$GME - Maybe somethingHi all,
Don't get your hopes high, as of a couple of weeks now GME, XRT and those other basket stocks have been seeing a few swaps with a higher than usual cost. Typically when this happens it means something's going to happen within 5-15 days at least according to me. For example when we were dropping down like a brick to 24, there were no swaps above $1 mil, suddenly since a bit over a week now swaps are picking up a bit with some >$1m swaps indicating a small buildup of something. The amount of $ spend on swaps is not anywhere close to what happened with other runs which might indicate that we're in for a tiny run.
It's a bit unusual for GME to see larger or equal amounts of $ spent on swaps than what is spent on AMC. Again, the amounts aren't insane compared to other runs, but are still indicative of a bump incoming. Please note that random Powel announcements, CPI bs or random intentional scares can always happen and will always be the perfect excuse to just ram the market into the ground on the market's most bullish days and especially Meme Stock run days.
I think the current price action and what's to come is mostly retail (thetagang) dipping their feet in now that they know the quarterly playbook and know when to sell and not sell puts. Another part of it is hopefully last month's settlement being deferred somehow to September like what happened with February 2022 where a tiny run happened but most was deferred to March, that or settlement ocurred during the mega dip of August. Anyway, i think this is mostly thetagang's doing as i've seen them tell each other to wait before selling calls or puts etc which indicates they now understand the playbook and might be affecting everything.
All in all, Sept looks weak for a run. If there is one, i think it'll be weak-ish like $31.4 kind of weak. March seemed weak too and then it blew up, so you never know. Keep that in mind. I don't think anyone expected March to happen and that's why everyone was caught off guard and the price managed to run that high. Will be interesting to see what September does.
Here's some swaps from the past ~5 days ish that are slightly unusual.
-GME $27.62532679 QTY:100,000 Cost:3,000,000, Trade:NEW-Amendment Expiry:2026-11-13 PreviousExecutionDate:2021-11-10 ID:430119421
-GME $27.62532679 QTY:100,000 Cost:3,000,000, Trade:NEW-Amendment Expiry:2026-11-13 PreviousExecutionDate:2021-11-10 ID:428544542
-XRT $67.34842157 QTY:280,000 Cost:19,000,000, Trade:NEW-Amendment Expiry:2032-06-04 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-06-02 ID:428543151
-XRT $100 QTY:30,000 Cost:2,000,000, Trade:NEW-Termination Expiry: PreviousExecutionDate:2021-01-04 ID:428420120
-GME $36.83376914 QTY:120,000 Cost:4,000,000, Trade:NEW-Amendment Expiry:2026-11-13 PreviousExecutionDate:2021-11-10 ID:427892329
-GME $43.86061112 QTY:51,000 Cost:2,000,000, Trade:NEW-Amendment Expiry:2023-01-25 PreviousExecutionDate:2021-12-21 ID:427891743
-GME $19.97363499 QTY:35,000 Cost:1,000,000, Trade:NEW-Termination Expiry:2026-05-28 PreviousExecutionDate:2021-06-01 ID:427790074
-GME $29.69945297 QTY:79,000 Cost:2,000,000, Trade:NEW-Increase Expiry:2023-10-09 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-06-22 ID:426806358
-AMC $15.00000004 QTY:180,000 Cost:3,000,000, Trade:NEW-Trade Expiry:2023-09-07 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-09-07 ID:426517030
-AMC $15.00000004 QTY:180,000 Cost:3,000,000, Trade:CANCEL-Trade Expiry:2023-09-07 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-09-07 ID:426517781
-XHB $999,999,999,999,999.99999 QTY:1,400 Cost:87,000, Trade:NEW-Termination Expiry:2029-07-17 PreviousExecutionDate:2021-11-17 ID:428511808
I only track XHB because it has a strong relationship to XRT and this monstrosity appeared. Hopefully a clerical error.
Anyway if there will be a tiny price bump, it may occur on Wednesday-Thursday next week which is almost exactly 15 days from when some pretty large swaps were filed for KO and BRK.B (The "indicator" stocks)
Really, the larger than normal swaps started being filed starting on the 2'nd of Sept up to the 7'th. So the +15 days window from there starts on the 14'th of Sept to the 23'rd ish for a run.
-KO-COLA $62.00322181 QTY:3,000,000 Cost:170,000,000, Trade:CANCEL-Trade Expiry: PreviousExecutionDate:2022-09-08 ID:426490917
-BRK-B $249,999,999.49352237 QTY:5+ Cost:250,000,000+, Trade:CORRECT-Trade Expiry:2023-07-10 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-09-06 ID:424583559
-BRK-B $249,999,999.85039584 QTY:5+ Cost:250,000,000+, Trade:CORRECT-Trade Expiry:2023-07-10 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-09-06 ID:424584248
-BRK-B $250,000,001.20846061 QTY:5+ Cost:250,000,000+, Trade:CORRECT-Trade Expiry:2023-07-10 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-09-06 ID:424622634
-XRT $66.44628649 QTY:64,000 Cost:4,000,000, Trade:NEW-Increase Expiry:2023-03-02 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-08-16 ID:424624284
-XHB $62.95258534 QTY:95,000 Cost:6,000,000, Trade:NEW-Partialtermination Expiry:2023-01-04 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-08-26 ID:424578934
-XRT $66.66666691 QTY:130,000 Cost:8,000,000, Trade:NEW-Trade Expiry:2023-01-04 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-09-06 ID:424579433
-KO-COLA $45.75033764 QTY:5+ Cost:250,000,000+, Trade:CORRECT-Trade Expiry:2022-10-26 PreviousExecutionDate:2022-07-26 ID:422184202
I'm too poor to play this, but by all means feel free to keep an eye out for it. Not gonna mention the next more significant run date as i don't want thetagang and others to pick up on it, a man needs money...
None of this is financial advice, i'm not a financial advisor.