stalls; a bigger capitulation may be neededBTCSHORTS chart seems to have found a temporary support & may reverse up for a bigger BTC capitulation to continue in the 2nd part of May. We may see a rally in June up to late July. Then another in 4Q2022 leading into Jan2023.
All risk assets tumbled Wednesday 18May into the worst down day since pandemic despite DXY $ index & TNX 10-yr yield retracing, increasing the odds of a STAGFLATION. (a stalling economy with rising interest rates which is really bad).
The 10-yr yield not only shows the health of our economy but also inflation expectations. For now, inflation is still rising but economic growth & consumer demand is already decreasing.
There is still no catalyst suggesting that the relief rally can be sustained.
Not trading advice
$BTC LONGS POSITIONS This is the only chart that keep me Bullish ASF
The last time we have and ATH the Longs positions are marked in the chart.
Now we have a huge spike in longs positions.
They know something that we dont?
Time will tell, for now, im acummulating every coin that i can, preparation is everything.
Have a good week
Summer SadnessI've taken into account the last two bear markets, as being a victim myself of one of them, the highest probability of price action is this crude representation. 2014 Sucked, lasted about a year and a half, 2018 sucked too, lasted from feb 2018 to jan/feb of 2019 before any signs of relief. The bear market signal usually starts the following year after the halvening in Q4, this is where people try to time the top and get rekt because they never took any profit off the table for whatever reason and go into extreme pain mode followed by emotional hibernation. Volume at these lower levels will be the key for the swing traders here along the bulls release under the 200 day MA will be fighting against a river, sell pressure will always be against them, while the bears are playing a btc settlement layer accumulating btc on the back end to sell on a bull market. Unfortunately there is only temporarily relief for the bulls in a bear market, event driven catylists will continue to push the market down as fear creeps into the minds of the weak. With vol so low people are on edge and selling for a -% is a good idea *you not down until you sell* just don't look at the charts for a while and go have some fun. If your gunna trade play with the momentum not against the grain this shit will rekt you. Based on last bear market we can expect two fake out events followed by two crater events, my cash will be deployed between 12.5k and 18k between Nov. to Feb. I am patient and that is the key realizing btc price action off an ATH always dips -80-87% if I am wrong I am out with that bc it means this stupid supercycle is dead and we can just infinitely continue the shenanigans
"Protect meh homies"
-KewlKat
Bitcoin can hit new ATH 75000 at 2022Bitcoin can hit new ATH 75000 at 2022
My technical indicators, show in my chart.
Thank you.
$BTC LongsH&S with a clear target to 25000.
Broke out of historical resistance.
Something cooking in the near future.
BTC ChannelCould simply be at the bottom of a channel here. If we break much further down then I'll call it invalidated. Let's not get bearish at support and bullish at resistance like everyone else just yet!
BTC Bitfinex Longs compared to BTCThe number of BTCUSD longs is has never been higher. The divergence to BTC price has never been wider. Expect extreme volatility in the upcoming weeks.
XBT: Bearish Flag BreakdownBitcoin looks to be consolidating into a bearish flag - with most weaker coins falling out of favor and possible new regulation on the horizon this does indeed look like a distributional pattern. Trades off the resistance trend line selling off harder than support buying.
This looks like a bearish flag to me and we are looking for some fundamental catalyst such as a banning of cryptocurrencies by the United States to spark this significant sell off. It is possible what comes out of this is a cleaner crypto space (think 10 year time frame) but in the intermediate term it looks difficult to be bullish. MACD looks to have topped a while ago, and the more recent signal suggests a breakdown is already occurring.
BTC longs breaks out ATH and surpasses it by a 40%Possible massive longs liquidation, this might not be the bottom. Always use stop loss and be safe.
A this moment you can think ohh btc is so cheap im going to get a bag, i will be a hero, i will catch the bottom.
But witch bottom? the 39k, the 35k one or may be the 29k one, is the last one a broken support? It's true that btc is really cheap and i don't encourage you to avoid buying but is recommended to wait for a confirmation first.
If i open a short now i may short the bottom or i may short one of the bottoms and buy back at 19k.
Conclusion:
Taking in to account that the 95% of the traders losses money, when i see the btc longs surpassing by a 40% the all time high and the USDX too breaking out i would
expect btc to keep falling.
Sometimes the price is going down because the people is selling and sometimes because longs are being liquidated
This is not a financial advice, only my speculations.
Buy and you may catch the bottom i will be happy if you are successful and make profit i only share a possibility.
GREAT CRYPTO CRASH of summer 2021; 65k to 4.5k and back.Well, we have a textbook Eliott Wave's expanding flat on a weekly timeframe.
Not as many shorts as our last low in July 2021!The Bitfinex whale den, as it's known. Unless the whales swam away into deeper waters, why is it that there are less shorts than there were at the last major drop in the price of Bitcoin in July 2021??
I mean, look at the chart. The number of shorts opened is miniscule unless there are plenty more coming.
Or...
Whales and market movers are not confident in a further drop from here.
Maybe they know something we don't.
