USDCAD Hello traders,
Since I didn't find any valid opportunities on my primary pairs today, I looked into some alternative setups — and USDCAD caught my eye 🙂
I spotted a potential sell opportunity, and I’ve already entered the trade. Below are the details of my entry and target levels:
🔍 Trade Details:
✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 / 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 1.37248
✔️ Take Profit: 1.37054
✔️ Stop Loss: 1.37345
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
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CADUSD trade ideas
USD/CAD Holds Near 2025 LowUSD/CAD Holds Near 2025 Low
As the chart shows, the USD/CAD exchange rate hit its lowest level of 2025 on 2nd June, nearing the 1.3680 mark. Although there was a partial recovery on 3rd June, it was not substantial.
These fluctuations reflect market participants’ cautious sentiment ahead of key announcements scheduled for today, 4th June:
→ At 15:15 (GMT+3), the ADP Employment Change figures will be released, offering insight into the US employment situation. Traders are concerned as the previous reading was only +61K — a sharp contrast to the consistent triple-digit increases seen throughout 2024.
→ At 16:45 (GMT+3), the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, analysts expect the overnight rate to remain unchanged at 2.75%, though surprises cannot be ruled out.
Technical Analysis of USD/CAD
Since the second half of April, the price has been moving within a downward channel (marked in red), largely influenced by tariff-related developments in US-Canada trade relations.
Bulls are attempting to prevent further decline, taking advantage of the support provided by the channel’s lower boundary. Note the sharp rebound following a failed bearish breakout (marked with an arrow), which suggests strong demand around the 1.3700 level.
On the other hand, bears have gained control over the 1.3800 level, based on the following:
→ The exchange rate found local support at this level on 29th May, but it was breached on 30th May.
→ The drop from 30th May was notably aggressive, indicating strong selling pressure.
Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that if, following today’s news, the USD/CAD rate remains within the 1.3700–1.3800 range, it may signal that supply and demand have reached a stable balance. This could suggest that the pair is ready to stabilise after the intense volatility seen in the first half of April.
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USDCAD ahead of BoC rate decision capped at 1.3840Today’s key focus is on the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Markets will react to signs of inflation, growth, or central bank policy shifts.
Q1 Labor Productivity: Tracks efficiency of Canadian workers—important for inflation outlook.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates at 2.75% due to sticky inflation, even as the economy slows.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 1.3840
Resistance Level 2: 1.3940
Resistance Level 3: 1.4020
Support Level 1: 1.3660
Support Level 2: 1.3580
Support Level 3: 1.3500
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day AheadKey Economic Events – Wednesday, June 4, 2025
🇺🇸 U.S.
ADP Jobs Report (May): A preview of private job growth; markets watch this ahead of Friday's official jobs report.
ISM Services PMI (May): Measures health of the U.S. services sector. A reading above 50 = growth.
Fed Speakers: Bostic and Cook will speak—markets listen for interest rate hints.
Beige Book: Fed’s regional economic summary, useful for understanding business trends.
🇬🇧 UK
Official Reserves (May): Change in the UK’s foreign reserves—can hint at FX market activity or interventions.
🇮🇹 Italy
Services PMI (May): Shows whether the Italian services sector is expanding or shrinking.
🇨🇦 Canada
Q1 Labor Productivity: Tracks efficiency of Canadian workers—important for inflation outlook.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates at 2.75% due to sticky inflation, even as the economy slows.
Summary:
Today’s key focus is on U.S. jobs and services data, the Fed’s tone, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Markets will react to signs of inflation, growth, or central bank policy shifts.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USD/CAD Setup _ Bearish Momentum BuildingThe USDCAD 45-minute chart shows a clear downtrend, with price breaking below a rising channel and retesting a previous support-turned-resistance zone. A bearish breakout has occurred, indicating strong selling momentum. The confluence of trendline resistance and horizontal zone rejection reinforces the bearish bias. Price action has failed to sustain above the marked resistance, suggesting further downside. The setup is based on a break-and-retest strategy, favouring short positions as long as price remains below the resistance zone.
Entry: 1.37200
1st Target: 1.36480
2nd Target: 1.36190
USDCAD Rebound from Key Support – Bullish Setup in PlayUSDCAD pair has reached a technical inflection point at key support around 1.3700, where it is attempting a rebound after several days of bearish momentum. With recent Canadian data showing underlying economic strain and the U.S. dollar reacting to rate expectations and tariff news, this area becomes crucial for the next directional move.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Support Level: Price has respected the horizontal support at 1.3700–1.3685, forming a possible double-bottom structure on the 4H chart.
