DJT Is Down 68% From Its Peak. Is It Close to Turning a Corner?President Trump’s Trump Media and Technology Group NASDAQ:DJT announced this week that its board has authorized up to $400 million of share repurchases at a time when the stock is down some 68% from last fall’s peak. What does technical and fundamental analysis say could happen to the social-media firm’s stock next?
Let’s take a look:
DJT’s Fundamental Analysis
Trump Media and Technology Group is the operator of the "Truth Social" social media platform, the "Truth+" streaming platform and the "Truth.Fi" fintech brand.
The company plans to make stock and/or warrant buybacks through open-market transactions, with all repurchased shares retired.
It will pay for the buyback program out of the firm's balance sheet, which had $759 million in cash vs. just $27.2 million of liabilities as of March. (DJT’s cash position is separate from its recently announced $2.3 billion investment in Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD .)
In addition to share buybacks, management authorized the company to repurchase convertible notes from time to time through privately negotiated transactions. DJT had entered in May into a subscription agreement to offer 0% convertible senior notes due in 2028 as part of a roughly $2.5 billion fundraising effort that included other convertible notes and an equity issuance.
As for earnings, Trump Media will likely report Q2 results in early August, although the firm hasn’t yet announced a firm date for doing so.
Last month, DJT reported a $0.14 Q1 adjusted loss per share on $821,200 of revenue. However, Trump Media only went public in March 2024, so we don't have much in the way of historical earnings data to compare that to.
DJT’s Technical Analysis
With few fundamentals to look at, we’re mostly left with technical analysis to assess this stock. Here’s DJT’s chart going back to last fall:
Readers will see that the stock has been mired in a so-called “falling-wedge” pattern of bullish reversal since very late last October.
DJT made serious attempts to break out of the pattern to the upside in January and again in May, but has yet to do so.
That said, the stock found support at the pattern’s lower trendline in January, early April and May. Typically, it tends to take a stock two to three touches at these patterns’ tops and bottoms before shares see a breakout.
Meanwhile, DJT has also been unable to retake its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red line). Nor has it managed to retake its 50-day SMA (the blue line) or its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line).
Still, the stock has remained within striking distance of all three key moving averages. As a reminder, the 50- and 200-day SMAs tend to impact decisions made by institutional portfolio managers, while swing traders rely more on the 21-day EMA and other EMAs of shorter duration.
As for DJT’s other technical indicators, the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) has been weak for a month, but is currently flirting with entering technically oversold territory.
Separately, Trump Media’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is postured rather bearishly.
The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is below zero, as is the 12-day EMA (the black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line). The 12-day line is also below the 26-day line.
That means there’s not a lot of optimism for this stock right now, but at least there’s also not much of a gap between DJT’s 12- and 26-day EMAs.
All in, DJT’s chart doesn’t look overly positive in technical terms, but a number of indicators say the stock could turn a corner. Add it all up and this might be a stock to keep on your "watch list" for now.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in DJT at the time of writing this column.)
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