$MSTR moving up on large volume NASDAQ:MSTR broke out today on very high volume. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is on a seasonal upward move too. So either NASDAQ:MSTR or NASDAQ:IBIT is my go to stock.
MIGA trade ideas
Why is MSTR at an ATH while Bitcoin is dumping at 60k? Something doesn't make sense here.
Either people closer to the stocks know something about Bitcoin that we don't, or the market became extremely inefficient and there is a great opportunity for arbitrage.
I am not sure how to execute this yet, maybe I leave something in the comments.
MSTR Short-term Short: Bitcoin Holdings and Market DynamicsNASDAQ:MSTR is currently approaching its all-time high of $200, presenting a potential short opportunity due to its significant divergence from COINBASE:BTCUSD performance. As of October 9, 2024, MSTR's market capitalization stands at approximately $36 billion, more than double the value of its Bitcoin holdings, which are valued at $15.64 billion based on 252,220 BTC at a price of about $62,000 per Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy:
Aggressive and leveraged Bitcoin acquisition
Continuously converting profits into BTC at market rates
Long-term holding strategy
Issued convertible senior notes to fund additional Bitcoin purchases
Positioned as a leveraged Bitcoin investment
The Role of Options in Driving MSTR's Price
The options market plays a crucial role in driving MSTR's price higher than its Bitcoin holdings would suggest. Several dynamics contribute to this effect:
Gamma Squeezes: As MSTR's price approaches strike prices of outstanding call options, market makers buy more shares to hedge, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of buying pressure.
Leverage Effect: Options allow traders to control larger positions with less capital, amplifying price movements in the underlying stock.
Speculative Interest: High volatility in MSTR attracts options traders, increasing overall market activity and potentially exacerbating price swings.
Delta Hedging: Continuous adjustments by options dealers can add to price momentum.
Implied Volatility: High implied volatility leads to higher option prices, influencing trader behavior and perceptions of the stock's value.
These multivariate options market forces, combined with MSTR's unique position as a publicly traded company with significant Bitcoin holdings, have created a volatile and potentially disconnected trading environment. The current rally in MSTR's stock price, despite Bitcoin's recent correction, may be partly driven by these options dynamics. However, this situation also presents the possibility of a sharp reversal if Bitcoin fails to recover quickly or if the options-driven momentum slows.
Key Considerations for Traders:
Interplay between MSTR's core business and its Bitcoin holdings
Impact of MSTR's leveraged position on potential gains and risks
Influence of options market dynamics on stock price
Current divergence between MSTR's price and Bitcoin's movement
Potential for short-term correction if Bitcoin doesn't recover quickly
Remember: This idea is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
MSTR at top of bollinger bandsThis stock is basically a leveraged ETF of BTC since the underlying business is declining and a small percentage of the total value. The stock is outpacing growth in Bitcoin and will soon collapse if Bitcoin doesn't move.
$MSTR Mother of all short squeezes done?MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has recently drawn attention as its stock appears to be undergoing a potential short squeeze, causing rapid price surges. A short squeeze occurs when heavily shorted stocks experience significant upward pressure as short sellers rush to cover their positions, which drives the price even higher. This buying frenzy, often fueled by both institutional and retail investors, can result in volatile price movements. MicroStrategy, known for its substantial Bitcoin holdings, has seen increased volatility in tandem with Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, making it a prime target for speculative trading.
Additionally, analysts are observing a potential megaphone top pattern forming on NASDAQ:MSTR ’s stock chart. A megaphone top, also known as a broadening formation, is a technical pattern that signals increasing volatility and wider price swings, typically seen as a precursor to a market reversal. It forms when the stock price reaches higher highs and lower lows, resembling a megaphone shape. This pattern indicates growing indecision among investors, which could lead to a sharp decline once the uptrend breaks. The combination of a short squeeze and a megaphone top pattern points to a high-risk trading environment for MicroStrategy in the near term, warranting caution for investors.
MicrostrategyNASDAQ:MSTR is at an area of value. Ideally, I want to see a breakout above this level. However, if sellers are willing to push the price down to the previous support level we could see a downward movement.
MSTR Swing IdeaNASDAQ:MSTR , COINBASE:BTCUSD
MSTR swing idea.
Earnings are in the way here, and I have no interest in hitching a ride. The IV is jacked, but I do still like an ER run up idea, with the likely target being 200. Continued strength could see the push higher though, especially if BTC breaks out of it's falling wedge on the weekly.
Would still plan to enter at 178.24 and trim at 183.70, but I will be looking at a vert spread instead of regular calls.
Oct25 +180c/-190c for around 3.68 with the underlying at 178.24.
Microstrategy!I’m liking Saylor right now. Everyone is suddenly trying to catch up, and adopt his model, because to not do so is dereliction of duty. MSTR is at the precipice of a major breakout, so I took position in MSTU 2X ETF with 2% daily decay. So, it’s a swing trade. Note that MSTR is breaking out vis a vis Bitcoin, and there is a clear target. I’m selling my MSTU into the MSTR/BTC target.
