AP2 trade ideas
Downtrend in Applied Materials?Applied Materials has struggled since the summer and some traders may see further downside in the provider of chip equipment.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher lows between late December and mid-February. Earnings beat estimates on February 13, but conservative guidance pushed the stock below that line. The result is a potential bear-flag breakdown.
Second, short- and long-term moving averages may show bearish trends. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed under the 100-day and 200-day SMAs in September. Two months later, the 100-day SMA slid below the 200-day SMA.
The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed under the 21-day EMA two weeks ago. MACD has also been negative.
Finally, you have the big event of NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia earnings tomorrow afternoon. Given its importance to the entire semiconductor industry, AMAT could be especially volatile around the news.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Pivot on Applied Materials. AMATMy last take on applied materials was dead wrong, but you get that - this is trading. We are still proud to boast around 65% profitable takes overall. This is a good number for retail and institutional trader alike. Brett Connelly boast a stable 54% track record in his book "Alpha Trader."
But back to the idea.
Head and shoulder neckline break with gap and bearish price action. Technically, a congruent flip on VZO, BB%PCT with crosses of the MIDAS line. More bearish moves likely to follow.
Applied Materials Stock Tumbles 5% in Premarket TradingApplied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT) experienced a significant 5% drop in premarket trading on Friday, despite reporting first-quarter earnings that surpassed analyst expectations. The decline was primarily driven by the company's flattish second-quarter guidance, which fell short of market expectations.
Earnings and Revenue Performance
Applied Materials reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.38 for the first quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $2.28. Revenue came in at $7.17 billion, slightly above the expected $7.15 billion and marking a 7% year-over-year increase. Despite these strong results, the company's guidance for the second quarter disappointed investors. AMAT forecasted revenue of $7.1 billion, plus or minus $400 million, below the $7.198 billion analysts anticipated. The projected adjusted EPS of $2.30, plus or minus $0.18, was also in line with the $2.29 consensus estimate but failed to excite the market.
Segment Performance and Market Trends
The company's Semiconductor Systems segment, which accounts for about 75% of total revenue, saw a 9% year-over-year increase to $5.36 billion. However, AMAT expects softness in its ICAPS segment, particularly in China, with a low-to-mid teens quarter-over-quarter decline.
Analyst Sentiment
Despite the disappointing guidance, analysts remain bullish on AMAT. Stifel analysts noted that the ICAPS/China decline is expected to moderate, and strength in leading-edge segments could support mid-to-upper single-digit year-over-year growth. They believe AMAT should not trade at a 3-5 turn forward discount to peers and recommend buying the shares. Mizuho analysts also shared a positive outlook, highlighting AMAT as the #1 global SemiCap Equipment supplier and a key technology enabler with strong AI spend tailwinds.
Technical Analysis
As of the time of writing, AMAT stock is down 5.2% in premarket trading. This significant drop has brought the stock to a critical technical juncture.
Fibonacci Levels
The 78.6% Fibonacci level is identified as a key support zone. In the case of an extreme pullback, this level could serve as a bounce zone for further gains. Conversely, the 38.2% Fibonacci level is acting as a resistance point. A break above this level could spark a bullish reversal, potentially leading to a recovery in the stock price.
Conclusion
Applied Materials' strong first-quarter performance was overshadowed by its cautious second-quarter guidance, leading to a significant premarket drop. However, the company's robust fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment suggest that the current weakness may be a buying opportunity. From a technical perspective, key Fibonacci levels provide critical support and resistance points that could dictate the stock's short-term trajectory.
AMATLooking like an ABCDE wave pattern, h/s formed on last leg up to D. Target for that is around 144$, TL touch coming in around 150$ depending on how long it takes to get there. I'm looking to buy at E, presumably around the 150$ area. Target is measured move of the pattern/, potential retest of all time highs, 230$-250$ area. If trendline @ E breaks south and price hangs out, the trade is bad. If you play it get as close to TL as possible to minimize risk. Not financial advice u do u, GL.
$AMAT with a neutral outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a neutral outlook for NASDAQ:AMAT after a negative under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 87.5%.
AMAT Applied Materials Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMAT Applied Materials prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 180usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $6.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
AMAT bullish breakoutAMAT is has just borken a long term bearish trend and it looks like its on its way to recovery
This breakout can be a fakeout so lets wait till it breaks above 200 EMA and that will be confirmation of the reversal
Check on Daily and Weekly
Entry at 200 + would be great as it will confirm the recovery
210+ will confirm the golden pocket as well
Stop loss @175 is good
Applied Materials Inc. Technical and Fundamental Aspects.Applied Materials, Inc. is an American corporation that supplies equipment, services and software for the manufacture of semiconductor (integrated circuit) chips for electronics, flat panel displays for computers, smartphones, televisions, and solar products.
The company also supplies equipment to produce coatings for flexible electronics, packaging and other applications.
U.S. chip stocks rise on Thursday, January 16th, after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co NYSE:TSM , the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported record quarterly profit today.
