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JOHNSON & JOHNSONJOHNSON & JOHNSONJOHNSON & JOHNSON

JOHNSON & JOHNSON

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JNJ trade ideas

Overbought Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Set To Drop 4%Johnson & Johnson has been in a bullish trend since 2009. On a few occasions through this trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar or higher levels, than they are now. These instances have resulted in short-term losses for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending drop for Johnson & Johnson which are laid out below. When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 86.2704. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is well overbought and it one of its highest levels ever recorded for this stock. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3091 and the negative is at 0.5914. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive value is relatively high and is beginning to slow its upward movement. This slowing momentum is an additional signal the stock should turn downward soon. The stochastic oscillator K value is 93.2126 and D value is 92.3311. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is very overbought. It cannot sit at this level much longer. Once the K value crosses below the D, the stock should begin to drop. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria which culminates in an oversold or overbought alert. That signal will occur within the next few days once the stock sees two days of consecutive drops. Because this signal will go off after continued drops, now is the best time to enter a position and take greater advantage of the pending downward movement. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 139 times dating back to 1970. Eighty percent of the time the stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days after the indicator date. Seventy percent of the time, the stock drops 2% and fifty percent of the time drops 4%. In the history of this stock, it always drops a minimum of 4.52% when the positive VI is at or above its current level at the same time the RSI is at or above its current level. This additional study requires the stochastic to be overbought as it is today too. Since this current bull began in 2008-2009, the RSI has never reached it current level. I do not like only having one data point to base projections from, however, multiple signals are at play and support a drop from the stock's current level. The stock is also at its long-term (since 2009) resistance line. The stock has broken above this line twice before. Both times the high of the day broke above this line, while the stock always closed below it. The exact same thing has occurred today. The median drop on those occasions was 9.83% and it occurs over an average of the following 17 trading days. The SAG, record-high RSI reading, and flirtation with the long-term resistance line all point to downward movement for JNJ. Considering the RSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could drop at least 5% over the next 31 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:JNJShort
by StockSignaler
JNJ analysis nearing a peak, 3rd of a 3rd of a 5th waveThis analysis combines channelling, 200 SMA, and Elliott Wave. I noticed a breakout chart by user 'pardis,' and decided to trade the stock. Here is my own analysis of the stock after purchasing a few shares with an entry at 130.98/130.45. There was a breakout around 129, and I looked into the price history to have a better understanding of where the stock possibly is heading towards. Pardis gave an upwards prediction of going to around 139, so I am using an All or Nothing trade strategy, with the intent to use stop losses possibly around end of day, 2R, and 3R. My Elliott Wave analysis shows that there has been a long term since 2015 bullish trend going on, with the stock already in an ending 5th wave movement. The 5th wave seems to also be extended, with the current price action showing it to be in a 3rd of a 3rd wave movement. I predict that this sentiment can last throughout the summer for quite some while, before finally peaking around the levels that 'pardis' had indicated. The stock also seems to have bounced recently off near the 200 SMA during the 4th wave change. This well known stock seems to also be coinciding with some possible peaking action within the indices. As they seem to be going through some impulsive moves upwards, there will likely be a correction sooner or later.
NYSE:JNJLong
by Yqztv09