Calls ideaJust bought calls 10/11 strike 165. Bullish flag and Bitcoin is trading on a demand zone. Looks very bullish.
Looks ready to continue correction and retrace back to 140With everything oversold, sentiment neutral, indicators one-sided, and a correction, many things that could make this a go down 10-15%
MSTR/BTCHi, this chart is Microstrategy denominated in Satoshis. You can see that I changed the currency in the drop-down menu in the top, right-hand corner. So what do we see? Saylor turning bullish sats. It’s always wonderful to find something that is bullish sats, because if it’s not bullish sats, then there’s no reason to be in it. CIFR is also looking like it can turn net bullish Sats, so I have a position in that. And now, Yesterday, I have a position in MSTU, which is 2XMSTR ETF with a 2% daily decay. One strategy might be to sell MSTU when MSTR/BTC reaches your upside target. That is $770 MSTR at today’s Bitcoin price, or $1500 MSTU, and it’s $44 at the week close. Good luck out there traders.
MSTR Call Options I think this is a perfect opportunity for MSTR Calls.
Bitcoin is quiet, at a local minimum, everyone is desperate. The bottom may not be in but it's definitely close.
Options are problematic because of timing. I rarely use them but in this case I believe that the benefits far outweigh the risks.
I bought some options on friday but I'm getting some more options with 1-2 months until expiration.
Opening (IRA): MSTR Nov 15th 121 Monied Covered Call... for a 111.20 debit.
Comments: High IV (88.8%). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call.
Back into MSTR after taking off my previous November setup in profit. (See Post Below). This has earnings on 11/6, so I'll be looking to take it off before then ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 111.20
Max Profit: 9.80
ROC at Max: 8.81%
50% Max: 4.90
ROC at 50% Max: 4.41%
MSTR is well prepared for a BOOM season -- may retest 450 soon!MSTR has corrected extensively since peaking at 450 range last July. Now, LONG POSITIONS has started accumulating at the current price range based on daily metrics.
Significant net buy volume has been registered -- almost overtaking average numbers this past few days. This a definite sign that a new base is currently being cemented for a new ascend movement soon -- for the long term.
It is currently bouncing off a 78.6 FIB level with precision - a major order block support.
Expect some significant upside volatility from the present levels.
Spotted at 325.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard funds always.
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SOME RELATED NEWS:
MicroStrategy Bought 5,445 Bitcoin for $150M Since August
The software ompany now holds nearly $4.68 billion worth of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
By Shaurya Malwa
AccessTimeIconSep 25, 2023 at 8:25 p.m.
Updated Sep 26, 2023 at 12:40 a.m.
Software developer MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchased nearly $150 million worth of bitcoin (BTC) between Aug.1 and Sept.24, it said in a Monday regulatory filing.
"MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, acquired approximately 5,445 bitcoins for approximately $147.3 million in cash, at an average price of approximately $27,053 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses," the company said in the filing.
MSTR returns to a bullish status ? What a hype on the tech values !
After a correction and a consolidation materialised by the range, MicroStrategy will return to a bullish status ?
My idea is the following :
- Technically, we have break the most important Fibonnacci's value : 61.8%
- Fundamentally, all economic figures are in green (inflation decreases, rates too).
That's why I will trade this stocks by waiting the pull-back on 61.8% with the following inputs :
- SL just below 50%
- TP #1 is 100% of Fibonnacci movement.
- TP #2 is the all time high
This is a short-term trade as a swing position - not an investment idea.
Take care GUYS !!
MSTR : 100% retracement done , now time to move upThis is what I found in most bullish and bearish retracements , once you get 100% retracement of up or down move then next level is normally 1.618. Have fun!
Opened (IRA): MSTR October 18th 119 Monied Covered Call... for a 110.75 debit.
Comments: I don't do a ton of single name in my IRA, but with earnings in the rear view and 30-day IV at 81.7%, taking a "poos and giggles" trade here, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a +25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 110.75
Max Profit: 8.25
ROC at Max: 7.45%
50% Max: 4.13
ROC at 50% Max: 3.72%
Main Focus List Review 9-10-24 13 minutesGoing over our Main Focus list looking for A+ setups and how we can position for the upcoming CPI tomorrow.
BitCoin Update - Pre NFPTaking another look at these charts. Probably wont do another BTC update until something new happens.
Main Focus List REview 9-4-24 6 MinutesGoing over our Main Focus list looking for setups and A+ trade opportunities.
Nvda to $82Chart says it all, based on technical analysis.
This is not a financial advice for anybody.
Is Michael Saylor in prison yet? MSTR SELL SELL SELLA fool and his money are soon parted, the problem is, it's NOT HIS MONEY he's gambling with!!
What kind of irresponsible ceo gambles with investor funds and borrows money to buy Shitcoin? Shitcoin will go to ZERO! When the margin calls come and MSTR is insolvent Saylor will be charged criminally. Stock is garbage like Shitcoin
