Bull flag set up to rallywave 2 correction seems finished and is about to rally soon, if not tomorrow NASDAQ:ARM
O9T trade ideas
$ARM lockup expiration could put pressure to the stock NASDAQ:ARM IPO lockup period, prohibiting insiders from selling stock, is set to expire on March 12, 2024. This could put pressure on the stock, particularly if NASDAQ:NVDA is becoming more volatile and moving towards its support around $800-780. This could put NASDAQ:ARM investors under psychological pressure to put some of the stock into the market. Let's see how this plays out.
ARM: $53 | Reset for Fresh Investors WAiTiNGMasa or Softbank's huge position is significant
as it is forced to book GAiNS to cover other FUNDS that got rekt from bad deals
the likes of WeWork Slack Katera Uber to name a few
the press release or promo that Apple Nvivdia the rest taking a position is cool
cool that if it goes below $30 expect these friendly competitors to upsize position for a potential Take Over
for now we wait wait wait wait as NViDiA TOPPiNG or toppish of the Tech sector recently
where its CEO and Snowflake were selling nvidia shares while doing the roadhsow entitled NViDiA SUmmit selling to the PUBLIC while smart money booking HUGE GAiNS
ARM is poised for a take offI spotted a bullish pennant, hinting at an upcoming price surge for ARM stock. However, caution is advised as the lock-out period ends on March 12, which might introduce volatility due to potential selling pressure. Keep an eye on this opportunity, but be prepared for any market reaction.
Arm Holdings: Exploring the Range After Explosive RallyArm Holdings (ARM): Decoding the Recent Surge
The recent exponential surge in the share price of chip maker Arm underscores the fevered speculation gripping the AI sector. Arm, despite not being directly involved in AI, has become a focal point of attention due to its strategic moves in diversification, particularly in markets like automotive, and the sale of subsystem licenses for integrated chip designs.
In Q3, Arm posted impressive numbers, with a 12% surge in headline revenue, reaching $470 million. The Chinese market played a significant role, contributing to a 28% jump in revenue driven by premium smartphones featuring generative AI. The potential for increased royalty rates has further fuelled the positive outlook for Arm.
While there are concerns about Arm's high valuation, with a forward earnings multiple of 85, investor optimism persists. This confidence is anchored in Arm's aggressive growth objectives and its pivotal role in the AI and chip design industries, placing the company at the centre of speculative interest.
Playing the Range: Short-Term Traders on Alert
Arm's post-earnings exponential rally, marked by a gap above January highs and a doubling of share prices, raised eyebrows. However, recent sessions have seen the stock cool off, consolidating within a tight range. This well-defined range presents short-term traders with opportunities:
Bullish Scenario: A decisive breakout above the range, accompanied by high volume, could lead to a retest of recent trend highs.
Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below range could see prices retreat back to a short-term mean such as the 50MA – a level which is confluent with the broken January highs.
The risk/reward ratio is favourable in both scenarios, offering short-term traders’ opportunities to leverage lower timeframes like the hourly candle chart to time potential breakouts.
Arm Holdings (ARM): Daily Candle Chart
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Arm Holdings (ARM): Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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ARM HoldingMy thoughts are that many have not understand that the company have nothing to do with AI, is not a draging up sector company.
The company have 2 divisions: 1 design chip and the 2 is licensing.
Based on those to facts i thing is just a short FOMO witch today after CPI data came out will drag the price of the company down. The second big argument is that the hike come based on IPO and noisy retail investors.
I personally expect a big correction to 100$.
Big up Guys!
ARM Holdings - Got a strong mention in Elons AI interview.Elon mentioned ARM in his AI discussion on Twitter last night as one of the leaders when he was discussing robotics.
twitter.com (39:30 min mark)
"Tesla uses a lot of ARM technology. Almost everyone does actually". ~Elon Musk
Might be worth a look.
ARM: Pull-back before next leg-upI fundamentally bullish on this company and think it might be a potential true-market leader in next market up-trend (if we see one in coming years).
Structurally speaking, I may see full first impulsive structure completed with today's burst into the top border resistance zone for the final wave (c.v of 1).
If this structure will prove to be correct, classical support area for potential correction: 61-55 area.
If price follows through to the upside and closes above todays highs, then next resistance level is: 75-81 zone. Moving above 81 will be a sign to re-consider suggested price structure.
Thank you for your attention!
ARM Holdings Surges Over 45% on Strong AI Chip ForecastsIn a staggering surge, Arm Holdings ( NASDAQ:ARM ), the British tech giant famed for its semiconductor designs, witnessed a remarkable uptick of over 45% in its stock value on Thursday. This meteoric rise was propelled by bullish forecasts, as clientele gear up to fashion cutting-edge chips tailored for artificial intelligence (AI) applications. With the quest for AI-powered devices intensifying, Arm stands at the forefront, poised to reap the rewards of this burgeoning market.
