USDCAD I Daily CLS nested in W/M CLS Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
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🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
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CADUSD trade ideas
USD/CAD - Triangle Breakout (23.05.2025)The USD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.3792
2nd Support – 1.3760
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USDCAD: Price Approaching Buying Zone, Will DXY Bounce Back? The USDCAD pair has dropped significantly in recent times, particularly as the DXY index has plummeted. The extremely bearish nature of the DXY suggests that the price of USDCAD is melting. Both fundamental and technical indicators indicate a potential bullish price reversal for this pair, which could potentially hit our first take-profit area. This is a swing analysis, so please give time for the trade to get activated and for it to work out in our favour.
Please note that this analysis does not guarantee that the price will move as suggested. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own research.
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USDCAD Price Rebounding from Key Support as CAD WeakensUSDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal from key support around the 1.3700–1.3685 zone. The pair had been declining steadily but recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar — driven by soft economic data and oil market uncertainty — is starting to shift momentum back in favor of the U.S. Dollar. As long as support holds, there is room for a bullish continuation toward 1.3860 or higher in the near term.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Trend Structure: After a strong impulsive drop earlier in May, USDCAD formed a rounded bottom near 1.3685, followed by a corrective bounce. The recent retracement toward the support area is forming a potential higher low setup.
Support Zone:
Primary Support: 1.3700–1.3685
This is a clean structure zone and previous demand level. Price tested this area on May 24–25 and rebounded sharply.
Resistance Zone:
Short-Term Target: 1.3849–1.3860
This is the next major horizontal resistance, and aligns with previous price congestion before the latest decline.
Price Projection:
The chart suggests a bullish wave may develop from the support zone, targeting the 1.3860 level. If broken, a further move toward 1.3920 (May swing high) is possible.
Invalidation Level:
A daily close below 1.3680 would negate the bullish bias and signal a deeper correction or trend continuation lower.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Dollar (USD) Drivers:
Q1 GDP second estimate shows steady but modest growth.
Consumer Confidence fell recently, capping upside for the USD short term.
The Fed remains cautious, signaling that inflation risks persist — keeping interest rates elevated, which supports USD.
U.S. Treasury yields have been stable to slightly higher, also helping support the dollar.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Drivers:
Canada's balance of payments posted a larger-than-expected deficit in Q1 — a negative for CAD.
Oil prices, which heavily influence CAD, have been under pressure from global demand uncertainty.
Domestic demand is softening: flat retail sales and weak trade balance data reduce CAD appeal.
Bank of Canada is showing signs of policy caution, especially as inflation slows faster than in the U.S.
Conclusion
Outlook: Short-term bullish
USDCAD is likely to bounce from the 1.3700–1.3685 zone and retest 1.3849–1.3860 if CAD weakness continues.
Trade Plan (if trading):
Buy Zone: 1.3700–1.3685
Target: 1.3860
Stop Loss: Below 1.3680 (structure break)
The pair is fundamentally supported by CAD weakness and technically primed for a rebound — but confirmation from price action near support is critical.
USDCAD RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD!USDCAD 22/05 – KEY RETEST OR FRESH DOWNTREND? PRICE AT A CRUCIAL CROSSROAD!
🌐 MACRO BACKDROP:
Canada’s CPI and Retail Sales have come in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish consumer demand and reducing the probability of near-term rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.
Meanwhile, the USD is stabilizing, supported by steady U.S. Treasury yields after the Fed reaffirmed its “higher for longer” stance.
Oil prices, a major driver of the Canadian Dollar, have shown no significant breakout, further weakening CAD’s bullish momentum.
🔍 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW (H1–H4 Chart):
After hitting a key swing low at 1.3820, USDCAD is now retracing towards the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (1.3889 – 1.3913), which also aligns with:
The 200 EMA resistance (red line)
Previous structure rejection zone
➡️ This area is critical – it could act as a trap zone before price resumes downward or breaks to confirm a short-term bullish reversal.
