CAD/JPY: Diverging Fundamentals Signal More DownsideFundamental Analysis:
• The Non-Weighted Currency Index of the JPY has just broken out of a triangle to the upside, indicating JPY strength at the moment.
• Japan’s 10-year bonds have been in an uptrend for months and have just rejected the 50% Fibonacci level to the upside.
• The BoJ remains one of the most hawkish central banks, and Japan’s economy continues to show strength, marked by rising inflation since November 2024.
• Meanwhile, the Non-Weighted Currency Index of the CAD has been in a downtrend for a long time, signaling CAD weakness against other currencies.
• Canada’s 10-year bonds are currently range-bound, but the structure resembles a bearish flag, suggesting a possible breakdown below support.
• The Canadian economy is stagnating, and while unemployment has decreased compared to the previous month, it remains relatively high.
• Canadian inflation is slightly below the BoC’s target, which suggests that after their recent 25 bps rate cut, they may cut rates further to boost inflation back to 2%, stimulate the labor market, and increase GDP growth.
• Additionally, the downtrend in oil prices does not support CAD appreciation.
Technical Analysis:
• On the Weekly timeframe, we observe an ascending triangle that has just broken to the downside.
• On the Daily timeframe, sellers failed to push the price down significantly, indicating weak momentum on the breakout. This suggests a pullback/retest towards the trendline or Fibonacci levels is likely.
• The 50 SMA on the Daily chart is acting as strong resistance.
• The 200 SMA has also been rejected on the Daily timeframe.
• On the 4H timeframe, price is indeed retracing towards the trendline and/or Fibonacci levels.
• COT Report aligns with my bias.
• 82% of retail traders are positioned on the opposite side (buying).
