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CADJPY trade ideas

CADJPY: Fundamental Analysis - Bearish BiasCADJPY: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY (BEARISH Monthly) LEI INCREASING: CAD is slightly stronger than JPY from LEI Perspective. ENDO MIX DECREASING : JPY has more GREEN ENDO, meaning JPY is becoming Stroger than CAD. EXOs DECREASING: Score is gradually decreasing. GDP of JPY is imporving and Interest hike is anticipated. JPY is slightly more strong from CAD in terms of EXO, but because Global GDP is in RISK-ON stage and CAD has more power as well, hence EXOs are somewhat MIXED. EXO+LEI MIX INCREASING: FINAL SCORE DECREASING: Because of JPY ENDO strength. TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON ENDO/EXO: On Daily, overall CADJPY is giving mixed signals. But on a monthly level it go BEARISH because of ENDO and Final Score is DECREASING. EXO of JPY are improving but EXO of CAD are not too weak due to RISK-ON sutuation. Till CAD interest rate news, CADJPY will be Bearish. NEWS EVENTS Two major news events about INTEREST RATE for CAD and JPY on 11 Dec (CAD) and 19 Dec (JPY). 1. If the INTEREST RATE DIFFERENCE between (CAINTR - JPINTR) would decrease (i.e. Either CAD rate decrease or JPY rate Increase) then CADJPY would become Bearish, matching the seasonal of second half. 2. Similarly if the difference between the Real Interest Rates would decrease, then CADJPY would become Bearish, matching the seasonal of second half. CADJPY: SEASONAL ANALYSIS a. BEARISH: From 02 - 11 DEC (CONFLUENCE with Seasoanl. Depending upon CAD Interest Rate News on 11th, trend can change hence need caution) b. MIX: From 12 - 19 DEC (BULLISH If CAD Interest would not change. BEARISH if CAD interest will fall) c. BEARISH: From 19 - 24 DEC (JPY Interest Rate News is due on Dec 19th and If JPY Interest Rate would increase CADJPY will fall) COT RSI and COT FLIP ANALYSIS NON-COMMERCIALS 1. (Nov 26th 2024) COT RSI for CAD and JPY, is not close to 0 or 100 hence no trade bias. 2. For "Non-Comm LONG" positions: CAD on DECREASING trend. JPY on INCREASING trend. Hence JPY might become stronger in a 1-2 week timeframe. CONFLUENCE with SEASONALS and INTEREST RATE news. 3. For "Net Non-Comm": CAD is on a rise signalling increse in SHORT Positions. JPY is on fall signalling increase in LONG positions. 4. FLIP Data 4 Weeks Avg: CAD is SELL and JPY is BUY. Meaning JPY is becoming stronger in Dec 2024. 5. "Difference (Blue Line)": On DECREASING trend for CADJPY but the bearish trend needs to confirm. MIX/ SUMMARY ON COT ANALYSIS: COT report is hinting that CAD is gradually weakening and JPY is strengthening. Hence BEARISH Bias for CADJPY. QUATITATIVE ANALYSIS: No data is available for CADJPY in presentation. DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: Sideways to Bearish as per DOW. Confluence with Fundamental analysis. DIVERGENCE: Bearish divergence has already played. Volume Div: Has played alredy HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum is possible after bullsh retracement till 109. PATTERN: Head and shoulder pattern will be formed if price will reach shoulder level of 103. FIB: Daily Level 50.0% is tested as resistance. Retracement till 109 is expected for bearish continuation. S&R: Strong resistance at 111.44 and current price is 107.0. Next support is 102.9 and there is a high probability that it will be tested, which is also the Shoulder. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA and retest is expected. SL should be above EMA200. ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement. Scho-RSI: Below 20 and might go up slighty to create LH. DAILY TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS AFTER RETRACEMENT TO 109 (Fib 50%) SELL LIMIT: 108.9, SL: 111.815, TP1: 102.9, RR: 1:2 4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: Strong Bearish DIVERGENCE: Bullish Div present but waiting to be played HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish movement confirmed after retracement and making LH. FIB: Daily Level 23.6 is tested as resistance to make LH S&R: Resistance at 107.7 and current price is 106.69. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is re-opening Scho-RSI: Again turning down 4H TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS Entry: Market 106.66, SL: 108.721, TP1: 103.562, RR:1:2
by haroonraees
Lingrid | CADJPY Trend CONTINUATION Shorting OpportunityFX:CADJPY is currently making lower lows and lower closes, which indicates a bearish trend. The price is retracing toward the resistance zone and the upper boundary of the channel. Given that the major trend remains bearish, this pullback presents an opportunity to short the market. The price action is demonstrating a strong bearish movement, followed by weaker pullbacks, indicating that the bulls are not in control. I anticipate that the market will provide further opportunities for trend continuation in the bearish direction. My goal is support zone around 106.300 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
