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Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index

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🅱️ Game Changer | Bitcoin Bonds | El 🇸🇻 SalvadorThis is how the game is changed. This is how the game is changing. This is a game changer. El Salvador approved a new law to allow themselves to raise funds through Bitcoin-backed Bonds. The vote went 62 vs 16, just so you know how pro-Bitcoin the El Salvador government is. They like Bitcoin more than everybody. This is obviously the first time ever this is being done. El Salvador's president and government must have some seriously smart, wise and financially advanced advisors. Who's advising them? Must be the smartest people in this world. They intend to raise funds to a build new town called Bitcoin City as well as to buy Bitcoin (fair enough) in order to take advantage of the upcoming bull-market and share the profits with the bondholders. We are sending our best wishes and good vibes to these people and wishing them the best possible kind of success. We love you and hope you guys do great. Keep up innovating and the great work. The world is watching and will absolutely follow. Thanks for being first. Namaste.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by MasterAnanda
5
🅱️ ₿ Weekly, Best Case Scenario... First Time Since April 2020After recovering from March 2020 low bitcoin moved above EMA10 signaling the start of the bull-market. In this bull-market, the first time that bitcoin dropped below EMA10 it happened in May 2021 after the $64,862 All-Time High. This signaled the start of the bear-market with a 55% drop. A dead cat-bounce followed which ended in a double-top in November 2021... Guess what? Bitcoin moved below EMA10 on the weekly timeframe... Signaling the start of the 1 year+ correction. Only slightly in March/April did bitcoin managed to move back above EMA10 but a rejection soon followed and the bear market resumed. Now, for the first time since April 2020, bitcoin is moving above EMA10 to the upside on the weekly timeframe, signaling the potential switching from the bears (red) to the bulls (green). Here let's take into consideration the best possible scenario for the next target: Fib. extension gives us two major resistance levels (targets): 1) $35,928 2) $48,557 Trend-based Fib. extension gives us the following two: 1) $40,356 2) $55,721 So instead of looking at the worst case scenario, let's look at the best case scenario possible. These are the potential target for a recovery/relief rally in 2023. Namaste.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by MasterAnanda
7
BTC looks interesting because of how boring price is right nowThe last big move of BTC was when FTX collapsed, it was essentially a blackswan event because of how big FTX is. But since then, volatility in BTC price has been extremely low, there was a bounce to resistance zone of around 18.2K but price refused to go to new low. The extremely low volatility and sideway action shows that there isn't much attention in this asset class, sellers stopped trying to send price lower, while big buyers have yet to step in. The situation looks a bit like the 2018 bottom, after a big drop, volatility dropped off and price recovered slowly and quietly when people have lost all hope and interest.
BITMEX:XBT
by timhku
2
🅱️ XBT Short-Term 1H | 8-Jan.Expect this ascending channel to break to the upside... It will only speed up and continue higher and higher. By late January bitcoin should be growing at top speed. Expect the entire cryptocurrency market to grow. Expect the altcoins, big and small, to also grow. Instead of the classic one drops while the other grows, expect everything to grow together after a while, the division will start but only after multiple resistance levels are conquered market-wide. Happy 2023. Namaste.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by MasterAnanda
3
BTC - Finally death zonesEveryone is waiting for a drop between 10-14k. My opinion is quite different. Bitcoin is about to break Dominance to at least 32%, which leads to a very painful drop in trading. Everyone enjoyed the beautiful carpet. It was time to watch everything fall as hard as the moment it took off. The worst scenario that can happen is between 4-8k, where the zones are VERY weak and nobody supports them. This is what everyone who didn't manage to buy at three zeros wants the most. Circle zones are stops where the price is expected to hold and the trade goes up.
