USDCAD Bullish Setup – Watching Key Breakout LevelUSDCAD has tested the lower trend line and is showing signs of a potential reversal. The overall trend remains bullish, but additional confirmation is needed before entering. I’ll be looking to go long above 1.39734, which would signal a strong breakout continuation.
🔹 Trend: Bullish
🔹 Entry Idea: Long above 1.39734
🔹 Confirmation Needed: Break and retest or strong bullish momentum
🔹 Support Zone: Around the trend line
🔹 Resistance: Monitor previous highs once breakout occurs
Let me know your thoughts or drop your chart in the comments below!
CADUSD trade ideas
Cautious Bulls Meet Trendline Test: USD/CAD Eyes FOMC CatalystCMCMARKETS:USDCAD OANDA:USDCAD USD/CAD extended its recovery for the third day, trading near 1.3833 on modest USD strength following upbeat U.S. data. However, fiscal worries and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025 may limit upside momentum. Traders are cautious ahead of the FOMC Minutes and U.S. PCE/GDP data, while firmer Canadian inflation and oil prices could support the CAD.
Technically, the pair remains within a broad downward channel and is now approaching key resistance at 1.3856, aligned with the descending trendline. A clear rejection here could spark a bearish continuation toward 1.3711 support. A breakout above 1.3937 would invalidate the bearish channel and suggest trend reversal.
Resistance : 1.3856 , 1.3937
Support : 1.3711 , 1.3809
USD/CADThe pair has been in a clear downtrend, forming a bottom around the 1.3665 area, followed by a noticeable bullish rebound with consecutive bullish candles.
Key Support Zone:
1.3665 – Represents the recent bottom and a significant reversal point.
Upcoming Resistance Levels:
1.3818: A horizontal resistance that has been tested multiple times and is close to the current price.
1.3860 – 1.3880: A strong resistance zone, marking a previous reversal point.
1.3920 – 1.3950: The next resistance zone after a breakout, corresponding to a prior lower high.
Bullish Scenario (currently more likely):
If the upward momentum continues, price may reach the 1.3860 zone and potentially break above it toward 1.3920, provided it stabilizes above 1.3818.
Bearish Scenario (if the rally fails):
If the price forms a reversal candle near 1.3818 and fails to break through, a pullback may occur toward 1.3730, and possibly retest 1.3665.
Hourly bearish retraceFibonacci tool pegged to a high and low where the retrace levels have confluence with previous swing support and resistances.
RSI getting close to overbought levels.
The recent higher lows and higher highs could be setting up for a bear flag.
How high will this bearish retrace go?
USDCAD; Price Approaching Buy Zone read caption PULL BACKThe recent pullback in the USDCAD pair aligns precisely with the key resistance and support zones we identified in our earlier technical analysis. As seen in our chart, price action respected the trendline and Fibonacci retracement levels, signaling a potential reversal or consolidation phase. This movement reinforces the significance of combining chart patterns, momentum indicators, and historical levels when analyzing the market. Traders following our analysis would have anticipated this shift and prepared accordingly. For a deeper dive into our methodology and projections, take a closer look at the chart and see how the technical framework played out in real time.
USDCAD: Weekly AnalysisThe last week sharp fall of the pair was not irrelated to US-Iran negotiations.
Possible war in Persian Gulf means higher prices in oil and more raises in CAD.
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confrimation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 23 May 2025
- USDCAD reversed from strong resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 1.3755
USDCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance area between the round resistance level 1.4000 intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from March.
The downward reversal from this resistance area started the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2).
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3755 (the former low from the start of May and the target for the completion of the active ABC correction (2)).
USDCAD Massive Long! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
USDCAD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.3814 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
My Stop Loss - 1.3784
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.3877
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Buyers are expected to step in at this zone and drive price upI'm closely monitoring USD/CAD as it approaches a significant support zone between 1.3820 and 1.3740. This area has historically prompted bullish rebounds, and I anticipate that buyers will defend it.
With confirmation, I plan to enter a long position, placing a stop loss just below 1.3740 to manage risk. Initial targets might include the 1.3900 level, aligning with previous resistance. Then, we can expect the 1.40 area for full TP.
However, if the price breaks decisively below 1.3740, it would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest further downside.
USDCAD BULLISH FOR 54PIPUSDCAD Bullish Forecast (54 Pips)
Current Price: Check live price (e.g., ~1.3650).
Target: 1.3704 (+54 pips from entry).
Stop Loss (SL): Below support (e.g., ~1.3620, 30-pip risk).
Key Levels:
Support: 1.3630–1.3620 (pullback zone).
Resistance: 1.3700 (psychological level), then 1.3750.
Bullish Drivers:
USD Strength: If Fed signals hawkish policy or risk-off mood lifts USD.
Oil Price Drop: Weak crude oil (CAD negative) could boost USDCAD.
Technical Breakout: Rising from a trendline or moving average (e.g., 50 EMA).
Trade Plan:
Entry: On pullback to 1.3630–1.3640 or breakout above 1.3670.
Exit: Take profit at 1.3704 (scaled exits optional).
Risk Management: 1:2 R/R (30-pip SL, 54-pip TP).
What is the upside potential above the 1.39 level?Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the closely watched April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data during the North American trading session. As a key inflation indicator, this data will significantly impact the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada (BoC). The daily chart of USD/CAD exhibits notable technical pattern shifts:
Technical Analysis
Breakout and Resistance Zone Test
The pair has recently breached the 1.3900 psychological level and is currently testing a critical resistance zone.
A double-bottom reversal pattern formed after prices rebounded from the recent low of 1.3749, signaling potential bullish momentum for a trend reversal.
The MACD indicator has shown a decisive upward pivot, with the DIFF line crossing above the DEA line (forming a "golden cross"), and the histogram shifting from green to red, confirming that upward momentum is accumulating.
Market Sentiment
Current market sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism, as traders weigh technical bullish signals against the potential fundamental volatility triggered by the CPI release.
Key Implications of CPI Data
Higher-than-Expected Inflation: If the CPI exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the BoC’s hawkish stance, potentially pushing USD/CAD lower toward the 1.3850–1.3800 support level.
Lower-than-Expected Inflation: A softer CPI may fuel expectations of BoC policy easing, driving USD/CAD toward the 1.4000–1.4050 resistance zone.
Trading Considerations
Bullish Scenario: A daily close above 1.3950 would validate the breakout, targeting 1.4080 (the measured move derived from the double-bottom pattern).
Bearish Scenario: A rejection at the resistance zone, combined with weak USD momentum, could trigger a retracement to 1.3820 (the neckline of the double-bottom).
Risk Management: Traders are advised to set tight stop-loss orders around key levels (e.g., below 1.3880 for bullish positions, above 1.3980 for bearish positions) ahead of the data-induced volatility.
The CPI report represents a pivotal inflection point, with the potential to either reinforce the technical breakout or prompt a trend reversal. Market participants should monitor real-time data releases and subsequent BoC communications for directional cues.