_HIDDEN_BTC_3RD_HALVING_CHART_2022Charts full cycle trend. Logarithmic regression allows you to model price behavior. Where more accelerated growth happens earlier on and then as time goes on it starts to level off a bit.
BVOL24H trade ideas
Follow up to BTC Longs Bubble In 2022 I posted my theory the BTC longs chart had bubble like tendencies. I was partly correct. I forecast longs would spike and then drop.
They didn't spike. Did drop.
My forecast here was based on the expectation people would close out longs near the low and there'd not be much participating in the rally. That's how things realistically go. Social media will pretend otherwise - but that's what happens. Here, most BTC bulls exited at the low. That's the realities of market pressures.
It's easy to say you'll hold when things are high. Hard to hold when we're dropping 20% in a day and major exchanges look like they're going to go down in a domino effect.
Now I'd venture a forecast the BTC longs will begin to rocket again - anti-correlating with price downtrending.
If it was all a short squeeze, it was very efficient. What a long way we've come from the panic over the SBF thing.
When I posted the points warning of a short squeeze coming the short interest in BTC was over 9,000.
Today, the short interest in BTC is at an all time low.
We now into the area where there'd classically be most risk of a rug pull setup in BTC, but we have very few people interested in betting on it.
Shorts underwater again.Just a quick one.
Textbook example of a dump to grab liquidity and trap late short sellers.
Bulls grabbing fuel to help drive the next leg up and wash out over leveraged long positions.
You can see pretty clearly using the bixmex short positions vs btc price.
Long and chill $BTCbing bong, Joe biden has dementia and were all gonna die in WW3 but lets make some internet gold!!!!!
BTC SHORTS BTC is short at the support line
March 2022
March 2023
It can break down our bounce, which makes sense when looking at the historical 12M chart and 46K candle resistance.
We are at a time when we should expect a big break out of 60K resistance or break down with 35K and 30K support.
The 17K gap is still open, and it's always on my radar for this or the next cycle.
Unless it is a breakaway gap that, by rule, does not always get closed 50/50.
BTC is going to reach new ATH around $75k-$90k in January 2024First off, Bitcoin is in a very strong bull market since 2009 so likelihood of new ATHs is always higher than not-reaching ATH ever again.
Throughout 2022 Bitcoin was in a clear correction / pullback phase after 2021 distribution.
Market got cleared out of leverage with Luna, FTX, 3AC, etc. fiascos and built ground for a new wave of a bull market.
Bull market started in 2023 with no signs of distribution so will likely continue.
Price is very close to ATH and given 10 Jan 2024 ETF deadline its about time for big emotional swings no matter whether ETF gets accepted or denied.
MA50 D1 acted as a support in 2023 bull market so it's very likely it will act as a support again and price is very unlikely to break through it down.
Other than that price is consolidating in a clear abc Eliott Wave correction below strong $42000 resistance, once it breaks out there is no real resistance until ATH.
Also, price is in a clear Eliott Wave ending diagonal pattern since a couple of months and ending diagonals in BTC bull markets tend to break up with strong impulsive movements.
All cards are lined up there is a huge likelihood of ATH soon with ETF deadline being a catalyst for the move. BTC is a very strong buy now.
Rising Wedge 45500 to take out the shorts, then drop to 41500Possible repeating fractal from the 9th November where there was an ABCDEFG Rising Wedge with Bullish Breakout on the 1st December month
Are we in a Giant ABC?Possibly in a Macro ABC, with the B wave topping out at around 60-60.3k around Christmas and dropping in the new year and what would be the end of the first actual full wave 1 & 2 on the Macro Wave
BTC short-term is going to drop from $42700 to $40k.We are in a bull market and through Dec 2023 clear a, b, c correction is being made.
Wave a and b are clearly done.
Wave c looks like a textbook ending diagonal pattern with waves 1, 2, 3, 4 already done and now we are in the middle of wave 5.
The drop won't stop until price reaches $40k level.
It's a good trade with a very high likelihood of success and amazing risk to reward.
$42700 is a good place to short with a stoploss at $43900 (above wave 4) and take profit $40k.
Bitcoin price and USA Election relationshipBitcoin price and USA Election relationship
A time prediction for bitcoin price rally by usa election
SHORTS AT SUPPORT Expecting pullback
Support
38K
35K
30K
Just in time when everyone's neighbor's cat is bullish.