BITMEX:XBT
by karbosas
1
🅱️ XBT Short-Term 1H | 2-Jan. Bitcoin (XBT) is moving ahead building momentum... The breakout is going towards the bulls. As usual, this is our short-term timeframe (1H). In this timeframe XBT has gone above MA200 and EMA300, our longest moving averages. This translates into a strong bullish signal. The RSI is really strong now at 67. With these signals in place, we can expect higher prices. Next target is set at $16,840 after the 0.382 Fib. extension gets conquered. Then we have $16,930 followed by $17,059/$17,221. Strong support is set at $16,650. If you want to see additional targets, visit yesterdays trade idea on the 4H timeframe where we look at the resistance levels until $20,000+ 🅱️ (₿) Bitcoin 2023 | Multiple Higher Lows Since 2022 | $20,960 Target Happy new year and thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
BITMEX:XBTLong
by MasterAnanda
3
Bitcoin Historical Volatility new low Here we have the BTC historical Volatility Index in blue. Orange is the price of BTC. The teal line is the 50sma for volatility. At the bottom, I have the correlation coefficient (CC) for the volatility index with BTC. I have marked in green when the CC reaches above 0.50, and red when it crosses below -0.50. The fibonacci retracement is fairly arbitrary, but fits nicely between 0.25 and 1.00. In this article, I would like to discuss a little bit about volatility. It is often associated as going up when price goes down, but is a bit more specific in what it is telling us than simply being an inverse price indicator. Next, I’ll talk about the correlation coefficient. It is an excellent tool that every trader, and investor, should learn to use. Finally, I would like to examine some of the similarities between our recent all time low in this index, breaking the low 2018, which proceeded the infamous 2018 capitulation event. Volatility is always an interesting indicator, and is often used to indicate position risk for the asset it is being calculated for. Simply stated, it is a measure of how much the price of an asset moves in a particular period of time. However, it can be calculated a number of different ways. The most common is standard deviation, or how far price is from an average of the price over a recent period of time. The amount of time the data is taken from can also change how the volatility measure acts and how useful it is. More so, because it measures movement, and not so much direction, it can be difficult to use it in an accurate way, as correlation appears to be inconstant at face value. Historical volatility is calculated a little differently. And honestly, before reading a few papers on it for this essay, I had not realized that ‘historical’ referenced the calculation method as opposed to it being the history of the volatility. Historical, or realized, volatility is an estimation of the standard deviation of the price of returns over a particular period of time, in this case, 24 hours. It can also be calculated with a weighting for the trading volume over the calculation period. I have placed a 50ma (150 day moving average) to show a general range for average volatility, and we can see that MA tends to oscillate between 2.5 and 5.0. The correlation coefficient is an excellent indicator that allows you to see, and quantify, the correlation of your current chart with any other chart ticker. Here I have it set to the BLX all time price index for BTC. The higher it goes, the more correlated the movement of the 2 charts are, and below zero indicates an inverse correlation. When CC is near zero, the movements of the two charts are NOT correlated. One of the issues with volatility indexes is their accuracy can vary, and is sometime disputed. My goal in using the correlation coefficient with this index is to parse out when volatility is most useful to pay attention to, and in which direction. On this chart, we can see that when volatility spikes above 10, it is often correlated with big, sudden moves to the downside. However, not all of them are. By using the correlation coefficient, we can parse out the direction of volatility. When CC is in the green, and volatility increases, we see the price of bitcoin moving up, usually in an explosive manner. Likewise, inverse correlation is often showing us downwards movements. I find this a useful way to pull a little bit of the noise out of the volatility index. The previous all time low in volatility of 0.35 occurred on October 28th of 2018, and about sixteen days before the 2018 capitulation event began. About a week ago on Christmas day, we broke that low, going down to 0.34. Very low volatility tells us that price isn’t just moving sideways, but is pretty flat for the most part. And if you have been following bitcoin lately (bless your soul) you know flat and boring is kind of an understatement. The good news is that it’s likely going to get exciting soon. Volatility doesn’t seem to stay at or below 1.0 for very long, and seems to be either correlated, or inversely correlated with price within a few weeks to a month after reaching 1.0. An exception would be from August of 2019 to the pandemic crash in 2020. We can see some similarities in both volatility and the correlation coefficient between the time leading up to the 2018 capitulation event and our recent data in 2022. Price action is also fairly similar (flat and boring) with the exception that in 2018, the line chart had a small move down and back up during the flatness, while we had a small move up and then down earlier in December. Although, I doubt this really means anything. In 2018, we saw a 50% drop after price had already fallen around 70%. From top to bottom, the draw-down was just under 85%. Another 50% draw-down from where we are at the time of writing would take the price of bitcoin to just over $8,000. So what does this mean? Well, I can tell you, for sure, 100%, that I can not tell the future. I will be, however, watching my new chart very closely. But I would say it is likely we’ll be seeing something exciting, and it will probably be in January. Unfortunately, it looks like CC moves down just as fast as price, and as fast as volatility moves up during sudden, capitulation like events. However, Bitcoin always has a way of surprising everyone. If CC moves down to 0, and then puts in another local high in the next week, I would be a little spooked. If it keeps moving up to 0.50, it may be an interesting and unexpected move to the upside. Regardless of what happens, I would encourage everyone to try to understand volatility a little better than you already do, and use the correlation coefficient indicator. It is a simple, yet versatile tool that can be used to quantify data in a way that makes a trading strategy precise. Here’s to 2023, I wish you well, and thanks for reading.
BITMEX:BVOL24HEducation
by MaliceM13
Waiting on BTC to make its moveWaiting on BINANCE:BTCUSDT to make its move. The end is in sight just waiting for it to get down there. Showing support around 13850, 6388, and 3334. Fib showing Golden zone around 7019 with potential to go as low as 4116. The 2018 cycle ended where BTC is currently sitting. The 2018-2019 downtrend was approx. -75% and we are currently at -73% is this it for BTC? Are we at the bottom? or do we go lower ::Shrugs Shoulders:: I'll be waiting to see how the support at 138XX holds up and see what it decides to do to make any moves, but I will be watching and waiting to make my move. ** Note: I do hold BTC and a handful of other cryptos. My thoughts and writings are my opinion and by no means is it to be considered financial advice. **
BITMEX:XBTShort
by UnknownUnicorn20353862
1