Swatch (UHR.SW) Total Collapse – Heading to Zero?💀 "Swatch Freefall: A Stock on the Road to Oblivion?"
🚨 "Swatch: Management Watches as the Ship Sinks"
Swatch Group's recent performance has been nothing short of catastrophic, painting a grim picture of a company in freefall. In 2024, the company reported a staggering 70% drop in operating profit and a 14% decline in sales, with net income plummeting to 219 million Swiss francs from 890 million francs the previous year. This abysmal performance is largely attributed to a sharp downturn in China, a market that once accounted for a significant portion of Swatch's revenue.
The situation deteriorated further when UBS downgraded Swatch's stock to a 'Sell' rating, citing concerns over a prolonged downcycle and structural challenges to profitability. This downgrade was a direct result of Swatch's overexposure to underperforming markets, particularly in China and the United States.
In a desperate attempt to stay relevant, Swatch has resorted to gimmicky collaborations, such as the MoonSwatch series with Omega. While these releases, like the MoonSwatch 1965 and the Mission to Earthphase, have garnered media attention, they reek of a brand grasping at straws rather than innovating meaningfully.
The management's response to this crisis has been woefully inadequate. CEO Nick Hayek's decision to maintain production capacities and workforce levels, despite plummeting demand, demonstrates a blatant disregard for financial prudence.
This stubbornness not only exacerbates the company's financial woes but also signals to investors that Swatch is unwilling or incapable of adapting to harsh market realities.
In light of these developments, it's evident that Swatch is on a trajectory towards irrelevance and financial ruin. The company's inability to navigate market challenges, coupled with ineffective leadership and uninspired product strategies, suggests that its stock is well on its way to becoming worthless. Investors would be wise to divest before Swatch's value erodes entirely.
Swatch ? you are a POS !!!
UHRN trade ideas
Swatch stock is considered a contrarian story for a few key reasSwatch stock could be considered a contrarian investment due to a combination of factors suggesting it's currently undervalued and facing headwinds, while also possessing inherent strengths that could lead to a future turnaround. Here's a breakdown of why:
Negative Sentiment & Challenges:
Contrarian Investment Thesis (Potential Upsides):
Contrarian Classification: Stockopedia classifies Swatch as a "Contrarian" stock based on a composite score of fundamental and technical measures. This suggests that the stock exhibits characteristics that are out of favor but potentially offer value.
Undervalued: Swatch is currently undervalued.
Strong Financial Health: Despite challenges, InvestingPro data indicates Swatch maintains a "GOOD" financial health score with positive indicators. The company has impressive gross profit margins and a strong current ratio, indicating operational efficiency and liquidity.
Solid Balance Sheet: Swatch has a strong balance sheet with substantial cash and equivalents, and significant property value, with very little financial debt.
Dividend Yield: Swatch offers a dividend yield of around 3.92%, providing some return for investors even during a downturn.
Experienced Management & Family Ownership: The Hayek family's partial ownership suggests management is invested in the long-term success of the company.
Potential for Recovery: Swatch itself suggests 2025 "promises positive momentum worldwide," although they acknowledge continued restraint in Chinese demand.
Brands & Market Position: Swatch owns well-known brands across different price segments, giving it a broad market reach.
Swatch (watchmaking): Highly exposed to luxury and discretionarySwatch (watchmaking): Highly exposed to luxury and discretionary consumer spending, it will depend on the demand for high-end watches.
Trading at 32.4% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 16.62% per year
Dividend of 4.29% is not well covered by free cash flows
Profit margins (7.1%) are lower than last year (12.4%)
UHR - Swatch Group - the stock has only been decimated for monthTrading at 41.2% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 18.29% per year
the stock has only been decimated for months and months!
Swatch Group presents a compelling investment opportunity with Omega as the official sponsor of the Olympics, enhancing global visibility and prestige. Additionally, collaborations with renowned brands like Blancpain and Omega highlight their innovative approach. Tissot watches are also performing well in the market, reflecting strong consumer demand. Investing in Swatch means being part of a dynamic and successful portfolio in the luxury watch industry.
Swatch Group UHR: Tissot, Longines, Omega, Breguet, Blancpain...Trading at 19.8% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 5.89% per year
Earnings grew by 7.7% over the past year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Key Insights
Swatch Group's estimated fair value is CHF260 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Swatch Group's CHF209 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
Fair value estimate is 8.6% higher than Swatch Group's analyst price target of CHF240
Swatch, I just doubled my position. This downward ...Swatch, I just doubled my position.
This downward acceleration is simply to discourage investors. It is one of the most powerful watchmaking groups in the world, like Richemond Financial Company...
Swatch sales never stop...
Bullish. I'm doubling my position.
Swatch Group reported a 5.2% increase in annual salesToday , The maker of Omega, Tissot and Longines watches as well its eponymous mass-market plastic watches said its sales increased to 7.89 billion Swiss francs ($9.11 billion), a rise of 5.2% in franc terms and a 12.6% increase when measured at constant exchange rates.
- Trading at 27.5% below our estimate of its fair value
- Earnings are forecast to grow 3.36% per year
- Earnings grew by 21.4% over the past year
- Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
- Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 25.9%
Swatch AG (UHR.vx) bullish scenario:The technical figure Falling Wedge can be found in the daily chart in the Swiss company The Swatch Group Ltd (UHR.vx). The Swatch Group Ltd is a Swiss manufacturer of watches and jewellery. The Swatch Group is the world's largest watch company and employs about 36,000 people in 50 countries. The group owns the Swatch product line and other brands, including Blancpain, Breguet, Certina, ETA, Glashütte Original, Hamilton, Harry Winston, Longines, Mido, Omega, Rado, and Tissot. The Falling Wedge broke through the resistance line on 21/04/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days towards 312.60 CHF. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 285.60 CHF if you decide to enter this position.
The Swiss company said it expects record sales in 2023 boosted by the return of demand in China, Hong Kong and Macau, which was hit by the return of COVID-19 cases last year, and as Chinese tourists resume their travels.
"Group Management anticipates strong sales growth in 2023 in all regions and segments," Swatch said, noting that consumption had quickly recovered in Hong Kong and Macau as well as China after pandemic restrictions were lifted.
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Trading Idea - #SWATCHSELL Limit Order!
ENTRY: 275 CHF
TARGET: 208 CHF (profit 23%)
STOP: 294 CHF
I assume that the price of the SWATCH share can recover in the short term. This would go up to the POI level of CHF 274.
As SWATCH has become heavily dependent on the Chinese market and the Corona fear continues to dominate the markets, further pressure on the share is to be expected.
Swatch Group Swatch Group | Bull flag breakout | This setup only recently caught my attention (I missed the initial channel break). Thus far we’ve moved through and closed above R2. The MACD is a currently crossing above zero and the RSI is at a bullish 64 reading.
This chart forms part of a larger research note and should not be considered financial advice.