In technical terms, Applied Materials stock was not among hyped and scorching-hot Trump-a-Rally assets in November, 2024.
However the most important thing is that in December, 2024 AMAT stocks has been supported by 100-week SMA and now is forming breakthrough of descending top/ flat bottom technical figure, trying to print the biggest over past twelve months 4-weeks upside swing.
In fundamental terms, Applied Materials NASDAQ:AMAT is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 22.12. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of more than 25 for Semiconductors industry peers.
Another Semiconductors industry peers are being trading as follow - a Forward P/E ratio for Nvidia Corp NASDAQ:NVDA is presently 53.30; for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing NYSE:TSM is 34.92; for Broadcom Inc NASDAQ:AVGO is 191.80; for Asml Holding NV NASDAQ:ASML is 40.08; and for Advanced Micro Devices Inc NASDAQ:AMD is 106.63.
The main technical graph for Applied Materials Inc. NASDAQ:AMAT indicates on a forming breakthrough of descending top/ flat bottom technical figure.
The nearest upside target is considered by our team as a 6-month highs near $ 215 a share, and the far target is considered as a Double Top technical figure around $ 250 a share, that can be achieved over next 6 months.
Bullish Shark PatternI did a post on this before, but I am reposting because it got a confirmation back-test double-bottom. This is especially good because the local low backtested the high from January 2022. The shark harmonic with a 1.13 fib retrace.
Downtrends Finding Support for the Next Uptrend: AMAT ExampleNASDAQ:AMAT was over-speculated in 2023 and then had a top formation that trended down starting in July 2024. This is still considered technically to be an intermediate-term trend correction. The selling started at an all-time high.
HFTs are constantly in the mix, selling down. However, the shift of sentiment has started and there are gaps up recently.
It is NOT in a buyback mode but the stock is finding support from the 2021 highs, which is strong support. This should provide the basis for the beginning of a bottom formation.
AMAT volume gap fill to 185AMAT volume gap fill to 185, there is no volume till 185 and that should fill. also at 185 there is a POC for volume profile which is is critical resistance.
Right place, right timeWe are at the right place and right time, buyers showed their hand at 167~168, if we can hold it here, we can easily take this thing back to 200~210 in 6 to 8 weeks.
AMAT finding a bottom?I like that the price it has pulled back to coincides with the previous high in Jan, '22, which became resistance in Dec '23, and that the 0.50 Fibo retracement is in the same area. It needs to hold and find support here. If so, the next leg up should be ~75-100%?
Bullish Shark PatternThis is especially good because the local low backtested the high from January 2022. The shark harmonic with a 1.13 fib retrace at the backtest but no confirmation double bottom, instead it formed some sort of three rising valley.
AMAT Oversold to 138 ?RSI Oversold (Under 35)
Consistent demand for Semis Expected
128 -> 138 Ranging
PT: $138
$AMAT with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NASDAQ:AMAT after a negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 28.57%.
AMATThe AMAT stock is on an uptrend on the daily timeframe, as I have mentioned several times. It has been able to maintain the upward momentum, and in the session before last, it opened with an excellent buying gap. This is a high-margin trade with a risk-to-reward ratio of 3:1. You can enter around $190, with a stop loss below $170. Your target is a new high above $255. Good luck to everyone!
Applied Materials May Be OversoldApplied Materials has struggled since the summer, but some traders may think the chip-equipment stock has rebound potential.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the sharp drop on October 15 after industry peer ASML issued weak guidance. AMAT kept sliding for more than a week before trying to stabilize and make a higher monthly low relative to August and September. That could mean buyers were active.
Next, prices are still near the bottom of the range. Does that provide opportunities for favorable entries?
Third, the bounces are occurring slightly above AMAT’s previous record from 2022. That may suggest new support has been established above old resistance.
The rising 200-day simple moving average may further reflect a longer-term uptrend.
Finally, stochastics are rebounding from an oversold condition.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
$AMAT can move lower if it takes out Fridays Lows at 183NASDAQ:AMAT looks to be poised to head lower if it can confirm the previous channel on Friday at 183. If price can close below this area we can potentially see a flush to 173.39 which is last months low and our closest Demand area.
AMAT - Applied Materials, Inc.Applied Materials, Inc. provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. It operates through the following segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display & Adjacent Markets. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment for etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The Applied Global Services segment provides solutions to optimize equipment, performance, and productivity. The Display & Adjacent Markets segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes, equipment upgrades, and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices. The company was founded on November 10, 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.
AMAT MACD histogram about to cross upAMAT also has a RSI divergence. The tech sector is making a comeback and AMAT has the potential to rally even more.
Applied Materials Inc. | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators on Trade Set Up in General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Active Sessions on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
* Weekend Crypto Session
# Trend | Time Frame Conductive | Weekly Time Frame
- General Trend
- Measurement on Session
* Support & Resistance
* Trade Area | Focus & Motion Ahead
# Position & Risk Reward | Daily Time Frame
- Measurement on Session
* Retracement | 0.5 & 0.618
* Extension | 0.786 & 1
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
