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Canadian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D5 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D5 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled ✅15' order block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
1
USD/CAD: Time to Go Long?On the monthly chart, USD/CAD has found strong support, signaling a potential bullish continuation. With anticipated USD strength in the coming weeks, there’s a clear opportunity for the pair to move higher. We are targeting 1.40180 as the first objective, with the potential to extend towards 1.41500 if momentum continues. On the daily chart, the price is showing signs of weakness but also bullish intent, suggesting a possible retracement before a move higher. Ideally, a pullback into the 1.38490 – 1.38450 zone would offer a high-probability long entry.
Long
by Wiiso
1
USDCAD Monthly – Seller Initiative in PlayHey traders and investors! Take a look at the monthly chart of USDCAD. The price has been in a sideways range for quite some time, and the seller initiative is currently active. 📌 At the upper boundary of the range, a seller zone (red box) has formed, along with a seller-side Decision bar (IKC), which has now hit the buyer zone (blue box). ⚠️ With this structure, it makes more sense to look for short setups. This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). Wishing you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
The possible uprising of USDCAD, 4hr1. Technical Analysis • Trendline + Horizontal Support A clearly defined uptrend line, drawn from the March ’24 low through the August and April pullbacks, intersects the 1.3810–1.3850 area. That same zone has flipped from support to resistance and back again over the past year, marking it as a high‑probability reversal point. • Bullish Divergence On the 4‑hour RSI, the most recent price low dipped slightly below March’s low while RSI held higher. This divergence at a key support zone suggests selling momentum is exhausted and buyers may be stepping in. • Entry, Stops & Targets • Entry: Look for a clean bullish 4H candle (pin bar, engulfing bar, etc.) around 1.3820–1.3850, where trendline and horizontal support converge. • Stop: Place below 1.3680, under the April swing low and next structural demand area. • Target 1: 1.4168 (recent mid‑range swing high) • Target 2: 1.4467–1.4542 (major supply zone from late 2024) This setup offers roughly a 1:4 risk‑to‑reward ratio if both targets are reached. • Higher‑Timeframe Confirmation A daily close back above 1.3850 would reinforce this zone’s support role. Wait for that or a clear 4‑hour bullish pattern before committing. 2. Fundamental Analysis • Oil Price Pressure WTI has slid toward the low‑$60s on OPEC+ supply increases and softer Chinese demand. With Canada heavily reliant on oil revenues, lower crude prices tend to weaken CAD against USD. • Policy Divergence The Bank of Canada remains on hold at 2.75% and markets anticipate cuts later in 2025, while the Federal Reserve holds funds rates at 5.25–5.50%. That yield gap supports USD strength. • Growth Differential Canada’s Q1 GDP underperformed expectations—soft energy and mining output—whereas U.S. growth is still running near 2–3%. The disparity favors USD. • Risk Sentiment Elevated U.S.–China trade tensions and global growth concerns have nudged markets into risk‑off mode, a backdrop in which USD typically outperforms commodity‑linked currencies like CAD. Bottom Line With a multi‑touch trendline and horizontal flip level converging around 1.3820–1.3850, coupled with RSI divergence and dovish CAD fundamentals versus a still‑hawkish Fed, this is a textbook long setup. Wait for a convincing 4‑hour bullish signal in the zone, use a stop under 1.3680, and target 1.4168 first, then 1.4467–1.4542.
Long
by AnalysisExpert
Analysis of the USD/CAD Exchange RateAs of last Friday, the USD/CAD exchange rate traded in the range of 1.3800 - 1.3850, down 0.0217% compared to the previous day. The key resistance level was 1.3844, and the support level was 1.3760. In the short term, the fluctuations are dominated by the US non - farm payrolls data and trade policies: strong US employment data may support the rebound of the US dollar. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USDCADThis 4-hour chart of USD/CAD presents a bearish channel setup, signaling continuation of the downtrend. Here's a breakdown of the technical context: Trend & Structure Analysis: 🔻 Descending Channel: The price is respecting a downward-sloping channel (highlighted in red). Lower highs are marked by red arrows showing consistent rejection at the upper trendline. 🔹 EMA Resistance: EMA 9 (blue line) and EMA 21 (orange line) are above price and sloping downward. The 9 EMA is currently at 1.38199, reinforcing resistance in this area. 🔹 Horizontal Levels: Daily Resistance around 1.38554 has been rejected repeatedly. Immediate support lies around 1.37603. Fibonacci Levels & Bearish Projection: Fibonacci retracement from a recent swing shows: 0.382 ≈ 1.38241 0.5 ≈ 1.38133 (currently acting as resistance) Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets): 1.618 = 1.36972 2.618 = 1.35951 3.618 = 1.34930 4.236 = 1.34371 (aligns with Daily Demand Zone) Trade Setup Idea (Short Bias): Bias: Bearish while price stays below the descending channel’s upper boundary and EMA resistance. Entry: Near 1.3813–1.3824 (after a potential pullback) Stop-Loss: Above 1.3855 (daily resistance) Targets: TP1: 1.3760 TP2: 1.3697 TP3: 1.3595 TP4: 1.3437 (Daily Demand Zone)
Short
by Dailypaperfx888
USD-CAD Free Signal! Sell! Hello,Traders! USD-CAD is trading in a Downtrend and the pair is Consolidating below the Horizontal resistance Around 1.3880 so we are Bearish biased and we can Enter a short trade on Monday With the Take Profit of 1.3725 And the Stop Loss of 1.3908 Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
