BXBT trade ideas
There’s no such thing as the goose lays the golden egg forever!“There’s no such thing as the goose that lays the golden egg forever.” – Jim Simons
I have noticed most people just try to find evidence that justifies their point of view, but there may be other contrarian views that are more objective!
Bitcoin could not hold above its All times high and cross below 60K once again!
I think this sine wave regression analysis should be considered for the next 100 days..!
13 days ago, I mentioned this :
This show will become interesting after October 25th, 2021..!
Data that fits a sinusoidal regression curve tends to fluctuate over time in undulating or wave-like curves. For example, temperatures from year to year tend to undulate in a sinusoidal pattern. Sinusoidal waves are also commonly seen in signal processing and time series analysis.
use this formula
y~asin(bx+c)+d
a:11045.5
b:0.0328144
c:1.46343
d:44570.7
I want a guy who knows enough math so that he can use those tools effectively but has a curiosity about how things work and enough imagination and tenacity to dope it out.
Jim Simons
Best,
Moshkelgosha
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Analysis of BTCUSDLONGS I am still trying to get my head wrapped around longs/shorts, I think I get it or maybe I am completely missing the point, lemme know in the comments 😊
Bitcoin update. Momentum was there and the spot light is shining brighter on Bitcoin every day. A blast from support at 44k brought us just barely to new all time highs. I'm my opinion the world is too afraid to buy at all time highs as strongly as sellers are willing to part. The flash crash on binance is proof that the space is still the wild west, and until there's some sort of security, big money is tepid at best to enter, in my opinion. A dollar cost average approach would seem the safest, so I can see a steady gradual rise in acceptable price for Bitcoin, but huge pumps like this are usually orchestrated by crypto whales, and after the shorts are liquidated and new money comes in at these highs, Bitcoin loves to pull way back to cause capitulation.
Thusly, I could see a retest of the 53-49k levels, with liquidation hunters poking below that as well. A good entry for bull market continuation would take the volatility we can expect from the wild west of finance in to consideration.
There's no doubt in my mind that Bitcoin will achieve some sort of grand use case scenario eventually and be hundreds of thousands of dollars per. It's definitely not going away any time soon, or ever for that matter, unlike other forms of currency and the governments that back them.
Simple 5.12 Risk to Reward Ratio. I expect bitcoin to bounce to 63.5k, in which case I will short it to 57.8k with a stop loss around the April Highs
2017 ATH breakout ideamaybe 57-58k first to flush the late longs, consolidate under and around ATH, moon after in november
Ugly rug pull is comingMichael Saylor is ready to sell his BTC and ETH bags. I give it less than a week before it happens.
The next 6 days..!If we consider the close price as the most important price, I believe few people could imagine Bitcoin crashing from 63565.46 on April 13, 2021, to 29786.83 in 98 days..!
On the other hand, crossing above the all times high in 90 days was not easy to predict as well..!
In 6 days, this Bitcoin cycle ends, but let’s see if it works retrospectively?
It seems it could be considered as a cyclical pattern..!
What do you think about the next 98 days cycle?
Bitcoin support and resistanceFib pulls can give us an idea of levels to watch for during price discovery.
Old chart - but been pretty accurate in trade channelsBasically always long bitcoin, but always looking for the better chances to top up..
Been using this chart to top up anytime we bounce into one of the gaan channels. So far been pretty golden.
The Path to Capitulation. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Targets :
63K BTC Cycle Top is Wave 3 of the MACRO BTC cycle
1.5 - 3 Year bear market
55K .718 retracement of entire bull run.
6.5K Bear Market bottom.
This is a MACRO chart and has many wave configurations in between wave counts so please do not assume what I have laid out will result in immediate movements to those points noted.
Using Elliot Wave Theory I have laid out my own for bitcoins eventual demise. The market makers do quite a good job of keeping everyone fooled, keep the masses bullish buying all the dips on the way down and turning them into bears the moment it finds a bottom pushing the traders to look for short entries at resistances.
We have been sold the dream of all becoming millionaires with 250K bitcoin this cycle throughout 2020 into 2021 along with the failure of the DXY ... sound to good to be true?
Even my own TD financial wealth manager believes the USD will continue falling... wont be much longer he will be managing any of my capital.
(Volume has been accounted for in the Wyckoff theory)
Now into my theory for what just happened and where were going.