1
CADJPY1-Seasonality: In Seasonals we can observe the CADJPY pair remains Bearish. 2-Fundamentals(Exogenous Factors): Real GDP, IR Differential, BOP Relative, Stock Relative all are Increasing 3-Fundamentals(Endogenous Factors): for JPY factors are Increasing and CAD endogenous factors are mix to decreasing. 4-Forex Conditional Scoring: Data is mix or mix to decreasing for JPY & Increasing for CAD 5-Global LEI & GDP: is overall increasing Overall as we can say JPY index is in Buy and CAD index in also Buy, so we can expect to continue bearish trend
Short
by mhamzasaeedm
What I am seeing on a weekly chart, CADJPY, may surprise soon. You can see here a weekly chart for CADJPY, It's quite apparent the uptrend, and the price on a weekly has been in a huge rising wedge since March 2020, nearly 5 years ago. This year alone, there have been at least 3 moving averages cross-ups supportive of higher prices to continue, the one that interests me the most is the most recent MACD bullish cross-up on the signal-line. Fibonacci Retracement levels from recent weeks, all line up in price in that golden zone area between 50% and 38.2%. This is all lining up nicely on the weekly chart for long positions again soon on CADJPY. Now here is the Daily chart, the first thing that's apparent is the sell off this week, the chart also leaves a feeling that bearishness is set to continue. I differ and I think bulls will be buying this from the start of next week and price action will start to turn back to the upside at some point during next week. Finally, I want to take a look at a very low timeframe and see what is developing there.
Long
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
CAD/JPY Analysis – Potential Bearish SetupThe CAD/JPY pair is showing signs of bearish momentum within a descending channel on the 1H timeframe. The recent price action indicates potential for further downside, supported by technical confirmations: Descending Channel: The price is respecting the boundaries of a well-defined bearish channel, suggesting continued downward momentum. Weak Low Formation: The pair has formed a weak low at 106.229, potentially signaling the market's intention to grab liquidity below this level. Bearish Order Block: A supply zone near 107.150 is acting as strong resistance, aligned with the channel's upper boundary. Break of Structure (BOS) and ChoCH: Multiple BOS and ChoCH patterns indicate a bearish shift in market structure, adding confidence to the downside bias. RSI Confirmation: The RSI shows bearish divergence, further supporting the bearish outlook. 🔑 Plan: Entry Zone: Around 106.250 (near the weak low). Take Profit Targets: TP1: 105.502 TP2: 104.675 Stop Loss: Above the 107.150 resistance level to limit risk. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for traders looking to capitalize on CAD/JPY's bearish momentum. As always, risk management is key—trade responsibly and monitor for any unexpected market shifts.
Short
by Charts_M7M
CADJPY BullishFundamental Analysis Bullish CAD Factors: Oil Prices: Canada’s economy is heavily reliant on oil exports. Rising oil prices typically strengthen the CAD. If crude oil prices rebound, CADJPY could move higher. Economic Outlook: Recent data might indicate improving Canadian GDP growth or employment figures, supporting CAD strength. The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy stance (e.g., potential rate hikes or a neutral tone) can boost CAD sentiment. Bearish JPY Factors: BOJ Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, suppressing JPY strength. Low interest rates and yield curve control weaken the JPY compared to higher-yield currencies like CAD. Risk-On Sentiment: During December, markets often exhibit a "Santa rally" (bullish equities). Risk-on sentiment favors CAD over the safe-haven JPY. Seasonality: Historically, CADJPY trends bullish in mid to late December due to: Increased demand for risk assets. Seasonal oil demand, which strengthens CAD. Year-end positioning and reduced JPY demand in global markets. *************************************************************************** Technical Analysis The CADJPY chart indicates bullish divergence on the RSI. Price is making lower lows while RSI is making higher lows, suggesting a potential reversal. The pair is testing a strong support zone around 105.00–106.00. Historical price action shows that this level has acted as a significant support in the past. A falling wedge pattern is forming: This is a bullish reversal pattern, indicating that a breakout to the upside is probable. Bullish divergence near the oversold region signals buying pressure is increasing. Increasing volume near the support zone may confirm a breakout to the upside.