Bullish Reversal Zone: The latest candle shows a strong rejection wick at the support zone, suggesting bullish interest. The structure aligns with a classic bullish reversal pattern.
Target Zones:
First TP: 1.3849 (previous high / supply zone).
Second TP: 1.3860–1.3870 (Fibonacci extension + minor resistance).
Invalidation (SL): Below 1.3685, further downside may open to 1.3632.
🧠 Fundamental Context
U.S. Side:
GDP and NFP data have recently come out mixed, reducing the immediate pressure on the Fed to hike rates further.
Tariff uncertainty and appeal plans by the Trump administration are increasing near-term USD volatility.
US bond yields are firming again, giving the dollar mild support.
Canada Side:
Canadian Q1 GDP disappointed at 0.1%, lower than expected.
BoC is likely to hold rates steady, but the economy shows weak business investment and softening consumption growth.
Crude oil, Canada’s key export, is still under pressure, slightly weakening CAD.
✅ Conclusion
This setup favors a short-term long on USDCAD from current levels, targeting the upper resistance zone at 1.3849–1.3860. A break and close above 1.3870 could extend toward 1.3900. However, caution should be exercised with upcoming U.S. labor and trade data that may fuel volatility.
USDCAD Price Rebounding from Key Support as CAD WeakensUSDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal from key support around the 1.3700–1.3685 zone. The pair had been declining steadily but recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar — driven by soft economic data and oil market uncertainty — is starting to shift momentum back in favor of the U.S. Dollar. As long as support holds, there is room for a bullish continuation toward 1.3860 or higher in the near term.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Trend Structure: After a strong impulsive drop earlier in May, USDCAD formed a rounded bottom near 1.3685, followed by a corrective bounce. The recent retracement toward the support area is forming a potential higher low setup.
Support Zone:
Primary Support: 1.3700–1.3685
This is a clean structure zone and previous demand level. Price tested this area on May 24–25 and rebounded sharply.
Resistance Zone:
Short-Term Target: 1.3849–1.3860
This is the next major horizontal resistance, and aligns with previous price congestion before the latest decline.
Price Projection:
The chart suggests a bullish wave may develop from the support zone, targeting the 1.3860 level. If broken, a further move toward 1.3920 (May swing high) is possible.
Invalidation Level:
A daily close below 1.3680 would negate the bullish bias and signal a deeper correction or trend continuation lower.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Dollar (USD) Drivers:
Q1 GDP second estimate shows steady but modest growth.
Consumer Confidence fell recently, capping upside for the USD short term.
The Fed remains cautious, signaling that inflation risks persist — keeping interest rates elevated, which supports USD.
U.S. Treasury yields have been stable to slightly higher, also helping support the dollar.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Drivers:
Canada's balance of payments posted a larger-than-expected deficit in Q1 — a negative for CAD.
Oil prices, which heavily influence CAD, have been under pressure from global demand uncertainty.
Domestic demand is softening: flat retail sales and weak trade balance data reduce CAD appeal.
Bank of Canada is showing signs of policy caution, especially as inflation slows faster than in the U.S.
Conclusion
Outlook: Short-term bullish
USDCAD is likely to bounce from the 1.3700–1.3685 zone and retest 1.3849–1.3860 if CAD weakness continues.
Trade Plan (if trading):
Buy Zone: 1.3700–1.3685
Target: 1.3860
Stop Loss: Below 1.3680 (structure break)
The pair is fundamentally supported by CAD weakness and technically primed for a rebound — but confirmation from price action near support is critical.
USDCAD: Growth & Bullish Continuation
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the USDCAD pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Could the Loonie reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 127.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 1.3767
1st Support: 1.3634
1st Resistance: 1.3856
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Disclaimer:
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USDCAD – Sell the Reversal at Key ResistanceTrade Idea
Type: Sell Limit
Entry: 1.3750
Target: 1.3650
Stop Loss: 1.3800
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2:1
Duration: Intraday
Expires: 04/06/2025 06:00
Technical Overview
The recent correction higher is likely complete, with price testing strong resistance near 1.3750.
A move through 1.3700 will confirm renewed bearish momentum.
This area aligns with multiple technical resistance levels, making it a strategic zone to initiate shorts.
The measured move target is 1.3625, but this setup looks to capture the move to 1.3650 for a higher probability win.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TECHNICAL APPROACH - USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D23 Y25🔥👀USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D23 Y25
TECHNICAL HOTPICK ! 💥💥
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅4H order block rejection
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure to be identified
✅15’ order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X