BtclongsInteresting exponential chart
Nuked to the Golden pocket?
Less long exposure should make btc more free to move upwards..
And the order book is stacked af here albeit the weekly structure looks toppy as
X MARKS THE SPOTI'm starting a new series of analysis called X MARKS THE SPOT. A fun and simplified way to present price targets without the "fluff". I will save all my results into a database and present yearly reports.
The X represents our price target - obviously - however as many of my followers have witnessed throughout the years, my self taught analysis tends to be extremely accurate. This will be a good way to measure accuracy, something which should be deemed impossible. The X represents our goals which may happen before or after the predicted time frame. Above and below the target are my support/resistances. They are not traditional and instead curated with my analysis Having said that, it is important to exercise risk management. Now, lets begin this series and the life people bring to it.
I will incorporate entry and stop loss in future analysis as well.
BTC topping out around low 50s then coming to test 28-34k = MOONHello,
Green money flow curling up. I see alot of resistance ahead . BTC seems to be gasing out.
I see a top out at low 50s because of the thick resistance.
This would line up perfectly with what market cipher (lower indicator)
Creating a smaller wave (marked yellow bottom) which then sends us to the moon with a thick green money flow wave.
All of this perfectly times with the 2025 halving , multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 which could tank the market and more wars, covid before elections ETC.
100k is the dream but im realistic and my track record shows.
I shorted 46k in March 2022 when everyone was longing, proof in my "ideas"
BTC longs decreasing... what could it mean?I think we are heading for a retracement rally, once we get a correction from the rally longs will begin to climb again... if BTC smashes through my retracement levels of 48-53k my thesis is absolutely wrong...
Bitcoin $52kBull to bear perspective for the next year and a half.
52.3k rejection and an assessment to see if the recent parabolic trend breaks, if so structure needs to be assessed for potential head and shoulder formations. Downside target could be as low as 7.2k. Always assess risk and always be prepared to be wrong.
The downside drop is contingent of a bearish outlook on the stock market, and for the interest rate hikes over the last year to finally take effect. Also the swing from 3k to 69k, it would be ideal for price to rationalise this sudden rise by coming to the lower levels sub 10k before commencing the actual big bull. For now, enjoying these mini bull and bear cycles seem to be the name of the game rather than hodling and hoping. Further, a rejection at 52.3k in January would be the ideal time for an ETF approval, as we have seen approvals lead to large declines in the past.
:D
This is what whales are doing. Bitfinex BTCLONG chart. They cought technical tops and bottoms (Not absolute tops or bottoms)
tgt 40,600: Confluence lives matterIm seeing confluence between the W1 CNH target of 40,609 and the H4 triangle target of 40,961.
Be on the lookout for the retest of the 37,500-38k level.
Kubitsuri Reversal CandleThe Kubitsuri Reversal Candle just printed on BTC weekly. It is considered a weak reversal candle due to the upward thrust to make the long lower wick.
I am more bearish than bullish over the next few weeks, as we have had a good run and BTC needs a breather, I think.
Conservative entry for the 3-candle reversal pattern still being printed is around 35k. I'm not conservative.
BTC MoonI draw like shit but here it still is, green is patter from 2018 cycle, black is prognosed btc price movement in the coming years, same pattern as 2021 cycle
How it has been going and how it isCurrently my prediction for the last 6months has been fairly close with the price movements, we fell into the accumulation zone and now I will be predicting the price movement until march. My predictions are off historical movement, not doing wyckoff, elliot wave, etc.. anymore as I have found that they are meaningless in the economic state of the world. 10-12k bottom I still feel is relevant wont see that until January or February, the way the price moves to those levels are irrelevant as well, as long as we get to those levels. I will become a bulltard again when we get to those levels as I see a lot of the market over extension being over by that time and then the shorts will then be at risk capitulating the price as they get wiped from the order books. Instead of being scared at those price levels do what everyone else is NOT doing BUY and hold til Sept of 2025 and you'll be happy.
Over and out.
-KewlKat
Don't fall for the fake Bitcoin "Double Bottom" This will appear like a bullish double bottom formation, but neckline around 27500 - 27950 wont break.
Yes it will pump a bit more. Traders will end up trapped longing this BTC Pump. But the probability speaks against going above 28k range again.
Bitcoin will do back down after it wont be able to break mid/upper 27k region.