📈 TRADE SETUPS:
🔻 SELL SETUP (HIGH PROBABILITY IF PRICE FAILS AT RESISTANCE):
Entry: 1.3900 – 1.3913
Stop Loss: 1.3930
Take Profit Targets: 1.3884 → 1.3859 → 1.3847 → 1.3820
🔹 BUY SETUP (IF PRICE HOLDS ABOVE THE BASE ZONE):
Entry: 1.3820 – 1.3823
Stop Loss: 1.3805
Take Profit Targets: 1.3847 → 1.3880 → 1.3913
⚠️ STRATEGY NOTES:
Be cautious during the New York session, as potential comments from Fed officials or crude oil updates could spike volatility.
This is a textbook case of “reaction vs. continuation” at a Fibo cluster – stick to confirmed candlestick signals to avoid false breakouts.
📌 FINAL THOUGHTS:
USDCAD is in a corrective rally after an extended decline. The 1.3913 zone is a key decision point. Sellers should watch for signs of exhaustion, while buyers can target short-term retracements if support holds at 1.3820.
USDCAD: Bearish Continuation Ahead 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD completed a consolidation within a horizontal range.
A violation of its support and a daily candle close below that
is a strong bearish signal.
I believe that the price may drop lower next week
and reach at least 1.3655 level.
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USDCAD: Strong Bearish Confirmation ?! 🇺🇸🇨🇦
I see an important sign of strength of the sellers on USDCAD
on an hourly time frame after a release of the today's US fundamentals.
The price violated a support line of a horizontal range and is retesting
that at the moment.
I believe that the price may drop at least to1.374 level soon.
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Bearish reversal?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3895
1st Support: 1.3792
1st Resistance: 1.3943
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/CAD - continues the downtrendOn USD/CAD , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 1.37540 and 1.38150 . It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Strong S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
USD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly LowsUSD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly Lows
The USD/CAD chart is currently showing clear signs of a bearish trend, characterised by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows (A→B→C→D→E→F→G).
This week’s decline suggests the downward structure may continue to develop, putting the current yearly low around the 1.3770 level at risk.
Why Is USD/CAD Falling?
On one hand, the US dollar remains under pressure:
→ Following last week’s downgrade of US debt ratings by Moody’s, investor attention has shifted to the country’s $36 trillion debt burden.
→ A tax bill backed by Donald Trump — recently passed in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives — could add trillions more to the national debt. Market participants may be increasingly concerned about the US’s fiscal outlook, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets.
On the other hand, the Canadian dollar has strengthened this week relative to other major currencies. Tuesday’s CPI figures from Canada came in above analysts’ expectations and may be seen as a sign that the inflation surge could delay any potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
In early May, we outlined a descending channel on the USD/CAD chart — a structure that remains relevant today.
The current price is hovering near the channel’s median line, which could indicate a temporary balance between supply and demand. However, with Canadian retail sales data due at 15:30 GMT+3 today, the risk of increased volatility remains high. A new weekly low cannot be ruled out.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDCAD: Bearish Outlook For This Week Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD will likely continue a bearish trend that the market
established in February.
A bearish breakout of a support line of a horizontal parallel
channel on a daily provides a strong confirmation.
Next goal - 1.3655
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USDCAD - Continuation Trading Using Structure, Fibs & VolumeWHAT I'M LOOKING AT
After ending the week with a lower low & a lower close below a recent level of structure support, I'm predicting a potential bearish trend continuation opportunity here on the $USDCAD.
MY PREDICTION
If this prediction is correct I would expect a move down to the $1.35 psychological level (or right around it) as we have a confluence from both our Fibonacci extension & a spike in horizontal volume.
HOW TO GET INVOLVED
To get involved in this move I'll be looking for a a potential retracement/pullback followed by a clear sign of reversal. The 2 price levels that I have on my radar are $1.3750's & $1.3800's
If you have any questions, comments, or just want to share your views, please do so below!
Akil
Potential bullish rise?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 1.3792
1st Support: 1.3688
1st Resistance: 1.3905
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bearish drop?USD/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3781
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss: 1.3893
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3629
Why we like it:
There is a support level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3787
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3703
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.3904
Why we lik eit:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.