USDCAD | 19.12.2024SELL 1.44300 | STOP 1.45000 | TAKE 1.43400 | A breakout and price consolidation below the level of 1.44000 will allow the trading instrument to continue its downward dynamics to the area of 1.43400-1.41600.
CADUSD trade ideas
FOMC rate meeting is unlikely to deter USDCAD buyersIn October 2024, USDCAD triggered a complex inverse head-and-shoulders pattern forming for 747 days. This pattern suggests a potential move of 777 pips to the upside, with the pair still roughly 375 pips away from the 1.4672 target.
In the short term, if the price dips but holds above last Thursday's low of 1.4130, buyers will likely step in and push the price higher.
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OPPORTUNITY FOR SELL USDCADWe have these indicators for SELL opportunity:
- Reflection from the top of the parallel channel
- Strong resistance from two peaks (2016 and 2020)
- Low volume to continue the current direction
- Return/re-test to 1M high
We define 3 goals:
TP 1 = 40 pips
TP 2 = 100 pips
TP 3 = 200 pips
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Goal 🎯: 1.46500
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USD/CAD 4H Timeframe AnalysisUSD/CAD 4H Timeframe Analysis
Trend Analysis:
The USD/CAD pair remains in an uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe. The price recently broke above the minor key resistance at 1.4400, forming a strong bullish candle that closed above this critical level. However, an inverted hammer followed, signaling potential market hesitation and a possible reversal. The price entered a manipulation phase, moving lower to grab stop-loss orders below the minor resistance level before showing signs of recovery.
The trendlines plotted for key support and resistance levels suggest potential opportunities for reversals or breakouts in either direction.
Price Action Expectation:
Our objective is to wait for the price to break above the minor key resistance at 1.4400 again, confirming bullish continuation:
Entry Plan: Place a buy stop order at 1.44020 to ensure entry upon confirmation of the breakout.
Stop Loss: Position below the liquidity grab at 1.43340 for risk management.
Take Profit: Target the next resistance at 1.45400, yielding a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 2:1.
Fundamental Insights:
The US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction after Friday’s pullback from a two-year high, buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift, signaling a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. This outlook supports elevated US Treasury yields, providing a tailwind for the greenback.
Conversely, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to face pressure due to domestic political uncertainties and the Bank of Canada’s dovish stance. The BoC recently projected slower growth in Q4 and highlighted concerns about potential new tariffs on Canadian exports to the US, creating an unclear economic outlook. Moreover, Statistics Canada reported weaker-than-expected retail sales for October and stagnation in November.
However, an uptick in crude oil prices lends some support to the commodity-linked CAD, potentially capping USD/CAD’s upside.
News Consideration:
Later today, the Canadian GDP m/m report is scheduled, with a forecasted growth rate of 0.2%. This release could significantly impact the USD/CAD pair, as any deviation from the forecast may trigger volatility.
Trade Setup:
Trade Type: Buy Stop
Entry Price: 1.44020
Stop Loss: 1.43340
Take Profit: 1.45400
Additional Considerations:
Key Levels: Monitor price behavior around 1.4400 and 1.43340, as these levels will guide short-term direction.
Risk Management: Use proper position sizing to maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, considering the potential volatility from the GDP release.
Conclusion:
USD/CAD shows bullish potential if the price confirms a breakout above 1.44020. The fundamental backdrop supports USD strength, while CAD remains vulnerable to political and economic concerns. Watch for price confirmation and market reactions to the GDP release to optimize trade execution. Targeting the 1.45400 resistance level offers a compelling opportunity, provided risk is managed effectively.
#001 New2 DCA LONG USDCADOk, I decided to close all of my positions previously opened in NEW DCA and begin a new log because I want to tweak some things and I feel that those opened positions that goes into drawdown and then into profit isn't helping me mentally. So, I closed all of them out for maybe 3 or 4% loss, maybe at most 10$ loss, I am not sure.
New tweaks are as mentioned below,
- Buy when price is trending up, short when price is trending down.
- Pick the strongest products only for watchlist and potential trading.