USDCAD Technical Expert Review - 3 May 2025✅ Market Structure Summary: The market entered a distribution phase, clearly forming equal highs and a head & shoulders–like pattern. After breaking out of the descending wedge, price surged upward to tap the upper supply zone (gray), sweeping liquidity before dropping sharply. We now see price reacting to a mid-demand zone, with another deeper demand zone resting below. 📍 Key Technical Zones: 🔹 Upper Gray Supply Zone: This zone was tapped after liquidity was grabbed from the equal highs. Strong bearish rejection with impulse candles confirms it as a valid shorting zone. It remains active and could act as a trap if retested without proper bullish structure. 🔹 Mid-Demand Zone (current reaction point): Price is currently reacting from this area. Initial bullish reaction is visible, but the reaction isn't strong enough yet to confirm reversal. Weak buyer pressure (wicky candles) suggests vulnerability. 🔹 Lower Demand Zone (main target if breakdown occurs): If the current zone fails, price will likely drop toward this deeper demand block, which hasn't been mitigated yet. This area could offer a more solid foundation for a bullish reversal. 🔮 Forecast Scenarios: 📉 Primary Bearish Scenario: If price fails to create higher highs from the current mid-demand zone: Expect a continuation down toward the lower gray demand zone. If that breaks, price could target the green higher-timeframe demand around 1.37200. 📈 Alternative Bullish Scenario: If price builds structure and forms a higher high from this zone: A short-term rally back toward the upper supply zone is possible. However, without a strong breakout, that area still holds risk for another sell-off.
Short
by collegepips
USDCAD short (the week of 05 May) – deserves considerationIf you did not see my analysis of last week (link attached) or were not convinced, take another look at this pair. During last week we did have a bearish move but essentially price merely consolidated. I have redrawn my trend line (to reflect the current market situation) and I see a possible retest of this line or perhaps a bigger retracement, but the bearish pressure is clearly visible. Price is below the 200 dma and the next major support is around 1.3610. Anything is possible in the markets but it is my opinion that this setup has a good risk/reward ratio. Link - This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Short
by Trading_Vista
USDCAD - pay attention to what this market is telling youI like what this chart is telling me, do you see the same? I took a short when that trend line got retested. The USD may be giving contradictory signals in different pairs, but for me this one is clear as day. I hope it works out as I think!! This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Short
by Trading_Vista
Canadian Dollar vs US Dollar: Recovering from The Bearish HugsIn previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key factors that have driven the U.S. outperformance over the past decade. The U.S. market dominance is largely due to the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows. Underperforming Internationally Markets outside the U.S. have faced challenges such as multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and the decline of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, U.S. equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also heavily dependent on the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three main themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the dominant global reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend involves a shift away from the centrality of the US dollar in global economic transactions and towards alternative currencies, assets or financial systems. Reasons for De-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses the dollar's dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of emerging economic powers: Emerging economies such as China and groups such as the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to US influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts such as the war in Ukraine have increased efforts by countries such as Russia to withdraw dollars from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the US dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce reliance on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization is challenging the entrenched role of the dollar, but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multi-polar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments in the US. Technical Test The main technical chart is presented in a weekly perspective, reflecting the performance of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD over the long term. With the positive dynamics of the relative strength indicator RSI(14) continuing, a breakout of flat resistance near the level of 0.72 is noted, with the prospect of a possible price increase to 0.80, parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to historical maximums, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
by PandorraResearch
1
USDCAD: New month, first green dayHello traders and welcome back to my channel, as always, my analysis are not a way to predict the market, but long and short are just a signal regarding the setup I'm looking for the day. Guessing the direction is not part of my job, entering setups in line with my thesis, that's my job! A little consideration before analysing this current week, the previous week, placed the monthly low, and retested it completing a pump and dump template. We are currently into the April monthly low and I'm looking for a long opportunity considering the potential volume trapped down low. But what happened this week and why I'm bullish? Monday, is the opening range of the week, weekly boundaries are now in place and short breakout traders are involved in the market. Tuesday, initial balance, expanded the range lower, triggering again shorts in the market. Wednesday, midpoint of the week, breakout lower again, stopping the traders long from the April monthly low and closing the day in breakout, going in consolidation into the end of the day. To me, this aspect is pretty important, triggering traders down low, with not really a strong momentum, typically gives me the signal of a potential reversal. Thursday, pretty much Asia and London session consolidated down low around the closing price, breaking the daily high for the first time during the week (which is to me a break in structure). The day closed as first green day, which is a potential long signal, especially when appears down low. Today, Friday, last day of the week and first day of the new month, I can see a potential dump and pump setting up for the day, but NFP is on schedule and it can mess up completely the overall setup. How I'm gonna take this trade? Well, first of all no action will be taken before news release at 8:30am NYT, after that, if the dump and pump is still intact during NY session, I will be willing to position myself in the market, accordingly with my entry criteria (typically bullish price action coiling for a long move). Can the market go lower? Absolutely yes! As I said, I do not predict any direction, but overall today I won't be interested in shorting USDCAD, because typically shoring into the weekly low, is not a very profitable trade opportunity, and I typically don't like to stuck in a trade for ages! :) I will update anyway the intraday overview during the NY session, starting in a couple of hours! Gianni
Long
by GianniPichichero
17