Embracing the AI Revolution
Arm's ascent stems from its pivotal role in furnishing blueprints and intellectual property crucial for crafting the chips omnipresent in today's mobile phones, notably Apple's iconic devices. The company's trajectory has been deeply intertwined with the surge in demand for AI-centric technologies, with customers increasingly gravitating towards Arm's offerings to fuel their innovation in this domain.
Unveiling a Paradigm Shift
Arm's executives unveiled a strategic shift, highlighting the surge in clientele opting for Arm-based central processors in tandem with Nvidia's chips for AI-centric endeavors in data centers. Moreover, Arm's foray into developing AI-enabled laptops and smartphones underscores its commitment to pioneering advancements in consumer electronics. By leveraging its unique model of creating and licensing semiconductor designs, Arm has managed to scale rapidly while maintaining a lean operational footprint.
Supercharging Growth Through AI
Investment pundits underscore the symbiotic relationship between Arm and the AI boom, emphasizing how the company's revenue streams are poised for exponential growth fueled by the AI revolution. Notably, Arm's ability to deliver substantial royalty and licensing revenue reflects its adaptability and resilience in harnessing emerging technological trends.
Market Dynamics and Valuation
Amidst this fervor, market dynamics come into play, with Arm's valuation reflecting its elevated standing in the tech landscape. Trading at 56.46 times its 12-month forward earnings estimates, Arm's valuation surpasses that of industry stalwarts like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. However, its low-float status renders it susceptible to pronounced market fluctuations, underscoring the need for cautious investor scrutiny amidst this period of exuberance.
In essence, Arm Holdings' ( NASDAQ:ARM ) remarkable surge epitomizes the symbiotic relationship between technological innovation and market dynamism, as it harnesses the power of AI to propel itself into uncharted territories of growth and prosperity.
ARM: Good Share, Bad DerivativeOverview
Arm Holdings PLC ( NASDAQ:ARM ) recently had its IPO back in September 2023. Since then it has bounced around between $46-$78 and I think it's gearing for a rally. Unfortunately there is not much room for a confident technical analysis because of ARM's minimal chart history but I believe this company is definitely worth adding to the Watchlist.
ARM supplies semiconductor technology and has made it a company mission to lower carbon emissions. From my understanding they are attempting to lower their technology's carbon footprint by maximizing the processing power of their chips per every one watt of energy. Imagine this as the equivalent of increasing a vehicle's total miles per gallon (MPG).
I have come under the impression that their technology is delivered to a plethora of companies including NVIDIA and Google who, in turn, use it to develop A.I. projects. It is this aspect that makes me speculatively bullish on the company's outlook.
Speculative Projections
According to their official website ARM technology can be found in nearly every modern device and is used by "70% of the world's population."
ARM's market cap currently rests around $69 billion USD which places it around 1B shares. Since its technology is fueling what is essentially an artificial intelligence bubble within the stock market, it is my personal opinion that a $500B market cap is reasonable if not conservative. This would place ARM's share price around $500 which is a 631% upside from the current share price of $68.34.
If you read my other idea on NVIDIA, I've mentioned that outsourcing may become an issue for NASDAQ:NVDA and so I believe that ARM may be able to fill that vacuum should a semiconductor crisis ever occur. A catalyst like this would definitely have the potential for propelling the stock to new highs.
Risk Management
If picking a good company out of a lineup wasn't enough, now the potential gains to losses needs to be considered. For every dollar risked, I believe at least three dollars should be the reward. With ARM I believe those types of gains are possible however this is the one of those exceptions where I would consider holding shares instead of trading derivatives.
I picked through several option contracts, specifically Calls, and noticed that Open Interest was severely lacking on most contracts except for a few expiring within 90 days. Typically 90 days would suffice however with the lack of trading patterns -- and a sense of direction -- I believe this makes derivative trading too risky for ARM. To top matters off, the contracts with high open interest (>1000) would potentially only deliver 1:1 at best case scenario.
All that said, the lack of direction and amount of share value that would have to be gained within a short period of time leads me to believe that investing in ARM Calls would be reckless. The Calls worth owning and that have an expiration greater than 6 months out have a near non-existent Open Interest. While that could always change if ARM starts getting some attention from the market, this may lead to illiquidity and an inability to unload the contract.
Fundamental Analysis
Current ratio (current assets / current liabilities) = 4.33
* Any ratios under 1.00 are considered a financial risk.
Retained earnings = $2.440B which was a slight decrease from $2.457B in March 2023.
* Allows the company to invest in itself (repurchase shares, expand, etc)
Net income 6 Months Ended September 30 = ($5M) loss
* The majority of the loss appears to have come from escalated operating expenses
within the second quarter. This is a drastic 101.5% decrease from September 30,
2022 which had a net income of $339M.
I'm experiencing some difficulty interpreting the Q2 Earnings Call. I am a self-taught analyst and learn on-the-go so I will need to process this information more before coming to a confident conclusion on the fundamental analysis. However, it does seem that operating expenses increased significantly (approximately by 171.8%) in the second quarter alone.
I will make sure to provide any updates to my findings as a comment on this idea.