Bitcoin Longs going insaneEither is going to crash, or it will decouple from the Stock market soon.
Look at this insane candle!
Or Is It Just A Coincidence? Bitcoin!What you think about crossing trends in 2017-2022 Bitcoin Chart?
BTC flyIt's time to buy btc and hold ;)
BTC correction end
buy at 28000 to 3000 dollar
Elliott wave analysis
Btc longs versus price action The amount of longs we see are unprecedented and have usually correlated with price. This divergence suggests a big correction upward soon.
Bitcoin weekly head and shoulder top is established, then pleaseLast month, I published an article suggesting the weekly line here, head and shoulder trends.At the time, the old readers knew that I was a very cautious person, and that I was always in awe of this highly speculative market.
the market has gone through the worst form, perhaps many people still can not understand, why I am always cautious in words and actions.
Because this market is highly speculative, many investors, and do not have too much experience, also have not experienced the baptism of many bear markets, in the face of the current trend, often mentality collapse.Think about those friends who believe in value investing and $100,000.Maybe Bitcoin can really reach 100,000, or even a million dollars one day, but how many people can survive until that moment?
Most people, in a bear market, lose confidence and are eventually swallowed up by the market.Because the darkness may not be the most terrible thing, but you are in the dark, still do not know when this state ends is the most terrible.
Back to the chart, we see the weekly uptrend line sold out and the head and shoulder chart established.However, the weekly line level is very large, and the running time is also very long, so the head and shoulder top caused how much damage, it is hard to say.
But it doesn't matter, as old readers know, I like to use the macd + ma strategy, some people say this macd is too dull.
Now you see, there's nothing wrong with being slow. Too aggressive operation, we will be caught in a bear markett. Seemingly simple indicators are often more useful.
Where will the weekly decline go?We can look at a few supports below,
The first is the ma144-week line, which is currently around $26,000,
The second is several value bands, 31,000,21,000,14,000,
The third was the June 2021 low, at approximately $28,800.
Let's first look at the front low support, where there is also the possibility of a box.
If you don't respect the market, the market won't love you.In the past month, most of the fake coins have been halved.Such a trend, no value at all, so this highly speculative market, many people want to live, must have superhuman ability.When you want to make some interest, people are thinking about your principal.A zero-sum game market, if you make a little mistake, you will lose all over it.
The pain of retail investorThe trend seems to accelate for the retail long possitionong. Let's wait for it to be decimated and buy it back right then.
BTC shorts: a useful tool to anticipate potential tops & bottomsI just recently found this tool useful in timing the approximate time to be ready to sell or to buy BTC. If you backtest, it predicted correctly the 64k & 69k tops. However, during the 29k bottoming process, there was so much pessimism that the shorts continue for a while even after bottoming. But then there was already volume of buyers so BTC went up & the shorts again fell after confirming the reversal.
The whole month of April 2022 saw BTC falling consistently from key resistances. We may see the same thing happen again in May according to this chart. We have not yet seen the elevated levels of shorts yet inside the box.
A good time to start accumulating may come in end of May or early June when it reach the top of the consolidation box (0.618 Fibo) awaiting reversal or even to BO for even more shorts. (Remember “Sell in May & Go Away”?)
In case of BO & holding above box, we may see parabolic selling of BTC going into early June but the BTC bottom-reversal will be fast once sentiment changes from bearish to bullish anytime within June to July.
Approximately August may be a potential time to sell when the bottom of box is reached once again where everybody seems bullish & shorts are again at its lowest. (Be a contrarian)
Not trading advice
BTCUSD PRICE ACTION ALLI will make the right decision according to the movements on the chart
On a small scale it is currently being formed
LL and LH
Due to the breaking of these levels, we can touch higher targets
But if we continue to the bottom floors and ceilings
And even below 34,500 and even below 32,900
I think so
MA 200 weekly timeframes in the range of 22-23 thousand dollars
It is moving
I'm still hoping on a larger scale
Go back to the market and start raising the floor and ceiling
And so on when resistance 42 and even 48 is broken
ATH I'm optimistic
The bull is not finished for me yet
I was always in the bear market, especially at $ 69,000
But now I have a positive opinion about being climbed and high movements
There is a lot of fear in the market
BTCUSD PRICE ACTIONI will make the right decision according to the movements on the chart
On a small scale it is currently being formed
LL and LH
Due to the breaking of these levels, we can touch higher targets
But if we continue to the bottom floors and ceilings
And even below 34,500 and even below 32,900
I think so
MA 200 weekly timeframes in the range of 22-23 thousand dollars
It is moving
I'm still hoping on a larger scale
Go back to the market and start raising the floor and ceiling
And so on when resistance 42 and even 48 is broken
ATH I'm optimistic
The bull is not finished for me yet
I was always in the bear market, especially at $ 69,000
But now I have a positive opinion about being climbed and high movements
There is a lot of fear in the market
BITCOIN - DOUBLE TOP FORMATION#Bitcoin in a typical double top chart pattern
This week we broke the neckline which suggests the market should be trending towards the next support at $30,000.
Will $btc respect this or not?
Time will tell...