How do we determine if something is trending up, or down, and how do we determine which is the strongest?
On the bottom left of tradingview chart, theres the 5D button. Or in the tradingview app, there's a overview option when we click into any pair. Select 5D range. The glowing price movement will tell you if price is trending up, down or sideways.
It is quite easy to tell which one is trending, ranging, and their strength.
If one is doing it on laptop browser, then, click on the bottom left's 5D range button, and then use a vertical line to mark the first day of the 5D range (from the left most).
Then, zoom in or out to fit the entire 5 days on the chart, and try to not show as much of the price movements on the left beyond the 5D range. This is to prevent clouding ones judgement.
Strong price movements should be in your face. It moves in one direction so strongly you just know it. Besides that, another clue is price making higher high, higher low for up trend and lower low and lower high for down trend.
Avoid ranging or weak trending markets.
Go for the strongest movements only.
Now that we have understood the settings and preferred price action, we are going to look at chart type next.
I am going to keep it simple. I will be using the line chart for the most part.
Avoid clouding your judgment with too much moving parts. There will be time where candlesticks come into play but those are not the rule. And even if we forgo candlesticks completely, we are not missing out anything at all, because the current price and the previous closed prices is all we need to know about how the market feels in the end.
Third, is to mark out the previous higher highs and higher lows, vice versa for short. I would like to think it is always easy and very clean movements. But that should actually be the fact. Because if price isn't moving cleanly, then if we choose to be a part of the movement, we are just entering into states of unrest within our minds. And then we begin to have other thoughts and bs and we change things again.
I hope that this changes I am going to implement would be the last for a long time.
Besides the forex market, there's gold and stocks, indices. I shouldn't be focusing on the forex market all the time. If there's prettier flowers else where I should go to those gardens and admire other peoples flowers too. Possibly supporting their bouquet business too because it is all about "Guan Xi".
Anyway, I hope this is the last.
I have been missing out on tons of action on other products such as bitcoin, GameStop, NVDA, Gold, JPY carry trade, and other shit. I have to broaden my worldly outlook, instead of hoping that only this shit works out.
And I only focused on this piece of shit because I have limited funds, but now that my partner is also with me on this trading and investing journey, and also that I am feeling much much better mentally wise after years of suffering, I should chase what moves instead of hoping I could heal the dead horse with my superior post flop folding skills.
1712SGT 18122024
USDCAD-SELL strategy 3 hourly GANN SQThe pair broke through 1.4250 zone, and now we are near the next resistance level 1.4340 zone.
It is heavily overbought, like so many other pairs. Stochastic high and MFI well quite extreme, so over time we will see corrective action, is my viewpoint (and no issue when we disagree).
Strategy SELL @ 1.4310-1.4335 area and take profit near 1.4178.
USDCAD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDCAD is moving UP
The chart broke through the dynamic resistance, which now acts as support.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
USDCAD, Breakout and follow throughUSDCAD / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
The market shows strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, The price is rejecting the Previous all-time high. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the breakout zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target:
First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation.
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
USDCAD Is Still BullishAfter the USDCAD had recently risen significantly, the exchange rate is now correcting. This healthy movement offers us the opportunity to enter a new long position in the bullish order block. The momentum in USDCAD is clearly pointing upwards in the medium to long term and retailer sentiment is decidedly bearish, which suggests a further bullish impulse.
A bearish order block just below the recent highs would be a good price target for a long trade.
Long trade
4Hr TF overview
Trade Setup Breakdown:
Trade Type: Buyside (Long position)
Date: Monday, December 16, 2024
Time: 5:00 AM
Timeframe: 4-hour (4H) chart
Session: Tokyo to London (AM session)
Entry 1.42471
Profit level 1.45600 (2.20%)
Stop level 1.42119 (0.25%)
RR 8.89
Reason: Overlooking the 4Hr TF and monitoring USDCAD indicates buyside momentum at this time.
USD/CAD - Very overbought on good USD news, slight correctionHi guys, short term correction expected on the USD CAD , hence it broke out of the ascending channel which we used before hand , and currently on the RSI it is slightly overbought on 1H and 4H time frame.
