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CADCHF trade ideas

Trade report of 16-1CADCHF: After days of sideways movement, the up-trend appears to have found its way back up. executed a buy at 0.63738. News: Markets are running too far ahead of the music with expectations for interest rate cuts because the battle against inflation has not yet been won. Gita Gopinath, deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, said this on Tuesday during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos. According to the IMF economist, it is likely that interest rates will drop sometime this year, but she is thinking more about the second half of this year. Markets are currently pricing in six rate cuts of 25 basis points for both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. With such a pace of reductions, the policy interest rate in both currency areas would be 1.50 percentage points lower at the end of 2024. According to Goldman Sachs, the Fed will take the first step in March and the ECB in April, chief economist Jan Hatzius of the investment bank wrote in a report published on Monday. The Fed itself assumes three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year. Speech from Governor Christopher J. Waller: Thank you, David Wessel, and thank you to Brookings for the opportunity to speak with you today. In the second half of 2023, I delivered a series of speeches addressing the apparent conflict between the strength of economic activity in the third quarter and continued progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent inflation target.1 I said then: 'Something has to be done' – activity must moderate or progress in reducing inflation will stop. At the end of November, the latest economic data encouraged me that there were signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter, but that inflation was still too high. As of today, the data has been received even better. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown between 1 and 2 percent in the fourth quarter, unemployment is still below 4 percent and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation has been near 2 percent. . For a macroeconomist, this is about as good as it gets. But will it last? Time will tell whether inflation can be sustained on its recent path and will allow us to conclude that we have achieved the FOMC's price stability objective. Time will tell whether this can happen while the labor market is still performing above expectations. Based on the data we have received in recent months, the committee may consider lowering the policy rate in 2024. However, concerns about the sustainability of these data trends require that changes in the policy trajectory be carefully calibrated and not rushed. Ultimately, I have more confidence that the economy can continue on its current trajectory.
by Probeleg
CADCHF SHORTS##REPOST## Market Structure Bearish on Higher Time Frames Price made new all time Lows couples weeks ago, so no much structure on Weekly Using the the previous weekly rejection wicks as Support Daily Rejection Candles at The AOI Broken Daily Support Around Psychological Level Strong H4 Support aswell REMEMBER: Trading is a Game Of Probability : Manage Your Risk : Be Patient : Every Moment Is Unique : Rinse, Wash, Repeat! : Stay Hydrated #Follow#Share#Comment#Boost
Short
by mobbie_zw
1
7 Dimension Analysis For CADCHF🕛 TOPDOWN - Bearish Continuation Setup for CAD/CHF Overview: The monthly and weekly analyses signal a bearish trend, validated by a series of bearish breakouts and consolidations. The focus is now on the daily timeframe for a detailed perspective. 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: Daily 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish - 68% probability of further downward movement. 🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS). 🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive. 🟢 Inducement: Breakout with liquidity sweep indicating continued bearish momentum. 🟢 Pull Back 1st: Awaiting confirmation, position holding is crucial. 🟢 Internal Structure: Bearish. 🟢 Ext OB: Unmitigated. 🟢 Support Breakout CIP: Acts as resistance. 🟢 Post-Breakout Quality: Clearly favors bears, evident in small consolidation with bearish candle size and multiple wicks. 🟢 Traps: Shakeout observed, indicating bearish sentiment. 🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily. 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS Reversal: Head and shoulders, double top. Continuation: Bearish flag with a 38% tilt, shakeout continuation with flag consolidation. Consolidation Rectangle: Small consolidation with shakeout liquidity. 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS Key Considerations: Record session count with multiple dojis signals change in guard. Long wick bearish closing indicates rejection from multiple wicks and doji area. Momentum signals include strict engulfing. 3️⃣ Volume: 🟢 High volume on the breakout confirms its validity. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI: 🟢 Momentum is in a super bearish zone. 🟢 Range shift is evident with proper bearish indications. 🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence observed at the start of the move. 🟢 Loud moves: Momentum shifted from sideways to bearish with a loud move. 🟢 Grandfather-father-son entries indicate a strong bearish setup. 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands: 🟢 Middle band rejection at the middle band. 🟢 Squeeze starting indicates potential consolidation for volatility compression, followed by a wild bearish move. 6️⃣ Strength According to ROC: 🟢 ROC values: CAD 0.37 vs CHF 1.31, indicating CHF is much stronger. 7️⃣ Sentiment: All market parameters and top-down analysis indicate that CAD is under substantial pressure against CHF. The sentiment suggests looking for sell opportunities. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: Daily ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish ☑️ Current Move: Impulsive ✔ Support/Resistance Base: Bearish post buildup. ☑️ Candles Behavior: Bearish long wicks, bearish momentum. 💡 Decision: Sell at open. 🚀 Entry: 0.6443 ✋ Stop Loss: 0.6505 🎯 Take Profit: 0.6118 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO. 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:4.5 🕛 Expected Duration: 30 days SUMMARY: The analysis strongly supports a bearish continuation setup, aligning with the monthly and weekly bearish trends. Key indicators such as candle patterns, volume considerations, and momentum signals reinforce the sell decision. The strategy involves clear risk management and exit criteria.
Short
by Optimum369
4
Major Correction Looms for Key CHF Pairs, Big Moves Ahead?I've been keeping an eye on this pair for some time now, especially since it broke down and stayed below the long-term range set after the 2015 crash. We're now nearing an important point - the 2015 depeg low, which might vary based on your broker. In my experience, Forex.com offers more reliable data, showing a depeg low just under 0.61. It's pretty interesting to see that all the CHF pairs are shaping up similarly, forming bottoming patterns as they get closer to their respective depeg lows. Even CHFJPY is hitting a significant point at 170. With everything that's been happening globally, CHF has been a go-to safe haven in recent years. But looking at these pairs, I'm thinking there's a big correction coming soon, with a lot of CHF selling across the board. Here's my plan for capitalizing on this with this particular pair, as I'm expecting another dip towards the depeg low. On the daily charts, you can see the price slowly edging down, with a notable drop at the end of last month. This happened during the holiday season, when markets can be a bit erratic, showing spikes due to volatility. (check out the image below) If you zoom in on the weekly chart, there's a clear falling wedge pattern forming as the market grinds down. Each new low seems to attract buyers, hinting at a potential shift and weariness in selling. My strategy for this pair is straightforward. I'll be watching my TRFX indicator on the daily charts from now on, building a big position every time the indicator gives me a signal at or below the current price. My first target is the 0.68 resistance, the previous bottom of the long-term range. I'm expecting a bit of a reaction there, then a push back up into the range, aiming for the top at 0.74. To confirm this final target, we'd need a strong weekly or monthly close above 0.68. Given that all these pairs, including the CHF futures chart (image below), are showing similar patterns at key resistance points (depeg high), this could turn out to be one of the best trades of the year. But it's crucial to wait for the right entry signals. I'll keep you posted as these positions develop. Hope you found this interesting!
Long
by TheFxAce
12