Long
by aamir98
2
CADJPY - 4hrs ( Sell Trade Target Range 200 : 400 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name :CAD/JPY Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close Scale Type : Large Scale ------ 🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Short ) ——————————— Bearish Break 109.200 area Reasons - Major Turn level - Visible Range Lvn - Channel Break - Day / week low - Choch Zone Bullish Reversal 105.800 Area Reasons - Major Turn level - Visible range Lvn - Choch Zone - Pattern Target - Fibo Reversal Cluster
Short
by GentleGoldenEngine
1
CADJPYHere is our view on CADJPY . Potential short opportunity. CADJPY has been following the downtrend for quite some time now. After its pullback to 107.100 the H4 is turning bearish again. After considering this we might continue following the trend and target lower levels such as 105.400 and 104.780 where our TP (Take Profit) is sitting at. If we break above our SL (Stop Loss) sitting at 107.485 we might visit higher prices. Our entry is at market price (current) sitting at 106.665 . PARAMETERS - Entry: 106.665 - SL: 107.485 - TP: 104.780 KEY NOTES - CADJPY is in a downtrend. - CADJPY has made its pullback to 107.100. - Breaks above our SL (Stop Loss) would result in higher prices and possible reverses. Happy trading! FxPocket
Short
by FxPocket
Focus on CADJPY: Pre-London Session AnalysisHi traders, The focus today is on CADJPY during the pre-London session. I believe we have a bullish setup forming, often referred to as a Late Session Reversal or Late Day Reversal. Price Analysis The bullish move in CADJPY began late during the New York session yesterday. The overall trend has been bearish, with the last leg showing a 3-wave extension below the accumulation zone. Interestingly, the downtrend's origin was marked by a momentum high, suggesting that price should, at a minimum, retest that level. So far, we've seen a completed bullish wavestructure with accumulation forming above High 3, indicating strong buyer interest. The plan is to buy into the next bullish wavestructure once price breaks above the current internal momentum high. Our initial target is 107.45 (the Momentum High). Fibonacci Analysis Using Fibonacci from the Low (0) to High (3), we see indications of further bullish potential. The High (5) or Internal Momentum High stalled at T1 (23.6% extension) of the 0-3 wave. This signals a likely continuation with a stronger second wave structure, aiming towards the Major Extension 1 (107.993) Wishing you a successful trading week!
Long
by Charts247TradingAcademy
1
Bearish drop?CAD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support. Pivot: 107.30 1st Support: 104.85 1st Resistance: 108.95 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
CAD/JPY Short Setup – Bearish Continuation ExpectedI’m observing a potential bearish continuation on CAD/JPY. The pair has recently broken key support levels and is trading below the 200 MA on the 4H chart, signaling strong downward momentum. Key Analysis Resistance Levels: The price is expected to retest the zone around 108-108.15, which could act as a strong resistance. If the price reject that level, then I will ENTER SHORT. Failing this, I am not entering. Support Levels: The first target is near 105.8–106.0. If broken, the price may head toward the 104.0–105.0 range. Confluence Factors: Weakness in CAD due to declining oil prices and risk-off sentiment could drive this move. JPY strength may increase as a safe-haven currency amid market uncertainty. Risk Management: Stop-Loss: Above the 108.5 resistance zone. Take-Profit: Incremental levels around 106.0 and 104.5.
Short
by zito82
CAD/JPY Short Setup – Bearish Continuation ExpectedI’m observing a potential bearish continuation on CAD/JPY. The pair has recently broken key support levels and is trading below the 200 MA on the 4H chart, signaling strong downward momentum. Key Analysis Resistance Levels: The price is expected to retest the zone around 108-108.15, which could act as a strong resistance. If the price reject that level, then I will ENTER SHORT. Failing this, I am not entering. Support Levels: The first target is near 105.8–106.0. If broken, the price may head toward the 104.0–105.0 range. Confluence Factors: Weakness in CAD due to declining oil prices and risk-off sentiment could drive this move. JPY strength may increase as a safe-haven currency amid market uncertainty. Risk Management: Stop-Loss: Above the 108.5 resistance zone. Take-Profit: Incremental levels around 106.0 and 104.5.
Short
by zito82