Bullish Near term to 558-590Expectation is bullish until end of May, then bearish in June to complete corrective wave.
Some confluence here using Elliot Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Gann:
Primary EWT count gives recent completion of corrective A, next stop B. The details of this primary count are below:
- Impulse began 9/24/2012 (not shown) at 31.17
- Wave 1 completed 3/12/2018 (not shown) at 234.88
- Wave 2 retraced 55% of wave 1 and completed 12/24/2018 (not shown) at 122.64
- Wave 3 was a 271% extension of wave 1 and completed 6/1/2021 (not shown) at 637.80
- Wave 4 retraced 25% of wave 3 and completed 10/18/2021 at 535.01
- Wave 5 was apprx = wave 1 (97%) and completed 1/3/2022 at ATH 731.85
- Wave A completed 4/25/2022 at 449.50
* Wave B will likely extend to 557.35 (0.382 of A), 590.68 (0.5 of A), or 624 (0.618 of A)
** Wave C will need an update given the realization of actual level for B, however, based on the confluence (provided below) it is likely wave C will complete around 416 (0.618 of A) coming off wave B at around 590
(Alt. ABC Count (not shown in chart) would indicate the ABC already completed at A = 466.06 on 3/14/2022, B = 574.79 on 3/28 2022, and C = 449.50 on 4/25/2022; however, the subdivision count for this alt wave C is not convincing and it is more likely that level is the A of the primary count)
Confluence (supporting primary count):
- Projected minor bearish harmonic to complete D at corrective wave B level
- Projected major bullish Cypher (half shown, begins X in October 2021) will complete D at corrective wave C level
- Descending Gann fan off the wave 5 (All time high) showing lessening capacity for price (change in price to downside) to keep up with time (i.e. 1/1 angle about to be penetrated in favor of testing the 2/1 resistance – which will suggest wave B occurring in the time frame of 5/13/2022 – early June 2022). The price would then likely drop to test the 1/1 angle by end of June 2022 to complete the C (if rejected at the 2/1, thus completing B)
- Ascending Gann fan off the wave A swing low indicating price is staying in the upper section of fan and keeping up with time to the upside (exceeding it actually, which is bullish near term)
- RSI showing bullish momentum to take the price to Wave B
Not financial advice, but if you are curious how I am playing this:
- May 20 505 calls, hedge with May 13 450 puts (3 calls: 1 put). Will take profits if RSI crosses bearish or if price reaches 550s
- May 27 535 calls to let ride to potential wave B target of 590
- IF the near term bullish scenario plays out and those calls print I’ll be watching for price to drop below 507 and look to enter July 450 puts to play the drop to projected wave C in the lower 400s
- Love this company, love how the LRCX calls and puts move. Ton of doe to be made leveraging these swings!!
Sincerely,
Severus Snape
