CADUSD trade ideas
USD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly LowsUSD/CAD Rate Drops Towards Yearly Lows
The USD/CAD chart is currently showing clear signs of a bearish trend, characterised by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows (A→B→C→D→E→F→G).
This week’s decline suggests the downward structure may continue to develop, putting the current yearly low around the 1.3770 level at risk.
Why Is USD/CAD Falling?
On one hand, the US dollar remains under pressure:
→ Following last week’s downgrade of US debt ratings by Moody’s, investor attention has shifted to the country’s $36 trillion debt burden.
→ A tax bill backed by Donald Trump — recently passed in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives — could add trillions more to the national debt. Market participants may be increasingly concerned about the US’s fiscal outlook, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets.
On the other hand, the Canadian dollar has strengthened this week relative to other major currencies. Tuesday’s CPI figures from Canada came in above analysts’ expectations and may be seen as a sign that the inflation surge could delay any potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
In early May, we outlined a descending channel on the USD/CAD chart — a structure that remains relevant today.
The current price is hovering near the channel’s median line, which could indicate a temporary balance between supply and demand. However, with Canadian retail sales data due at 15:30 GMT+3 today, the risk of increased volatility remains high. A new weekly low cannot be ruled out.
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Trading Opportunity: USDCAD Long SetupGood morning All,
I've been analysing the USDCAD pair and noticed it's been oversold for some time. It just reached the midband of the falling channel yesterday, which suggests a potential long opportunity to me. I believe this setup offers a favourable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2. Here are the details:
- Entry Point: 1.3734
- Take Profit (TP): 1.3888
- Stop Loss (SL): 1.3657
Wishing you all the best with your trades!
Ehsan
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance>The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 1.3904
1st Support: 1.3781
1st Resistance: 1.3988
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop off overlap resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 50% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 1.3861
1st Support: 1.3767
1st Resistance: 1.3912
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/CAD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the USD/CAD with the target of 1.375 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
USDCAD downtrend continuation capped at 1.4060The USDCAD pair is exhibiting a bearish sentiment, reinforced by the ongoing downtrend. The key trading level to watch is at 1.4060, which represents the current intraday swing low and the falling resistance trendline level.
In the short term, an oversold rally from current levels, followed by a bearish rejection at the 1.4060 resistance, could lead to a downside move targeting support at 1.3780, with further potential declines to 1.3730 and 1.3630 over a longer timeframe.
On the other hand, a confirmed breakout above the 1.4060 resistance level and a daily close above that mark would invalidate the bearish outlook. This scenario could pave the way for a continuation of the rally, aiming to retest the 1.4080 resistance, with a potential extension to 1.4160 levels.
Conclusion:
Currently, the USDCAD sentiment remains bearish, with the 1.4060 level acting as a pivotal resistance. Traders should watch for either a bearish rejection at this level or a breakout and daily close above it to determine the next directional move. Caution is advised until the price action confirms a clear break or rejection.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USD/CAD Bulls Emerge at Confluent SupportUSD/CAD has responded to confluent support at 1.3714/29 - a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the September rally and the 38.2% retracement of the 2021 advance. Note that the 25% parallel of the descending pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few days and a break / close below is needed to fuel the next leg of the decline / mark downtrend resumption.
Initial resistance is eyed with the 61.8% retracement of the late 2023 advance / May open at 1.3794/98 and is backed closely by the median-line. Rallies should be limited to this slope IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break / close below this pivot zone exposing subsequent objectives at 1.3590- 1.3614 and 1.3504/23 . Broader bearish invalidation extends into the 200-day moving average at 1.3990-1.4019 .
-MB
USDCAD Short Setup – Support Broken, More Downside Ahead?Bias: ✅ Strong Sell
Timeframe: 4H
Pair: USDCAD
Week: 26–30 May 2025
⸻
🔍 Technical Setup:
USDCAD just broke a major support zone around 1.3732, opening the door for continued downside into the next demand zone.
• Entry: Break and retest or continuation below 1.3732
• Stop Loss: Above resistance at 1.3813
• Take Profit: Next support near 1.3467
• Risk-Reward Ratio: ~3.9R
• Structure: Lower highs, clean breakdown, bearish momentum
⸻
🧠 Macro Confluence:
• 📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed, weak macro outlook (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓)
• 🇨🇦 CAD Recovery: Hawkish BoC, conditional score surged from 2 → 10
• 📊 Seasonals: CAD favored
• 🧾 COT: Net bearish shift in USD, CAD corrective phase expected
• ⚠️ News Risk: CAD GDP & US GDP this week could accelerate the move
⸻
⚠️ Risk Notes:
• Watch for FOMC and GDP reports before scaling positions
• Break & close confirmed – trail stops on lower timeframe
⸻
📌 Momentum is in favor – ride the breakdown, but stay data-aware.
Share setups or feedback below 👇
USDCAD short Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Structure point Weekly
Around Psychological Level 1.38500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5.11
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
How to Rob the Bank (of Canada) – Legally! (USD/CAD Swing Trade)🌍 Hello Global Traders! 🌟
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Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Place your Thief SL at the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (1.38500) for scalping or day trades.
📍 Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open orders.
Target 🎯: Aim for 1.42500
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