USDCAD Long 4/24/2025USD/CAD Long Setup – 4H Demand Bounce + Fib Confluence Ahead of Jobless Claims
Looking to long USD/CAD based on a confluence of technical structure and macro catalysts.
Daily Chart:
Yesterday printed a bullish engulfing candle, signaling strong buyer intent and continuation of the broader uptrend.
4H Chart:
Price pulled back into a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent leg, aligning perfectly with a well-defined 4H demand zone.
Importantly, no 4H candle has closed below the body of the previous bullish engulfing, suggesting buyers are holding control.
Trade Expectation:
Expecting this to be a correction within a trend, not a reversal — looking for a continuation that retests the highs and pushes for a breakout beyond 1.3900.
Fundamental Catalyst:
Today’s U.S. unemployment claims release will be the key driver. A lower-than-expected print could fuel USD strength and send this pair accelerating to new short-term highs.
Target Zone:
First target is a retest of the recent high; extended target is a break above 1.3900, which opens the door to higher timeframe expansion.
Stop: Just below the 4H demand zone, respecting the structural invalidation of the Fib level.
This is a clean trend-continuation play with both technical alignment and fundamental tailwinds.