From Bitcoins fall from 63K plenty of traders have been faked out, shaken out, liquidated wondering why no more up? The herd was looking for the next bottom grasping onto every 4HR support bar they could find, yelling the 20WMA would hold up, Bullish divergence, double bottoms, sideways for months, accumulation, Michael Saylor announcing buying the the tops just before they dump.. convincing the average person with the confirmation bias they so desired that there was nowhere to go but up as their account size dwindled.
All while blaming Elon Musk for a tweet and moving the market against them.
Then Bitcoin dropped below 30K :O ! Lose support go short they say... well.
This was enough to flip the masses to bearish after our initial A leg down has finished. Even a continuation pattern to the downside had a target of 23K right... that would be too easy and instead of giving a bounce at the May low of 30K it just tagged $1400 lower to 28,600. That was all that was needed to flip the sentiment to BEAR MARKET!!! Now we have the masses calling for 10K, 15K, 23K targets and to set bids as the market moves away from them. Every drop now will drive their confirmation bias to yes this time its going further down "See I told you !" only to find support and bounce up along this rising wedge with a target of 55K before an ABCDE sideways correction as it begins to turn the Bears into Bulls again as they see BTC finding support on the 200 D EMA. This will be the peak of the B WAVE and will result in the largest liquidation event in history.
This is purely psychological warfare on traders, retailers and Michael Saylor unless he is the one who is rug pulling the market and facing margin calls on his over leveraged position of everyone else's money and his children's toy collection to buy bitcoin.
If you can see it... congratulations. If you are biased and trapped in a position one way or another take a moment to step back, breathe and look at things from the opposite side.
Perspective is the best technical indicator you can have not in trading but in life.
Id like to give a shout out to the man who gave me a different perspective, I would consider an angel of sorts that happened to be revealed to me at just the right moment when I needed him the most. Like most angels that walk among us they are not shining icons, they are rough and ragged and they are here to judge your character on how you react to their message or image. Jesus was a damn hippie spreading love and healing and they took him out. I'm not a religious guy but a spiritual one, so you can understand my point.
@BitFink
Thank you for being humble and honest in your analysis, and brash to the haters. I've come to realize over the years that some may come to realize the wrong of their ways and some may not, I can live with that.
Short 🔴 Price will go Down, Bulls will Buy LossShort 🔴 Price will go Down, Bulls will Buy Loss
SVM (Support Vector Machine) forecasts BTC/USDT dump.
AI predicts traders will try to buy the dip.
A liquidation snowball effect could create a fast & volatile crash.
After the shakeout, the new ATH later this year isn't excluded.
Extremely Low Shorts To Longs RatioThis is insane, 3.26% of Open interest in Bitfinex exchange are shorting bitcoin right now. This is extremely low as you know it is a ratio. It can not go below zero it can just be near zero. This is -in my opinion; an indication of extreme optimisim and will probably result in a powerful long squeez. To get this chart use this formula:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS/(BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS+BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS)*100
Buy wave 5 of Elliott wave indicator is sick 😲😲😲Go straight up to ext 5 target and ichimoku target, I think we will have correction soon in this zone because degree and target.
We can wait for correction and next massive wave 5 bigger, look this behavior, confident to hold
BTC:USD LONGSLast time we saw price action and longs like this was the rally after the covid crash. After a cool off, bitcoin continued to trade wayyy higher. I think that is something similar to what we will see here, unless BTC break ath. I truly dont know how it will play out
BTC 2021 IdeaSharing my idea for BTC for the next few months. Copying a fractal from earlier this year.
Tweezers Top, correction is possible!A tweezers topping pattern occurs when the highs of two candlesticks occur at almost exactly the same level following an advance.
A tweezers bottom occurs when two candles, back to back, occur with very similar lows.
Like many other candlestick patterns, tweezers occur quite frequently.
Tweezers are more meaningful as part of other trends, especially pullbacks.
There are additional criteria. The first candle should have a large real body (the difference between open and close). However, the second candle can be pretty much any size. Therefore, the two candles may look quite different. For example, in a tweezers top, the first candlestick may be a strong-up candle, closing near the high. On the other hand, the second candle may be a Doji—a cross-shaped, neutral candlestick pattern—that doesn't close near the high but still has a similar high to the first candle.
reference Article:
www.investopedia.com
The Mother of all Algorithmic TradingIf I had any doubt that the whole cryptocurrency market is ruled by an algorithmic superpower, I don't have any anymore..!
Check this article published on Jul 22, 2021
This show will become interesting after October 25th, 2021..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
