CAT High Vol, then another dip lower IMO2008 and 2011 there was very high vol before another move lower (red boxes), call it the after glow of the oil drop, which this time could be worse. China not looking good at all. Deflation worries everywhere but here in the US? Think of what this will do to real estate prices, especially China already has ghost towns, and those banks, can govt bail them all out? Oil companies, oil loans, and those banks,m who will bail them out? Case Schiller said we are topping now. Every other currency debasing, and high yields chasers are running out of options. Does not look good folks. If these , and Greece failure, and Germany's love for austerity derails a Euro QE, wow. Could bring about a need for global QE , maybe 5 trillion, to bail everybody out, hey maybe we will all gets checks in the mail from....? About ready to jump in the gold miners swimming pool. My big toe is in the water. AT has what 65 to 70% business outside US? Might wait out this High Vol period in cash, and watch closely for another major dip, which would either lead or follow and major market correction, coming soon to a theatre near you.
CAT1 trade ideas
CAT updatea couple things can happen from here. CAT, by percentage was the greatest looser of its piers yesterday. Previous post, was wondering if I was wrong, and we might have an ABCD up. But kept puts in play, still in play. Could hit TL and bounce, but how strong, and complete the ABCD down to overall TL, whgich would confirm moon cycle "gravity" effects right on cue (vertical lines).
Caterpillar Inc -CAT -Daily -Retest of Distribution Top - ShortThe chart shows the pattern, setup, triggers, stops and targets.
The trade sets up from the low volume rally back to the frequent trading zone over 104, up to 110.
There is a "time at mode" buy signal that is failing quite dramatically if CAT doesn't reach 107.70 by Monday's close of trading. The downside target appears to be at the 96 level (+1/-1, or 97-95). Stops are just over the recent swing high plus a point or so. Stops @ 104.20 and up.
Tim November 14, 2014 3:30PM EST 101.39 last.
Bearish Continuation Wedge (How Reliable It's)$CAT was low risk short-candidate as it approached 38.2% FIB. Posting earning momentum faded away as price approached that resistance, and if price reverse from here it may suggest a higher probability that we may see a new low or new lower low that will be hard to believe after strong earning and guiding higher. Not many analyst increased their outlook or EPS last few weeks after earning. From technical point of view, price seems to roll back to recent gains. A Continuation Wedge (Bearish) represents a temporary interruption to a downtrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted upward against the trend. During this time the bulls attempt to win over the bears, but in the end the bears triumph as the break below the lower trendline signals a continuation of the prior downtrend. If you decide to take short position, make your stop loss at recent swing high at and around 103 area. If you want a real time alert try us www.2waytrading.com
$CAT - daily chartCaterpillar just broke down through its 200 day moving average for the first time since January.
Last time was a buying opportunity...
...Is this time different?
The daily Williams %R remains below -20; this indicates negative pressure.
If $CAT can't hold above ~$98 then it could fall to $92.19 and then ~$90.
Neckline = Channel BottomSince making a TOP in May 2011 around 117, Caterpillar wasn't able to make another high, it merely retest previous top and subsequently freefall to ard 80.
From the latest development, price of caterpillar is engaged in a downtrend channel.
Coincidentally, a 100% Head & Shoulder pattern just formed after friday's closed, moreover, the neckline is also part of the channel bottom support.
We will see on Monday how strong the support is.
CAT classical "h-pattern"This construction mashinery company entered into strong uptrend since December 2013 after it broke up major consoldation resistance in the mid $80ish area.
Now stock with the whole sector ($MTW, $TEX, $DD, $JOY) showing relative weaknes vs broad market.
I use my 8 and 21 EMA to measure short term sentiment ant to make adjustments if i am positioned. It dropped its 8/21 EMA on 20th of May first time since mid March. And settling for a nice h-set-up which is classical pattern in technical analysis.
Break down below $100.72 may attract more active, swing traders and I expect to see some follow through.
Stop above previous swing high at $104.50 makes this trade attractive from R/R point of view.
Target is $95 previous base support level, 200 EMA.
All traders should manage this trade depend on their time-frame and strategy.
(Update): Caterpillar builds new support baseCaterpillar price managed to breach above 61.8% fibonacci level and trying to build support base above it, which assists to push the price for more positive targets, waiting for our main target around 116.94.
More support comes from the EMA50 to protect the positive scenario.
Caterpillar gets a positive motiveOn the 4-hours chart, we witnessed a double bottom formation completed by breaching 99.70 level, this pattern has the ability to push the price to head north targeting the recently recorded top at 116.94, followed by breaching this level to open the way for more gain.
EMA50 supports the bullish wave, while breaking below 97.60 will stop it.
CAT Bullish WeeklyOn a weekly chart CAT is setting up nicely for a breakout move. It is in a tight consolidation range which Bill Williams refers to as the saddle point. I have highlighted the first bullish fractal. Will be setting my buy stop 2 ticks above that high. One could also put in a short entry on the fractal below the alligator. Either way this is a high probability setup.
My stops would be just below the alligator (blue line) for a low risk entry or as Williams says taking your trade in the low rent district LOL. My first target would be 50% retrace from the high of the sell off..