Entry - 1.43834
Target : 1.43034
80 pips to be caught +-
check the trendIt is expected that the correction trend will end in the specified support ranges and we will witness the start of the upward trend.
If the price crosses the green support range, the above scenario will be invalid.
USD/CAD - Buy Limit Opportunity at Key Liquidity ZoneUSD/CAD has swept liquidity below a significant support level, creating a high-probability buy limit setup. This price action suggests that the market has absorbed selling pressure, signaling a potential bullish reversal from this zone.
Key Observations:
Liquidity Grab: A dip below a key support level cleared stop-losses, trapping sellers and setting the stage for a bounce.
Market Structure: Early signs of bullish rejection and a shift in momentum suggest a recovery is imminent.
Optimal Entry: A buy limit at targets the liquidity zone for a potential upward move.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Buy limit at , anticipating a bounce from the liquidity zone.
Stop Loss: Below the recent liquidity sweep to manage risk effectively.
Take Profit: Targeting resistance levels around to capture the bullish move.
Risk Management:
This setup takes advantage of liquidity dynamics for a strategic entry, but disciplined risk management is key. Keep position sizing appropriate and monitor price action for additional confirmation of bullish intent.
USD/CAD steady ahead of retail salesThe Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4384, down 0.11% at the time of writing. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level since March, touching 1.4435.
Canada retail sales have risen for four consecutive months and the trend is expected to continue today, with a market estimate of 0.7% m/m.
The economy outlook remains gloomy and the Bank of Canada is expected to continue lowering rates in order to boost the weak economy. The BoC has been aggressive, cutting rates five times since June for a total of 175 basis points. The central bank slashed the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% last week but signaled that it plans a "more gradual approach to monetary policy", which means we can expect 25-bp increments in rate cuts if there are no surprises in inflation or employment data.
The "gradual approach" sounds a lot like what we're hearing from the Federal Reserve, which surprised the markets on Wednesday when it lowered its forecast to just two rate cuts in 2025, compared to four cuts in the September projection. The US dollar soared after the rate announcement and the Canadian dollar took it on the chin with losses of around 1% on Wednesday.
The incoming Trump administration could be a major headache for Canada, as Trump has pledged to slap tariffs on Canadian products. The Canadian government has announced enhanced security measures at its border with the US, hoping these moves will encourage Trump to suspend his tariff plans. Canada's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned earlier this month after a bitter row with Prime Minister Trudeau, which has added political uncertainty that could weigh on the wobbly Canadian dollar.
USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.4404 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.4463
1.4341 and 1.4282 are the next support levels
USDCAD Analysis:USDCAD has been trending strongly upwards over the past 3 months, with price action indicating a potential push towards the weekly high to seek liquidity. Notably, the previous resistance level has flipped into support, providing a bullish foundation.
From a fundamental perspective, the latest COT report reveals that non-commercials are aggressively selling their Canadian dollar positions. Given the USD/CAD pairing, a weaker CAD suggests further upside potential. As a result, we may witness more explosive moves to the upside in the USDCAD pair.
USDCAD BUY OR SELL BIASAs we can see price is clearly is a strong uptrend on USDCAD, price has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern which entells price to either go long or short. If is buy , price has to go above the supply zone and retest and long and for sell price has to go break the demand zone and retest then we short. No confirmation, no entry 🚫
correctionIt is expected that the correction trend will form up to the specified support range. Then, given the price behavior in this range, there is a possibility of the beginning of the upward trend
USDCADUSDCAD is going to reversal from here.
Bearish divergence also shown in RSI.
market sentiment is also bearish .
We sell at CMP.
USDCAD upside target 1.4560On the weekly chart, USDCAD maintains an upward trend, and bulls are strong. USDCAD may continue to rise. Currently, we can pay attention to the support around 1.4270. If it falls back and does not break, we can consider continuing to buy. The upward target is around 1.4560.
Do you think we might be witnessing a target shooting?
Hi dears
How are you?
If the orange line breaks down, it could be an attractive target.
What do you think, buddy?
